The future of energy generation and storage

We have talked about it before, but the V2G trails are starting to show results.

Smurf1976 said:

Meanwhile they're having some trouble in South Africa:

View attachment 128835

This was a fully operational power station prior to the incident, it's not a demolition site, indeed it's only been in service since 2015 to my understanding.

Unit capacity is (or was.....) 794MW using steam from a coal-fired boiler with six identical units in the station commissioned progressively 2015 - 19.

Hydrogen explosion caused by human error apparently.

It's not my photo obviously, just one that's being circulated of the incident.

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The sparkies wouldn't have been happy if they were checking for homopolar circulating currents on the shaft. ?

I bet the guys in the control room said, "did you hear something".?
Seriously though, was anyone hurt? That is a terrible incident, hopefully no one was on the turbine floor or basement. What a mess.

sptrawler said:

Seriously though, was anyone hurt?

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No idea.

I was sent the photo headed "Incident in SA" - now that had my attention real quick.

Then I realised it was South Africa not South Australia.....

Seriously, haven't heard if anyone hurt or not but if work was being done well there'd have been people around so it's definitely a possibility. Even just the falling roofing sheets could kill someone if they were unlucky.

Smurf1976 said:

No idea.

I was sent the photo headed "Incident in SA" - now that had my attention real quick.

Then I realised it was South Africa not South Australia.....

Seriously, haven't heard if anyone hurt or not but if work was being done well there'd have been people around so it's definitely a possibility. Even just the falling roofing sheets could kill someone if they were unlucky.

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Looks like someone wasn't watching the H2 to seal oil DP.

More indicators that times are getting tough for the coal generators.
From the article:
“Operating conditions were challenging this year due to low prices and the impacts of COVID-19 across our key commodities of electricity, natural gas and oil,” Origin chief executive Frank Calabria said on Thursday.

“Energy Markets headwinds are expected to persist into financial year 2022, though this should be largely offset by the strong performance of our integrated gas business.”
The company declared an unfranked final dividend of 7.5¢ a share, payable to shareholders of record on 8 September.
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Origin and other top power utilities have been facing enormous pressure as the continued flood of cheap power from large-scale wind and solar farms and rooftop solar panels sends daytime wholesale power prices plunging to levels where coal and gas-fired generators are increasingly unable to compete. This year, EnergyAustralia brought forward the closure of Victoria’s Yallourn facility to 2028, four years ahead of schedule.
“Our immediate focus is on capital discipline and cost management to continue to build balance sheet resilience, with a rebound in energy markets earnings expected in financial year 2023,” Mr Calabria said.

To further drive home the point, of where thermal coal generation is at in Australia, BHP is having trouble giving a coal mine away.
My guess is Kurri Kurri had better get built sooner, rather than later, how long companies are going to keep the lights on with loss making generation is anyone's guess.
From the article:
Mining giant BHP would pay a bidder about $275 million to take the biggest coal mine in NSW off its hands even as prices of the fossil fuel soar to levels not seen since 2008.

BHP has been shopping its Mt Arthur coal mine near Muswellbrook for more than a year, and on Wednesday slashed its value from about $550 million to a liability of $275 million.
The reduction, coming seven months after it dropped $1.6 billion off the book value of the mine, is also an indication of the huge costs of rehabilitation the new owner will have to bear, analysts said. These include $40 million owed to Muswellbrook Shire Council for a road that BHP dug up, a council official said.
Thermal coal prices are running about $220 a tonne for Hunter Valley coal. Wood Mackenzie has a long-run price target of about $110 per tonne, while others have it closer to $82, Mr Simington said.

sptrawler said:

To further drive home the point, of where thermal coal generation is at in Australia, BHP is having trouble giving a coal mine away.
My guess is Kurri Kurri had better get built sooner, rather than later, how long companies are going to keep the lights on with loss making generation is anyone's guess.

‘Negative value’: BHP struggles to offload NSW’s biggest coal pit

Mining giant BHP would pay a bidder about $275 million to take the biggest coal mine in NSW off its hands even as prices of the fossil fuel soar to levels not seen since 2008.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Mining giant BHP would pay a bidder about $275 million to take the biggest coal mine in NSW off its hands even as prices of the fossil fuel soar to levels not seen since 2008.

BHP has been shopping its Mt Arthur coal mine near Muswellbrook for more than a year, and on Wednesday slashed its value from about $550 million to a liability of $275 million.
The reduction, coming seven months after it dropped $1.6 billion off the book value of the mine, is also an indication of the huge costs of rehabilitation the new owner will have to bear, analysts said. These include $40 million owed to Muswellbrook Shire Council for a road that BHP dug up, a council official said.
Thermal coal prices are running about $220 a tonne for Hunter Valley coal. Wood Mackenzie has a long-run price target of about $110 per tonne, while others have it closer to $82, Mr Simington said.

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BHP have priced in the incredibly likely prospect of a price on carbon, so any long-run price would need to capture that additional cost.
Moreover, as climate change effects intensify each year, companies not going green will have increasing difficulty attracting investors.

rederob said:

BHP have priced in the incredibly likely prospect of a price on carbon, so any long-run price would need to capture that additional cost.
Moreover, as climate change effects intensify each year, companies not going green will have increasing difficulty attracting investors.

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Very true Rob, also it just isn't viable to cycle steam plant and it will get worse and worse as more renewables come on line, the writing is on the wall, eventually it just wont be possible to justify operating steam plant.
The economics of the steam generation process and the physical damage incurred due to excessive cycling of the boiler and turbine, will just lead them to being taken out of service.

Steam ...
I like steam .
Steam baths .
Steam generation; already installed nuclear, geo-thermal, Moltan salt.
The fact that the whole morrison debarcle is seen as a metaphoric 'steaming heap'.
My old great uncle Harry who'd put some whiskey in his tea and call it steam.

But trawler? I think the term you are grasping for is not Steam, it's..... Thermal Coal...
Thermal coal, as seen by BHP( and anyone with a couple of nuerons to rubb together) as a both metaphoric and actual Steaming Heap.

The question to be asked is ..."if BHP wants to give a Quarter billion $$$ to get this stinker off it's books Why oh' why? arn't Matt Canavan, Joyce, Gina and the crew signing up the Nationals, so as to finance their next election push " .... 70million from Coal by nature Clive worked a treat last time round. Who as it happens is another 'steaming heap'

orr said:

But trawler? I think the term you are grasping for is not Steam, it's..... Thermal Coal...

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Doesn't matter how you produce the steam. Any method has the same technical issues unless we're talking about naturally occurring steam (geothermal).

Hence the demise of nuclear. Even now with the writing on the wall for coal, there's still far more new coal capacity being built globally than there is nuclear capacity being built.

For a local example, South Australia.

Excluding a few minor ones at industrial sites, in 1999 there were 14 steam driven generating units in service and, along with imports from steam plant in Victoria, these supplied more than 99.7% of all electricity in SA.

As of now there are 6 steam units in service in SA, 2 of which will be shut (one mothballed, one shut as such) within the next few weeks and another goes next year, and over the past 12 months they generated 10.8% of the state's electricity. Import from Victoria, some but not all of which would be from steam plant, supplied a further 9.0%

That's counting only conventional steam plant, that with steam produced in a boiler, and not including the steam component of combined cycle gas turbine plant.

Go back to 1989 and there were 25 steam units running in SA power stations plus a few little ones in industry. The trend's pretty clear here....

Much the same elsewhere. Compare now versus 20, 30 or 40 years ago and the number of steam units in operation is drastically lower with only the largest and most economical units still being run, all the rest has been scrapped.

SA past 12 months to date:

Wind = 43.0%
Solar = 19.4%

Combined Cycle Gas Turbines = 19.4% (fuel = natural gas)
Steam = 10.8% (fuel = natural gas)
Internal Combustion = 2.5% (fuel = natural gas, diesel)
Open Cycle Gas Turbines = 2.0% (fuel = natural gas, diesel)

Import from Victoria = 9.0%
Export to Victoria = 6.9%

Doesn't quite add to 100% due to individual rounding but it's near enough.

SA steam plant generation since 1999 (calendar years so 2021 is incomplete data). Brown = coal-fired, orange = gas or oil fired. SA is further down this track than most places but ultimately it's all going the same way eventually.

Note the chart shows steam plant only, other gas-fired plant excluded.

orr said:

But trawler? I think the term you are grasping for is not Steam, it's..... Thermal Coal...
Thermal coal, as seen by BHP( and anyone with a couple of nuerons to rubb together) as a both metaphoric and actual Steaming Heap.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the heads up Orr I wasn't grasping for anything, by the way steam turbines driven, by steam boilers can run a multitude of fuels.
In W.A they were operated on coal, LNG and fuel oil. The ones where I worked, could fire any combination simultaneously.

The Chinese to test a molten salt thorium reactor, hopefully the have success, then clean energy takes a massive step forward IMO.

Interesting article, it sounds as though the AEMO is starting to get on top of the grid issues, as the transition to renewables increases.
It sounds as though they are considering a model like W.A uses, where generators are paid an availability allowance, to ensure there is enough stand by plant, if it is required to be brought on line.
From the article:
New battery storage and gas-powered generators have helped bring more reliability to the electricity grid on Australia's east coast, with no issues for electricity supply forecast over the next five years.

Key points:​

• The manager of the country's electricity markets has dropped its warning that Australia faces a power supply shortage
• AEMO says the closure of coal plants in coming years will be shored up by new battery and gas plants
• Possible flooding at Yallourn station in Victoria remains the biggest short-term risk to supply

Previously, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) had identified a shortfall in electricity generation and possible blackouts in New South Wales following the closure of coal-fired power stations over the next five years.

But the company, which oversees Australia's power markets, found in its latest report on electricity supply "the previously identified reliability gap in NSW is no longer forecast."

The AEMO report shows adequate electricity supply for the coming summer and following years, though it does warn extreme weather events could disrupt the operations of ageing coal-fired power stations.

"An additional 2,245 megawatts (MW) of new capacity is forecast to be operational this summer, compared to what was available last summer. This includes 470 MW of dispatchable battery storage capacity, " the report found.
The CEO of AEMO, Daniel Westerman, attributed the more positive outlook for the electricity grid to a range of factors.

Mr Westerman said new wind and solar farms, combined with plans for 'dispatchable' power (which incudes pumped hydro, gas plants, and battery storage), "will all help replace retiring coal and gas plant"
"No reliability gaps are forecast for the next five years, primarily due to more than 4.4 gigawatts (GW) of new generation and storage capacity, as well as transmission investment and reduced peak demand forecasts," he said.

Beyond the next five years, the outlook was a little more cautious, noting some coal-fired power stations in Victoria and New South Wales will close earlier than previously expected
The biggest risk to the electricity grid over the next 10 years isn't the lack of supply, but rather, the lack of demand.

With households and businesses continuing to install roof-top solar power, demand for electricity is falling, particularly through the day.

That reduces the minimum amount of electricity needed in the network, causing issues for coal and gas-fired power stations that have minimum operating restrictions.

In five years' time, roof-top solar could supply up to 77 per cent of electricity demands at some points in the day, which would cause the minimum operating demand for the National Electricity Market (NEM) to drop by two-thirds.

"Without additional operational tools, we may no longer be able to operate the mainland NEM securely in all periods from 2025 due to a lack of security services when demand from the grid is so low," Mr Westerman said.
Federal, state and territory ministers are currently considering a range of options to ensure the stability of the electricity grid in the long-term, such as a Retailer Reliability Obligation.

Their decisions wil be critical, given AEMO expects that by 2025, there will be times renewables could supply 100 per cent of electricity demand

sptrawler said:

Interesting article, it sounds as though the AEMO is starting to get on top of the grid issues, as the transition to renewables increases.
It sounds as though they are considering a model like W.A uses, where generators are paid an availability allowance, to ensure there is enough stand by plant, if it is required to be brought on line.

Closure of coal plants won't lead to blackouts, says market operator, as batteries and gas shore up supply

The company that manages Australia's electricity markets is no longer warning the closure of coal-fired power stations could lead to blackouts, as battery storage and gas power have shored-up supply.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:
New battery storage and gas-powered generators have helped bring more reliability to the electricity grid on Australia's east coast, with no issues for electricity supply forecast over the next five years.

Key points:​

• The manager of the country's electricity markets has dropped its warning that Australia faces a power supply shortage
• AEMO says the closure of coal plants in coming years will be shored up by new battery and gas plants
• Possible flooding at Yallourn station in Victoria remains the biggest short-term risk to supply

Previously, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) had identified a shortfall in electricity generation and possible blackouts in New South Wales following the closure of coal-fired power stations over the next five years.

But the company, which oversees Australia's power markets, found in its latest report on electricity supply "the previously identified reliability gap in NSW is no longer forecast."

The AEMO report shows adequate electricity supply for the coming summer and following years, though it does warn extreme weather events could disrupt the operations of ageing coal-fired power stations.

"An additional 2,245 megawatts (MW) of new capacity is forecast to be operational this summer, compared to what was available last summer. This includes 470 MW of dispatchable battery storage capacity, " the report found.
The CEO of AEMO, Daniel Westerman, attributed the more positive outlook for the electricity grid to a range of factors.

Mr Westerman said new wind and solar farms, combined with plans for 'dispatchable' power (which incudes pumped hydro, gas plants, and battery storage), "will all help replace retiring coal and gas plant"
"No reliability gaps are forecast for the next five years, primarily due to more than 4.4 gigawatts (GW) of new generation and storage capacity, as well as transmission investment and reduced peak demand forecasts," he said.

Beyond the next five years, the outlook was a little more cautious, noting some coal-fired power stations in Victoria and New South Wales will close earlier than previously expected
The biggest risk to the electricity grid over the next 10 years isn't the lack of supply, but rather, the lack of demand.

With households and businesses continuing to install roof-top solar power, demand for electricity is falling, particularly through the day.

That reduces the minimum amount of electricity needed in the network, causing issues for coal and gas-fired power stations that have minimum operating restrictions.

In five years' time, roof-top solar could supply up to 77 per cent of electricity demands at some points in the day, which would cause the minimum operating demand for the National Electricity Market (NEM) to drop by two-thirds.

"Without additional operational tools, we may no longer be able to operate the mainland NEM securely in all periods from 2025 due to a lack of security services when demand from the grid is so low," Mr Westerman said.
Federal, state and territory ministers are currently considering a range of options to ensure the stability of the electricity grid in the long-term, such as a Retailer Reliability Obligation.

Their decisions wil be critical, given AEMO expects that by 2025, there will be times renewables could supply 100 per cent of electricity demand

Click to expand...

Well Surprise, Surprise, Surprise !!

The last great Angus Taylor lie of trying to undermine the capacity of renewable energy plus storage to keep the lights on is biting the dust. I also note the warning that extreme weather events could risk undermining the capacity of coal fired power plants to keep the system operational.

There is another story on the same topic of storing and balancing excess solar power.

Renew Enery took a more robust approach to the AEMO report. Also provided more detail on the rapid advance of renewable energy and battery storage. Frankly I waiting to see the Angus Taylor defamation case.

I think the important unknown element will be how quickly EV vehicles take off in Australia and how servicing them( and perhaps using them as battery banks ) is considered.

Like I've always said all along, there is no reason for everyone to get their knickers in a knot, it will be self resolving, steam driven plant isn't suitable for on/off, on/off operation or the correct term cycling.
As the renewables come on line and the storage capacity increases, it will force the coal and gas fired steam plant oos, simple economics and physics.
Also as it is cheaper to install renewables, maintain renewables and operate renewables, the money side of the equation falls heavily in favour of renewables. Therefore new plant will be most likely renewables, eventually it will be all renewables + storage, with some backup at call generation for essential services in the event of a failure.
It is actually happening in an extremely organised manner, when you consider the AEMO is expecting the grid to be operating on 100% renewables for some periods in the day, by 2025. That's only 4 years away.
As for the coal lobby group, as I said it will be self resolving, so why have a fight when a fight isn't needed, I think not treading on the coal lobbies toes is a good play.
Also why the Govt has committed to HEGT's not new coal, I will be shocked if the Govt agree to fund a coal station, they may dance around the issue but I'll believe it when I see it.
I don't think it will happen, how they handle the coal regions will be very interesting, they do carry a few seats and some political clout with the Nationals.
Unfortunately the writing is on the wall, the difficulty as with everything, is getting those it affects to accept it. The longer they believe that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, the more time it has to sink in that it is an illusion.
The workers themselves will be talking about it, I know we were when I was at work and that was 10 years ago, now when I catch up with the guys still working, they are now talking about when not if.
Up to now the Governments, both federal and State have done an excellent job of transitioning to renewables, without having any major industrial disputes and outages IMO.
The last thing that needs to happen is a Govt going in with Jackboots and having rolling blackouts, because of shoving it up the coal generators that are actually keeping the lights on, wouldn't be a very smart move by a Government but would make the loony left happy.

Here is a story that explains exactly what will happen, in countries like Australia, which are fortunate enough to have alternatives to coal.
It also explains how the sensitive issue, of the coal power station workers, was facilitated.
From the article:
Coal engineer José Manuel Pérez Rodriguez can only laugh when he recalls what his university taught him about renewables.

"My teacher said, well, we are going to teach you that but it's going to be of minor use," he says. "It's not profitable, it's very expensive. Just centre on coal."

Twenty years on, he works in Spain's last full-time coal-fired power plant in the coal mining province of Asturias. His job is to plan its conversion into a green hydrogen plant.

As head of hydrogen conversion for the power company EDP, Mr Pérez Rodriguez still marvels at how quickly coal is vanishing from the energy landscape.

"Everything is changing dramatically every year," he says. "We expect that the next year is going to be greener, but it's always greener than we expect. This is exponential."
Three years ago, Spain's Socialist Workers' Party government signed an agreement with trade unions and energy companies to shut down the entire coal industry in return for early retirement and investment in replacement industries.
Successive governments have learned the hard way to fear the wrath of coal communities.

At a former mine, Pozo Soton, a choir of retired miners meets to sing the union anthem, Santa Barbara. This was a rallying call for decades of industrial action to fight the closure of state-run mines.

In 2012, Asturian miners fought pitched battles with police, even firing rockets at police lines, after the government cut subsidies. Ten thousand miners and supporters marched on Madrid to try to force a backdown.

Unions only agreed to Just Transition after the government guaranteed both early retirement and massive investment to create alternative jobs.
Successive governments have learned the hard way to fear the wrath of coal communities.

At a former mine, Pozo Soton, a choir of retired miners meets to sing the union anthem, Santa Barbara. This was a rallying call for decades of industrial action to fight the closure of state-run mines.

In 2012, Asturian miners fought pitched battles with police, even firing rockets at police lines, after the government cut subsidies. Ten thousand miners and supporters marched on Madrid to try to force a backdown.

Unions only agreed to Just Transition after the government guaranteed both early retirement and massive investment to create alternative jobs.

I did say it will be self resolving, the States oversee the power stations and ultimately have the say in what they will do. The pandemic has highlighted that, so the feds can huff and puff, but it is ultimately up to the states which direction they take, as was shown by S.A many years ago.
Now the fun will really start, IMO the coal generators will just close down as being financially non viable, thankfully i live in W.A.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/victori...to-coalkeeper-wants-focus-on-battery-storage/
From the article:
The proposals for the “physical retail reliability option” have been described as “technology neutral” by Taylor and the ESB, but the market is convinced that they would effectively pay coal and gas generators paid to remain open, and Victorian energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio said she would have none of that.

“Victoria wants to reassure investors in wind and solar farms and storage such as giant batteries that it will not adopt any mechanism within the NEM that undermines the state’s ambition to cut carbon emissions,” D’Ambrosio said in a statement.

D’Ambrosio said some form of a capacity mechanism is a possible solution to the lack of investment certainty – but it must be designed properly.

“I couldn’t be clearer about two principles Victoria has for any new capacity mechanism. The first is that there be no payments to incumbent fossil fuels generators. The second is there must be payments to new zero emissions technology,” she said.

D’Ambrosio’s comments follow similar remarks by NSW energy Matt Kean earlier this month when he said he would favour direct negotiations with coal generator owners, as Victoria has done with Yallourn owner EnergyAustralia, bringing forward its closure to 2028, but ensuring it stays open until then.

As RenewEconomy predicted several week ago, the opposition of Victoria and NSW effectively kills the scheme, because no other states are strong supporters. They all want mechanisms that favour fast and flexible dispatchable capacity, and that could be battery storage, demand response, and pumped hydro installations.

And looking at Utopia, I mean Europe. I can't wait for NSW and Victoria, to deal with their problems. ?
From the article:
FRANKFURT/LONDON/PARIS Sept 10 (Reuters) - A record run in energy prices that pushed European electricity costs to multi-year highs is unlikely to ease off before year-end, pointing to an expensive winter heating season for consumers.

The key benchmark EU and French power contracts have both doubled so far this year due to a confluence of factors ranging from Asia's economic recovery - which sent related coal and gas prices soaring - to political will to drive up European carbon emission permits, higher oil prices and low local renewable output.
The benchmark EU power contract, German Cal 2022 baseload power , on Friday set a new contract record of 97.25 euros ($115.09) a megawatt hour (MWh), while its French equivalent was just off a record 100.4 euros/MWh.


German front-year wholesale electricity price
The biggest unknown is the Nord Stream 2 (NS 2) gas link from Russia to Germany, which could be operational in 2021 and boost tight European gas inventories.


At around 70% full, gas stocks are lower than usual after a weak import year in which Asian buyers snapped up liquefied natural gas (LNG) and Europe's industry recovered more quickly than expected from reduced demand due to the COVID-19 crisis.

This time last year, stock levels were at 93%, data from industry group GIE showed.

Construction of the 55 billion cubic metre per year NS 2 pipeline is complete, ready to double Russia's gas exporting capacity via the Baltic Sea, but Germany's regulator has yet to give the green light, which could take months.
Gas demand from power stations has been high due to lower than average wind speeds in Europe, curbing power generation from wind farms.

Analysts ICIS Energy said wind generation in Germany over the next two weeks is expected to average only 5 gigawatts (GW) a day compared to an average of over 10 GW for the three previous Septembers.

That is merely a tenth of the possible total.

"If there are periods again where wind generation drops, which is always the nature of wind, there will be high prices again," ICIS Energy analyst Roy Manuell said.
The European EU carbon benchmark contract , currently at 62.4 euros a tonne, remains not far off an all-time high set this week, buoyed by more ambitious climate targets that raise the cost of pollution, but also because high power generation activity means buyers need more permits.

In complex interactions between fuels and carbon, coal demand has risen as power generators seek to avoid sky-high gas prices.

With coal plants emitting double the amount of carbon dioxide as gas plants, this has in turn led to more demand and higher prices of carbon permits.


European steam coal prices for power generation are at 12-year highs, and at 13-year peaks in Asia.

At least one factor, nuclear availability in major power exporter France, should bring peace of mind as engineers have worked hard to improve the fleet - though Europe-wide, the picture for nuclear is mixed, as power stations in big markets like Britain and Germany close.

Current French daily nuclear availability is seen at between 45 GW and 47 GW for September, which is about 73-75% of the installed total and between 6 and 7 GW above the five-year average, according to ICIS and data from grid company RTE.

November and December availability should be near 90%.

Here is an article on Australian solar panel production and how it was lost to China, which I bring up when people say it is only one side of politics that screws up. The biggest solar panel manufacturing plant in the Southern hemisphere, was in Sydney and was shut down in 2009 on a vocal supporter of climate change's watch.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science...australia-stopped-making-them-china/100466342

By the way another issue I have mentioned, is highlighted in the article a computer picture rendition of the proposed solar farm in the N.T, now that's what I call greening. ?
Also let's not forget there is a similar size one getting built in the Pilbara and neither are for our own consumption, so many, many more will have to be built to replace the fossil fuel generators we use for domestic consumption.

That is what a small section of a 300sq/klm solar farm looks like. I bet the greenies will gulp when they see that.
The kangaroos and lizards will be lining up at the gate to the zoo, for food.
Nuclear is bad, covering huge swathes of Australia with panels like this, is good.
Let's not forget they lose up to 60% of their efficiency if covered in dust and also will require replacing in 20 or so years, we'll need a bigger landfill, if recycling doesn't step up.
Oh and best of luck to all the posters, that keep telling me, we are going to grow crops under there.
Also not forgetting, you have to find a space where a sacred serpent or ceremonial site, isn't located.
Oh the fun, all to support human consumption.