The future of Australian property prices

Mrmagoo · 9 February 2014

sptrawler said:
Yes things have changed a lot, especially regarding the relative cost of a house.
In the early 1990's the two big costs to consumers were a house and a car.
Generally a car was a years salary and a house was three years salary (talking bread and butter car v bread and butter house)

Well the Basic Commodore, back then was $25k and had nowhere near the equipment, of the new Commodores.
Yet the new Commodore can be bought for mid $30k.
http://www.mynrma.com.au/motoring/reviews/car-reviews/holden/commodore-vr.htm

Back then in Perth, the 'bread and butter' houses $100k, now they are $450-$500K.

So in real terms, it is only house price growth, that has far outstripped wage growth.
To feel the problem can't be solved, is very foolish.
One just has to ask the questions, what is supporting it and how long is that support needed.

90s commodores are fine. I have a 90s falcon. So does that mean I'm excused from 2010s house prices ?

cynic · 9 February 2014

Would anyone here be willing to pay 1990's real estate prices at 1990's interest rates whilst earning 1990's wages?

sptrawler · 9 February 2014

Mrmagoo said:
90s commodores are fine. I have a 90s falcon. So does that mean I'm excused from 2010s house prices ?

No, but it shows you buy with your head, why are 90% of taxis in Australia Falcons.
Because they are good for 1million k's and cheap to fix.
I think it is only a matter of time before house prices come back, or wages go forward.
The overtone of the Government doesn't seem to support the latter.

trainspotter · 9 February 2014

You did not answer one thing Mrmagoo ... class dismissed. Young people think they know it all and don't listen to us old fogies who have experienced it first hand. Go and do some research and get back to me when your eyes are fully open

sptrawler · 9 February 2014

cynic said:
Would anyone here be willing to pay 1990's real estate prices at 1990's interest rates whilst earning 1990's wages?

Obviously the 'baby boomers' did and are reaping the capital gain today.
However past performance, is not a gaurantee of future returns (isn't that what they say?)

For my personal opinion, I think we are close to one of those 'once in a lifetime events'.
That seem to happen every 5 - 10years.lol

cynic · 9 February 2014

sptrawler said:
Obviously the 'baby boomers' did and are reaping the capital gain today.
However past performance, is not a gaurantee of future returns (isn't that what they say?)

I'm not sure that you've understood what I am driving at!

Remember that mean wages were much lower and interest rates were triple what they are today!!

trainspotter · 9 February 2014

cynic said:
I'm not sure that you've understood what I am driving at!

Remember that mean wages were much lower and interest rates were triple what they are today!!

Head of the class. Try 17 percent ... yeahhh things were soooo much better when I bought my first house.

banco · 9 February 2014

trainspotter said:
Head of the class. Try 17 percent ... yeahhh things were soooo much better when I bought my first house.

Hit 17 percent and then started a decline that hasn't stopped. Given how much cheaper the asset was back then you baby boomers still come out way ahead.

Bill M · 9 February 2014

cynic said:
Would anyone here be willing to pay 1990's real estate prices at 1990's interest rates whilst earning 1990's wages?

My wife and I did, never expected interest rates to go that high. Had to work 2 jobs to make ends meet, wife worked too, it was all pumped into the mortgage. But I am sure most of the younger folk think we had it easier.

trainspotter · 9 February 2014

banco said:
Hit 17 percent and then started a decline that hasn't stopped. Given how much cheaper the asset was back then you baby boomers still come out way ahead.

lol ... and so were wages. Bottom line is that nothing has changed ... do the research !

banco · 9 February 2014

trainspotter said:
lol ... and so were wages. Bottom line is that nothing has changed ... do the research !

Remind me what multiple of wages the median house in Sydney was in the eighties versus today?

trainspotter · 9 February 2014

banco said:
Remind me what multiple of wages the median house in Sydney was in the eighties versus today?

Remind me what interest rates and inflation was performing at back then ? Stop living in the past. Tell me what the FTSE, ASX and NASDAQ were peaking ?

trainspotter · 9 February 2014

banco said:
Remind me what multiple of wages the median house in Sydney was in the eighties versus today?

HERE IS A TIP .... buy what you can afford and it does not have to be in Sydney !!!!!

Bill M · 9 February 2014

Meanwhile in Sydney in a very ordinary suburb this bloke and his wife just paid over $1 Million for this house. Now look at the crowd in the photo, no Chinese there, just plenty of true blues wanting their piece of paradise. Location is Northern Beaches, looks like a small timber home with bars on the windows.

---
Axel and Bernadette Steele bought their first home at Narraweena in Sydney's northern beaches for a cool $1,006,000. And it was all about location.

"We looked for 18 months, researching different locations," Mr Steele said.

"We would have to live way out west on smaller properties. This is where my family is and where I lived my whole life."

But getting the finances for a million dollar property was not too difficult for the electrician and childcare worker.
"We had money behind us and are in stable jobs," Mr Steele said. "I have been in my job for five years and Bernadette for six or seven."

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/ing-first-homes-buyers-increasingly-spending-a-million-dollars/story-fncq3era-1226820981579
---

banco · 9 February 2014

Here is a tip for you and the other old coot Bill M. Either you and he made crappy or (at least mediocre) investments in the nineties as far as property goes (as there was little real growth) or it was a good investment because the gains far outpaced cpi (and as such it is commensurately less affordable than it was when you brought). It can't be both.

Bill M · 9 February 2014

trainspotter said:
HERE IS A TIP .... buy what you can afford and it does not have to be in Sydney !!!!!

Exactly, just an hour drive North from the Narraweena property I posted about is a similar house, just a quarter of the price.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-gorokan-115941267

trainspotter · 9 February 2014

banco said:
Here is a tip for you and the other old coot Bill M. Either you and he made crappy or (at least mediocre) investments in the nineties as far as property goes (as there was little real growth) or it was a good investment because the gains far outpaced cpi (and as such it is commensurately less affordable than it was when you brought). It can't be both.

grow up and get in the real world. I retired at 40 ... and am actively involved in real estate right now. Nothing has changed. Banks are pr1cks , buyers are liars and the dollars don't count till it is in your bank account as cleared funds.

p.s. I brought a cake to lunch ... I bought a cake with my money ... read the difference please.

Bill M · 9 February 2014

banco said:
Here is a tip for you and the other old coot Bill M.

Name calling, well done, is that the best you can do?

banco · 9 February 2014

Bill M said:
Name calling, well done, is that the best you can do?

Given neither of you have responded substantively to the point I made I guess calling me impolite is the best you can do.

Bill M · 9 February 2014

banco said:
Given neither of you have responded substantively to the point I made I guess calling me impolite is the best you can do.

Sorry banco, I can not respond to people like you and Mrmagoo anymore. Mrmagoo said I was the same as a "Pimp and Drug dealer" for being a property investor and you have called me an old coot. Once the name calling starts you have lost the plot, you are enraged with jealousy, hatred or maybe both. All we are trying to do is help people like you get into property through our experiences. If only you could see that. Good luck with your future.

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