The future of energy generation and storage

Smurf1976 · 24 January 2019

As an update on the present situation:

Current estimates from AEMO are that Vic and SA will just scrape through with nothing to spare.

So the lights stay on so long as there's not even a slight error in the forecast and nothing goes wrong. So it's a very borderline situation really.

The temperature in the Adelaide CBD has exceeded 46 degrees and it's about 47 in some suburbs. It's warm outside yes.

basilio · 24 January 2019

I agree with Smurf on the practical engineering process of moving from coal to renewables for our electricity supplies. In fact this process should have been on the table many, many years ago and if it was, the measured practice Smurf is advocating would have been the best way forward.

In 2019 however we have an additional issue offering far more urgency. The ongoing effects of GG on global warming are now absolutely clear. While once upon a time we could have had an orderly retirement and replacement of coal fired power, we now need to move far more quickly if we are to have any chance of winding back CO2 emissions. And inevitably there will be stranded assets.

Mind you if one wanted to think about the waste of resources in stranded assets perhaps cast an eye on the trillions of dollars of weaponry that is continually created, deployed and then retired as it makes way for the next trillion dollar deal. Just to put this in perspective..

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

rederob said:
Northern was closed by Alinta on commercial grounds - that's the reality.
It's all good and well to talk about an "orderly plan", but there's no underpinning energy policy to work off.
As I said earlier, we are talking about massive investment decisions when it comes to dispatchable energy. With a NEM we need all parties to get together after they have some certainty from the federal government on a wide range of issues affecting the market. What needs to be done has been outlined for some time. Attempts to get agreement at COAG Energy Council meetings continue to be futile: the present federal Minister is a troglodyte and his predecessor bowed to fossil fuel interests.

Well that underlines what I said.

Smurf1976 · 24 January 2019

rederob said:
Northern was closed by Alinta on commercial grounds - that's the reality.

I’m not suggesting Alinta did anything wrong in a corporate or legal sense.

My argument is more that we shouldn’t have multiple competing entities making such important decisions on that basis in the first place with no overall plan.

Smurf1976 · 24 January 2019

basilio said:
The ongoing effects of GG on global warming are now absolutely clear.

New all time record temperature in Adelaide today and the breaking of records in general is starting to become rather common.

What’s the chance that Adelaide’s new record high remains the record for a long time? On current trends I’d say not very - I’ll probably live to see it broken again more than once.

That said, I still see a need to ensure the lights stay on, actually it’s even more important if the weather’s getting more extreme, but that’s not to dismiss the issue of emissions in any way.

Noted about arms etc yes.

rederob · 24 January 2019

sptrawler said:
I take my hat off to your patience, as you will obviously have many years, of explaining the limitations and technical difficulties with a large interconnected grid.
Unfortunately it is given to an audience that listens and nods, then continue on with their ill informed opinion, that is backed by very limited knowledge.

An interesting comment.
I have followed this issue for some years - I am pretty sure I can spot ill-informed when I see it.
The limitations of the current system relate to capacity and dispatchable energy.
Additionally, money needs to be spent on better integrating renewables into the existing grid.
The technology to make a complex system work has been in place for a very long time.
The last COAG EC meeting was late December 2018 and they received advice from AEMO that they would struggle to get through the coming months without load shedding - read blackouts - somewhere. What happened? Well, the federal Minister reckoned he achieved everything he wanted, but the meeting was yet another failure to act decisively on the most pressing issues.

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

basilio said:
In 2019 however we have an additional issue offering far more urgency. The ongoing effects of GG on global warming are now absolutely clear. While once upon a time we could have had an orderly retirement and replacement of coal fired power, we now need to move far more quickly if we are to have any chance of winding back CO2 emissions. And inevitably there will be stranded assets.

It isn't a lack of will or wanting to, it is the lack of available technology and the time it will take, to carry out the replacement.
Firstly, the only high output renewable power generating technology available ATM, is molten salt storage.
There are about three in the World and S.A is going to build the biggest 150MW, from memory we need about 50GW to replace fossil fuel, that is about 300 of those generators.
And we then need to have about 100GW of storage.
So to put that into perspective, the generators are $650m each and would take years to build and commission.
Then with the storage, all the pumped hydro storage facilities have to be built and a huge amount of batteries will be required.
We are talking a lot of money and a lot of time, it will happen, but blowing up usable power stations because ideology is dumb as $hit.
Northern Power Station was probably not commercial, as it would have had to be cycled to allow room for the renewables, coal isn't suitable for that.
However as a perfectly good reliable generator, it doesn't have to be commercially viable, if it is Government owned.
It can be just a unit available to allow other units on the system to be taken off for maintenance or to cover unscheduled outages.
It becomes a public service, you know those things we pay for, so we can have a more comfortable life.
What did the S.A Premier say, when it was offered to them for peanuts, "coal doesn't fit in our renewable plan".
Well I guess that is a luxury, when you can bludge off other States for your power, maybe they will think about it when they are sitting in the dark. lol

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

rederob said:
An interesting comment.
I have followed this issue for some years - I am pretty sure I can spot ill-informed when I see it.
The limitations of the current system relate to capacity and dispatchable energy.
Additionally, money needs to be spent on better integrating renewables into the existing grid.
The technology to make a complex system work has been in place for a very long time.
The last COAG EC meeting was late December 2018 and they received advice from AEMO that they would struggle to get through the coming months without load shedding - read blackouts - somewhere. What happened? Well, the federal Minister reckoned he achieved everything he wanted, but the meeting was yet another failure to act decisively on the most pressing issues.

Again very eloquently written, but saying very little, however I do love your passion.

qldfrog · 24 January 2019

Exactly how long did it take?
(Refering to sptrawler comment after smurf perfect technical answer)

rederob · 24 January 2019

Smurf1976 said:
I’m not suggesting Alinta did anything wrong in a corporate or legal sense.
My argument is more that we shouldn’t have multiple competing entities making such important decisions on that basis in the first place with no overall plan.

Alinta made a commercial decision.
Who is your "we" (which I highlighted above)?
We (the likes of you and me and those many hearing what the politicians spout) are being told that competition is good and that it serves to drive down prices. So which is it?
Meaning no disrespect, you have got it a bit back to front. Because there is no overall plan for any State to sign up to, market operators will act in their best interests, and making a loss isn't usually a part of it. However, providing the opportunity for multiple competing entities to competitively tender to fill voids in the market, on the basis they understand the rules of the market they will be entering, should benefit all participants.

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

qldfrog said:
Exactly how long did it take?
(Refering to sptrawler comment after smurf perfect technical answer)

2 minutes, a new all time record, there is no knocking the typing skills.

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

rederob said:
Alinta made a commercial decision.
Who is your "we" (which I highlighted above)?
We (the likes of you and me and those many hearing what the politicians spout) are being told that competition is good and that it serves to drive down prices. So which is it?
Meaning no disrespect, you have got it a bit back to front. Because there is no overall plan for any State to sign up to, market operators will act in their best interests, and making a loss isn't usually a part of it. However, providing the opportunity for multiple competing entities to competitively tender to fill voids in the market, on the basis they understand the rules of the market they will be entering, should benefit all participants.

You will get your plan, in about 6 months time, it should be fun.

rederob · 24 January 2019

sptrawler said:
It isn't a lack of will or wanting to, it is the lack of available technology and the time it will take, to carry out the replacement.
Firstly, the only high output renewable power generating technology available ATM, is molten salt storage.
There are about three in the World and S.A is going to build the biggest 150MW, from memory we need about 50GW to replace fossil fuel, that is about 300 of those generators.
And we then need to have about 100GW of storage.
So to put that into perspective, the generators are $650m each and would take years to build and commission.
Then with the storage, all the pumped hydro storage facilities have to be built and a huge amount of batteries will be required.
We are talking a lot of money and a lot of time, it will happen, but blowing up usable power stations because ideology is dumb as $hit.
Northern Power Station was probably not commercial, as it would have had to be cycled to allow room for the renewables, coal isn't suitable for that.
However as a perfectly good reliable generator, it doesn't have to be commercially viable, if it is Government owned.
It can be just a unit available to allow other units on the system to be taken off for maintenance or to cover unscheduled outages.
It becomes a public service, you know those things we pay for, so we can have a more comfortable life.
What did the S.A Premier say, when it was offered to them for peanuts, "coal doesn't fit in our renewable plan".
Well I guess that is a luxury, when you can bludge off other States for your power, maybe they will think about it when they are sitting in the dark. lol

Thank you for an enjoyable read.

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

rederob said:
Thank you for an enjoyable read.

It is an interesting subject, bound to generate robust debate.
The end outcome is a given, the journey getting there, is the intriguing part.

rederob · 24 January 2019

sptrawler said:
It is an interesting subject, bound to generate robust debate.
The end outcome is a given, the journey getting there, is the intriguing part.

Please explain.
If it were a given, then the basis for the outcome would already be apparent.

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

rederob said:
Please explain.
If it were a given, then the basis for the outcome would already be apparent.

Living on a planet, with finite resources and a growing population, we either make our energy renewable and sustainable or perish. Just my opinion.
But we will probably perish anyway, probably from starvation.

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

It sounds as though tomorrow, may be more of an issue, regarding power.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...wer-as-victoria-swelters-20190124-p50tat.html

From the article:
Victoria is now facing a power shortfall larger than Australia's biggest coal-fired power station on Friday as it swelters through an ongoing heatwave and power stations break down.

It said there was a minimum energy reserve requirement of 3179 megawatts needed, however, the state only had reserves of 41 megawatts secured.

This shortfall of 3130 megawatts is larger than Origin's Eraring coal-fired power station, which is the largest in Australia.

Yep, keep blowing up those coal fired stations boys.

Here you go, not exactly the answer, but will help until renewables take over.

https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/FUJI-MI...h=item257f7da44e:g:gegAAOSw8~NcPmy9:rk:9:pf:0

Going by the number sold, people obviously aren't over confident.

rederob · 24 January 2019

sptrawler said:
It sounds as though tomorrow, may be more of an issue, regarding power.

Yes, and if you bothered to quote the real reason you would have discovered this:

"The current tight conditions have been caused by a combination of the ongoing heatwave and two major coal-fired power stations experiencing generator breakdowns.
EnergyAustralia's Yallourn coal-fired power station in the Latrobe Valley has taken one of its generators offline for maintenance. Its Tallawarra gas-fired power station, in Wollongong, NSW, is also offline after breaking down last week, further reducing backup power capability.
AGL said a 560 megawatt generator at its Latrobe Valley-based Loy Yang A power station was taken offline on Tuesday due to a tube leak, which could take three to four days to repair."

While renewables sites are not of themselves big generators of supply, many could break down and have a relatively insignificant impact on capacity. This is not the case with fossil-sourced energy supply.

Smurf1976 · 24 January 2019

rederob said:
Who is your "we" (which I highlighted above)?

Australia including its states, people and businesses.

We (the likes of you and me and those many hearing what the politicians spout) are being told that competition is good and that it serves to drive down prices. So which is it?

It's a quarter of a century since we started down this path. Took the state utilities, split them up into parts, then further split those parts into lots of little bits and sold them meanwhile encouraging others to also enter the market.

I grasp the concept that competition should lower prices but I'm a realist. Thus far the "benefits" of all this have been a 20 - 110% increase in real (inflation adjusted) prices for small consumers such as households, a major reduction in the technical integrity of the system, a drop in labour productivity and a stalling on technological progress.

As with anything, if it's not working then a smart person accepts that they've got it wrong and doesn't keep doing the same thing.

As with anything, if the game's killing you then it's not unreasonable to change the rules.

Meaning no disrespect, you have got it a bit back to front. Because there is no overall plan for any State to sign up to

Choosing to not have a plan is itself a plan of sorts given that it's a conscious choice to have moved to that situation (since we did have plans in the past).

As I've said though, I take no issue whatsoever with Alinta acting in their own interests within the law. The issue I see is with a regulatory system which left them to make that decision in the first place given we're talking about critical infrastructure upon which the community relies.

To that end I'd come back to the "competition" bit and the problems there. If there was proper communications between the various companies then a lot of the silly things would stop happening. Trouble is, the ACCC calls that "collusion" and hands out huge fines. See point above that competition hasn't really worked anyway hence it's all a bit silly pretending otherwise.

sptrawler · 24 January 2019

rederob said:
Yes, and if you bothered to quote the real reason you would have discovered this:

"The current tight conditions have been caused by a combination of the ongoing heatwave and two major coal-fired power stations experiencing generator breakdowns.
EnergyAustralia's Yallourn coal-fired power station in the Latrobe Valley has taken one of its generators offline for maintenance. Its Tallawarra gas-fired power station, in Wollongong, NSW, is also offline after breaking down last week, further reducing backup power capability.
AGL said a 560 megawatt generator at its Latrobe Valley-based Loy Yang A power station was taken offline on Tuesday due to a tube leak, which could take three to four days to repair."
While renewables sites are not of themselves big generators of supply, many could break down and have a relatively insignificant impact on capacity. This is not the case with fossil-sourced energy supply.

Yes we know, but we haven't got the renewables to replace them and we are blowing them up.
This is just the type of situation, where Northern would have been put into operation.

Something obviously isn't connecting here.

The future of energy generation and storage

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