The future of energy generation and storage

Too much solar in Qld ?

Encouraging people to install batteries would seem the best idea.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-...r-rooftop-installations-flooding-grid/9845924

Situation is a bit precarious in NSW at the moment with rather a lot of generation faults as follows:

Bayswater power station (2640 MW total capacity) - 3 of 4 units are not running so only 660MW available.

Liddell (1680 MW total capacity) - 1 of 4 is not running.

Mt Piper - (1400 MW) 1 of 2 is not running.

Vales Point (1320 MW) - 1 of 2 is not running.

Colongra (700 MW) 1 of 4 not running.

Tallawarra (435 MW) Not running.

Supply was adequate, but only just, due to the wind blowing fairly well plus supply at a high level from Qld and Vic, the latter being partly sourced from SA and Tas.

Had it been even modestly colder in Sydney then it would have been a very different story with load shedding unavoidable. Likewise it would have only taken one more fault, or the wind to stop blowing, to have produced the same outcome.

On other maters, so far as pumped hydro is concerned it's all quite simple really.

There may or may not be better options to build something in Victoria instead of building it in Tasmania for the purpose of supply to Vic.

It is reality however that Hydro Tas has a firm proposal and the ability to deliver it. In contrast thus far there's nothing even remotely comparable actually proposed from anyone in Vic and thus no chance of it being built. Given the increasing urgency of the situation Hydro's "Battery Of The Nation" project wins simply because it's being put forward.

SirRumpole said:

Encouraging people to install batteries would seem the best idea.

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In theory that works but one limitation of presently available "consumer" batteries is their limited functionality.

In broad terms, for those who remember it's all very reminiscent of what computers were like back in the 1980's. A lot of potential and things which "obviously" could be done but which were out of reach of anyone lacking substantial "geek" skills due to the limitations of commercially available software.

Still on the 1980's theme, they're actually one step behind VCR's from the early 80's since whilst it was well known that many struggled to do so it was at least possible to program the VCR to record different channels at different times over the next week or two. Some minor complexity counting the days but most certainly possible.

Batteries are much the same as early computers and a step behind 1980's VCR's at the present time. If you want it to work in a way that's dead simple then yes it does that. Introduce even the slightest bit of complexity and now you're into the world of attaching some third party device and programming it yourself, something that 99% of users lack the skills, time and/or interest to do (and many of the remaining 1% will have concerns about voiding warranty etc).

So what's wrong with "dead simple" operation? In short the battery will grab all the spare solar power it can get. So you get a nice sunny day in Summer and the battery will be charging as soon as the sun comes up and fully charged by mid to late morning. There's the problem - now you've got the entire output of the solar power system, less any consumption in the house which naturally tends to be low at this time, going into the grid. The battery has done nothing at all to help.

Change that to have the battery charge only using generated power above x level and starting at y time then it all looks very different. Now it works and even better if you can automatically link that to a live weather forecasting system.

What's needed is for someone to come up with the equivalent of Windows / Mac OS for batteries. Something that average people can use to automatically control the system and make it do what they want it to do. FWIW there are some "serious" professional usages of computers which have gone down that track successfully, think critical infrastructure here, so it's perfectly good enough for controlling a battery at home and dead easy to use.

As it stands right now, the batteries themselves are good enough but getting them to work optimally is only going to happen if you're the sort of person who doesn't mind spending a lot of time for no $ return. 99% won't go there and that needs to change.

In Central West NSW we had a power outage for about 2 minutes at around 8pm.

Would that likely be load shedding or a fault ? It doesn't seem likely that they could fix a fault in such a short time.

There was no involuntary load shedding instructed by AEMO so far as I'm aware and no incident of load being dropped automatically due to insufficient generation. Came close but didn't reach the actual limit so any issue would be something local - distribution problem etc.

Looking at the next 7 days for NSW:

On every day consumption in NSW exceeds available supply within the state.

The lights should stay on however so long as Qld and Vic can keep pumping out the juice.

Qld should be no problem. Some generation outages but mostly going OK and load isn't that high at this time of year so fully loading the transmission lines Qld to NSW shouldn't be a problem.

Vic there's spare capacity most days but nothing of significance on Tue and Wed next week at this stage. The ability to transfer power from Vic to NSW on those two days will depend absolutely on supply coming into Vic from SA and Tas - shouldn't be a problem but when keeping the lights on in Sydney actually depends on things working in Adelaide and in Tasmania that's a sure sign that things are getting stretched.

So in short it's a bit shaky, it wouldn't take a lot more to go wrong to end up with problems, but the most likely outcome is no drama from the perspective of consumers.

Country Lad said:

A second interconnector has proposed for a long time, but would likely cost $1 billion, and there is no resolution on who would pay for it. It might be prudent for a decision first and then spend the money on feasibility studies for pumped hydro sites.

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$1 billion for a second interconnect, that will give 100% backup capacity is chicken feed, we can spend $50 + billion changing your phone line and everyone cheered. lol

I see the media's onto it about industry having to shut down in NSW:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...-as-power-supply-falters-20180608-p4zkbw.html

More drama on its way again this evening for NSW.

AEMO are currently seeking voluntary load reductions from industrial users.

Supply from Qld to NSW and Vic to NSW is in both cases maxed out to the limit of what the transmission lines can carry, and between them that's about a quarter of all load in NSW at the peak, so the other states can't do any more.

For the record supply Tas to Vic is also running to the limit of transmission. SA to Vic isn't at maximum but is at a fairly high level.

Tomago Aluminium, Australia's biggest smelter of the metal, warned on Friday that it may be forced to curtail operations for a third time this week because of power shortages across the national electricity market
As of Friday afternoon, NSW plants reporting outages or reduced output included the gas-fired Tullawarra power station, Mt Piper coal-fired power plant - both owned by EnergyAustralia.
Also reporting coal-fired power units offline were Sunset Power's Vales Point and AGL's two Hunter Valley stations, Bayswater and Liddell.
Tomago said it had been forced to halt each of three potlines this week - one on Tuesday and two on Thursday - because of a lack of reserve across the grid serving eastern states.
Matt Howell, Tomago's chief executive, told Fairfax Media on Friday lunchtime, the company was concerned it may face another curtailment of operations later in the day. Tomago accounts for about a tenth of the state's electricity use.
Australia is "at a crisis point with our energy system", Mr Howell said in a separate statement.

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When I was in the electricity supply game interruption of supply to the Boyne Island smelter was a concern during the couple of years of shortages. Even then, the cost of failure of potlines was in the order of $300 million.

Sounds like the Government, has put the wind up the Eastern States electricity companies, maybe Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg isn't as bad as everyone thought.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...berg-puts-them-on-notice-20180617-p4zm08.html

sptrawler said:

Sounds like the Government, has put the wind up the Eastern States electricity companies, maybe Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg isn't as bad as everyone thought.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...berg-puts-them-on-notice-20180617-p4zm08.html

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Putting them on notice would be to cap power prices at the average of our international competitors and tough luck if people say that's socialism.

SirRumpole said:

Putting them on notice would be to cap power prices at the average of our international competitors and tough luck if people say that's socialism.

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Even that's a pretty easy target given Australia used to be third cheapest in the OECD, beaten only by Canada and NZ with their much larger share of hydro generation when compared to Australia.

Even then, the unavoidably higher costs in SA, NT and WA were buried in the figures somewhat since Vic, Tas and Qld were all doing it seriously cheaply with NSW not too far behind.

There's a privately built clone of Loy Yang power station in the US. Not because someone in the US loved the Victorian government or the SEC but because by that point they'd even beaten the Germans when it came to turning low grade coal into electricity.

Trouble is, politicians just don't value this stuff because it's a world away from their own personal background in most cases. I doubt that many of them could do any sort of physical work using tools if their life depended on it.

Smurf1976 said:

Even that's a pretty easy target given Australia used to be third cheapest in the OECD, beaten only by Canada and NZ with their much larger share of hydro generation when compared to Australia.

Even then, the unavoidably higher costs in SA, NT and WA were buried in the figures somewhat since Vic, Tas and Qld were all doing it seriously cheaply with NSW not too far behind.

There's a privately built clone of Loy Yang power station in the US. Not because someone in the US loved the Victorian government or the SEC but because by that point they'd even beaten the Germans when it came to turning low grade coal into electricity.

Trouble is, politicians just don't value this stuff because it's a world away from their own personal background in most cases. I doubt that many of them could do any sort of physical work using tools if their life depended on it.

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From reading snippets in the media, I do think the Government has got some technical advice, and their recent announcements would indicate the electrical companies have been given notice.
Also AGL's response, to Alinta's purchase of Liddell Power Station, wouldn't have gone down well.
It was a case of the dog wagging the tail. lol

Are power bills beyond the ability of customers to decipher ?

Why not a standard power bill that everyone can understand ?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-...ity-bill-power-costs-best-power-deals/9905848

Does new coal stack up financially ?

This report says not.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-27/new-coal-doesnt-stack-up-just-look-at-queensland/9913882

Solar/hydro looks better for me.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-...ed-hydro-storage-$500m-loan-aus-first/9890466

I would just like someone to put their name down, as being responsible if the system falls on its ar$e, due to over exposure to renewables and overstating their robustness.

People expect reliable electricity supply, they pay electricity bills in the expectations of on going supply, they expect the Government to regulate it to ensure the companies are fulfilling their obligations.

Now we have a situation where public ideology, wants the industry to meet their warm feel good beliefs, while expecting it to be met regardless of outcome.

It really is time, the electricity supply, was put back in the hands of engineers.
At the moment, it is being driven by emotional, political and ideological factions, who don't have a clue and no responsibility for the outcome. IMO

sptrawler said:

I would just like someone to put their name down, as being responsible if the system falls on its ar$e, due to over exposure to renewables and overstating their robustness.

People expect reliable electricity supply, they pay electricity bills in the expectations of on going supply, they expect the Government to regulate it to ensure the companies are fulfilling their obligations.

Now we have a situation where public ideology, wants the industry to meet their warm feel good beliefs, while expecting it to be met regardless of outcome.

It really is time, the electricity supply, was put back in the hands of engineers.
At the moment, it is being driven by emotional, political and ideological factions, who don't have a clue and no responsibility for the outcome. IMO

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Yes, years of disastrous policy errors including privatisation, lack of government investment and direction and over hyping of renewables has led to a laughable situation if it wasn't actually killing the economy.

There are some green shoots, like the realisation of the necessity of storage for renewables a la Snowy Hydro 2.0, but even that is a recognition of the need for governments to invest and not just leave it to the private sector.

The real issue in the future is our reliance on imported oil, and to alleviate that we need to electrify the transport sector, which requires a quantum leap in investment in power generation & storage and hydrogen fuel cell technology. Whether this need has actually penetrated the thick heads of our politicians is anyone's guess.

Tasmania is 95% hydro and the rest is solar, wind, gas. 66 dollars per MW/h. No coal.

Victoria on the other hand is 70% brown coal - 108 dollars per MW/h

My view is it's better to sell/export the coal rather than burn it

PZ99 said:

Tasmania is 95% hydro and the rest is solar, wind, gas. 66 dollars per MW/h. No coal.

Victoria on the other hand is 70% brown coal - 108 dollars per MW/h

My view is it's better to sell/export the coal rather than burn it

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Yes, it does highlight your understanding of the issue.

You think Victoria should go hydro, solar or wind?

sptrawler said:

Yes, it does highlight your understanding of the issue.

You think Victoria should go hydro, solar or wind?

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In the long run I think they should go for a massive pumped hydro rollout. Solar is OK but better used in northern states. Coal is our second largest export income. Sell more coal to fund hydro.