The future of Australian property prices

sydboy007 · 23 June 2014

Wysiwyg said:
You reckon a 1000klm trip from Sydney to Brisbane in around 4 hours is gonna be cheap? Going on snail train costs today it definitely won't be less.

In Europe most airlines have stopped flying a lot of routes that are around 1000KM. HSR is able to be competitive over those distances door to door when you factor in most of the train stations are int eh centre of town while airports are a long trip out.

I was looking at a trip from Paris to Amsterdam on the HSR and it was easy to get a ticket for around $93, or $143 for a business class seat. Travel time was about 3H40M IIRC.

The issue is we don't really have the population to make it work here. Maybe we should contract it to the Chinese to build. Allow them to bring in their own workers and agree to a fixed price. the amount of HSR they've built in the last decade is staggering. I do think we're stuffed without it because once jet fuel starts getting back to $200 a barrel it will make flying quite expensive. Spending money on straightening the current track and improving signalling to allow the current trains to operate at their maximum speed on the route may be a more feasible alternative for now.

Mrmagoo · 23 June 2014

We do because the capital cities are large hubs. As I said, corruption won't allow it. They want property values to go up.
TBH you can treck around parts of europe for almost nothing if you're willing to ride share with locals.

If they did that here there would be "regulatory" issues.

Mrmagoo · 23 June 2014

Junior said:
I think so..Melb to Syd is one of the busiest air routes in the world. High speed rail can be integrated into existing metro rail networks. No security/customs, more comfortable, no driving or taxi to and from airports. The 2 or 3 major stops between melb/syd could grow into cities, with high density commercial development in a radius around the train station.

It would take pressure off inner city property prices and population growth in Melbourne and Sydney, and create job opportunities and growth in other parts of the country.

Build satellite sities full of apartments, greenery and facilities for the young to enjoy, the old can have their concrete camber well jungle with a big concrete yard.

Mrmagoo · 23 June 2014

Wysiwyg said:
You reckon a 1000klm trip from Sydney to Brisbane in around 4 hours is gonna be cheap? Going on snail train costs today it definitely won't be less.

Don't care I'd pay it to escape the bullcrap of having to fly.

Seriously, Europe. It was frigging amazing.

McLovin · 23 June 2014

sydboy007 said:
I do think we're stuffed without it because once jet fuel starts getting back to $200 a barrel it will make flying quite expensive.

Just some back of the envelope calculations here...

Burn rate for a 737-800 is ~2,400kg/hour or around 3,000 litres/hour in cruise. Once you take into account climb and descent you'll probably burn through around ~3,000kg of fuel on say SYD-MEL or SYD-BNE

3,000kg of fuel = 3,753 litres. Lets round up to 4,000 litres

The price of fuel is ~$1,600/thousand litres.

So to fill her up will cost $6,400.

They seat around 160pax, so at say 85% capacity that's 136 pax. The cost per passenger is $47 (and I'd say that would be on the high side because I've been pretty generous with the fuel allowance). Even assuming the price of oil doubles, I doubt HSR will be competitive with air travel.

That's certainly been the European outcome. Rail just can't compete on price.

Value Collector · 23 June 2014

Mrmagoo said:
Taxi to and from airport sets you back a minimum of $100. With a train you just jump on the in CBD and 3 hours latter you are where you want to go...

.

well catch the train to the airport

Junior · 23 June 2014

It may not be cost effective right now, but given the unrelenting population growth in this country you'd think it would be viable in the not too distant future.

Mrmagoo · 23 June 2014

Value Collector said:
well catch the train to the airport

Funny stuff.

In case you are serious.

Due to corruption in our nation trains either don't go to an airport or have huge charges attached.

sptrawler · 23 June 2014

McLovin said:
Just some back of the envelope calculations here...

Burn rate for a 737-800 is ~2,400kg/hour or around 3,000 litres/hour in cruise. Once you take into account climb and descent you'll probably burn through around ~3,000kg of fuel on say SYD-MEL or SYD-BNE

3,000kg of fuel = 3,753 litres. Lets round up to 4,000 litres

The price of fuel is ~$1,600/thousand litres.

So to fill her up will cost $6,400.

They seat around 160pax, so at say 85% capacity that's 136 pax. The cost per passenger is $47 (and I'd say that would be on the high side because I've been pretty generous with the fuel allowance). Even assuming the price of oil doubles, I doubt HSR will be competitive with air travel.

That's certainly been the European outcome. Rail just can't compete on price.

Especially if high speed rail, is using high cost electricity.
Which currently, is costing more and more, to produce.

Maybe when solar genaration and power storage becomes usefull, then HSR will be viable.

Value Collector · 28 June 2014

Mrmagoo said:
Funny stuff.

In case you are serious.

Due to corruption in our nation trains either don't go to an airport or have huge charges attached.

What city do you live in, brisbane airport train puts you right next to the taxi rank

Bill M · 28 June 2014

Value Collector said:
What city do you live in, brisbane airport train puts you right next to the taxi rank

Same in Sydney. I travel by train from the Central Coast (over 100 kilometers) to Sydney international terminal. I go up 3 flights of escalators and I am in the departure lounge and it only costs me $21.20.

Mrmagoo · 28 June 2014

Value Collector said:
What city do you live in, brisbane airport train puts you right next to the taxi rank

How nice for Brisbane, they also have affordable housing there. Hint : I live in one of the cities that doesn't have a train to the airport, obviously. I also have to fly a bit for work, so I know, because I catch the taxis and see how much they cost.....

Julia · 28 June 2014

Mr Magoo, when I read your posts I sometimes wonder if there is anything at all in your world that makes you happy? Even a little bit?

Mrmagoo · 29 June 2014

Julia said:
Mr Magoo, when I read your posts I sometimes wonder if there is anything at all in your world that makes you happy? Even a little bit?

Property prices certainly don't bring me happiness.

Glen48 · 29 June 2014

18% of property sale in OZ are the Chinese buying..some agents have published booklets in Chinese to attract over seas buyers.
A construction company in Sydney is building a high rise using Feng Shui principles so there is no number 4 the 4th and 14th floor don't exist.

A garden was to be on top of the building but after talks with the Feng expert it was decided to place it in the middle of the building due to some myth about a man with green hat having an affair.
So expect a lot Chinese take always to open up any day soon.

skyQuake · 29 June 2014

Glen48 said:
18% of property sale in OZ are the Chinese buying..some agents have published booklets in Chinese to attract over seas buyers.
A construction company in Sydney is building a high rise using Feng Shui principles so there is no number 4 the 4th and 14th floor don't exist.

A garden was to be on top of the building but after talks with the Feng expert it was decided to place it in the middle of the building due to some myth about a man with green hat having an affair.
So expect a lot Chinese take always to open up any day soon.

Source on the 18%? Even the RBA ain't too sure about stats due to the lack of reliable figures.

Glen48 · 29 June 2014

Agree no one knows the true figures , this quoted on ABC about the 18% but China has it's eyes on there.

sydboy007 · 14 July 2014

From the ABS today

According to the ABS, investor finance commitments in New South Wales in May were 30% higher than May 2013. New South Wales investor loans were also up by 41% in rolling annual terms in the year to May 2014, well above the national average increase of 28%.

Further, as at May 2014, investors accounted for an astonishing 54.1% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales – a new record. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) share of investor mortgages also rose to 45.7%, which was also a record share for that state.

Value Collector · 14 July 2014

Mrmagoo said:
How nice for Brisbane, they also have affordable housing there. Hint : I live in one of the cities that doesn't have a train to the airport, obviously. I also have to fly a bit for work, so I know, because I catch the taxis and see how much they cost.....

what about a bus or an airport shuttle service?

prawn_86 · 15 July 2014

Surprised no-one has commented on this:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-14/renting-or-buying-an-even-money-call-says-reserve-bank/5595814

Granted there are limitations to the study, but as I have said for the past 5 years, there is limited tangible upside to buying in the current environment (Generally speaking)

Personally, if I had bought a house straight out of uni, I probably wouldn't of been able to afford, or feel comfortable moving overseas with a mortgage over my head

The future of Australian property prices

sydboy007

Mrmagoo

Mrmagoo

Mrmagoo

McLovin

Value Collector

Have courage, and be kind.

Junior

Mrmagoo

sptrawler

Value Collector

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Bill M

Self Funded Retiree

Mrmagoo

Julia

In Memoriam

Mrmagoo

Glen48

Money can't buy Poverty

skyQuake

Glen48

Money can't buy Poverty

sydboy007

Value Collector

Have courage, and be kind.

prawn_86

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The future of Australian property prices

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