The end is Nigh...

noie · 12 August 2010

So..

while writing a report today i noticed it is the 12th, and a Thursday

that means tomorrow is a BLACK day , Friday the 13th..

I was wondering if people had any stories about superstitions and trading, i have a couple and am happy to share them, only if people are interested..

N

gordon2007 · 12 August 2010

Re: The end is Nigh..

noie said:
So..
while writing a report today i noticed it is the 12th, and a Thursday
that means tomorrow is a BLACK day , Friday the 13th..
I was wondering if people had any stories about superstitions and trading, i have a couple and am happy to share them, only if people are interested..
N

'black days' are for those who are stupidstitious.

Garpal Gumnut · 12 August 2010

Re: The end is Nigh..

noie said:
So..

while writing a report today i noticed it is the 12th, and a Thursday

that means tomorrow is a BLACK day , Friday the 13th..

I was wondering if people had any stories about superstitions and trading, i have a couple and am happy to share them, only if people are interested..

N

I for one shall not be venturing out tomorrow.

gg

trainspotter · 12 August 2010

Re: The end is Nigh..

Paraskevidekatriaphobics - I think you will find this is what they are called. Nioka will be beside himself as he never sells on a Friday.

Did you know that there are more people in the USA with this fear than what there is in the WHOLE of Australia by population !!

noie · 12 August 2010

Re: The end is Nigh..

trainspotter said:
Paraskevidekatriaphobics - I think you will find this is what they are called. Nioka will be beside himself as he never sells on a Friday.

Did you know that there are more people in the USA with this fear than what there is in the WHOLE of Australia by population !!

Wow , no i didn't know that...!

I knew a floor trader in London who always wore his trading jacket inside out on any Friday the 13th.. he went on to be an market Observer and still to this day takes a sick day as often as he can on the dreaded day.

trainspotter · 12 August 2010

Re: The end is Nigh..

Black cats crossing my path is more my kind of thing. The fear of 13 or Friday does not do it for me sorry. I think the black cat thingy is from when I was about 19 and driving my HX sedan and I swerved to miss a black cat and hit the kerb which dented the rim and caused me to get a flat tyre. Whew ... glad that is out in the open.

trainspotter · 24 August 2010

Forget Friday the 13th and black cats and such silliness.

This is the real worry !

Free-Market Analysis: The more arcane the language, the more opaque the actual stimulative occurrences, the less people understand. That's the point of course. The average person should know only that tremendous and substantive efforts are being made by extremely intelligent people to avert economic disaster. This is a dominant social theme: "The powers-that-be are working hard on your behalf using intricate central banking procedures to ensure your welfare."

Let's dissect Federal Reserve actions to see if this is actually true. Once we have examined what is really going on, maybe we can draw some conclusions about what may happen next. Bear in mind all this is being written from the point of view of the current fiat money system as it configured via mercantilist, public-private central banks. A fiat money system is one where the link between an underlying commodity and paper money itself has been severed. This allows a public/private central bank to print just about as much money as central bankers wish to print.

This system is the worst of all worlds, in our opinion. Using the rationale of maintaining an independent monetary policy, central bankers are relieved of scrutiny and oversight and print and distribute to whomever they wish to – usually other private, monied institutions. The ability to print and distribute billions and even trillions of dollars without scrutiny is one of the most bizarre and shocking aspects of this illegitimate (and in our opinion fraudulent) system.

http://www.thedailybell.com/1161/US-Double-Dip-Depression.html

And this as well.

Have you maxed out your credit card? Bought shares with borrowed money? Taken out a large home loan believing that prices always go up? Then you may be living on borrowed time. Filmmaker Martin Borgs takes a provocative look at the events leading up the Global Financial Crisis and asks if the attempts to avoid a ruinous collapse of banks and other major finance houses may set the world on the path to an even bigger meltdown.

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2010/s2987864.htm

I watched this program with both eyes open. It is happeneing right now in the U.S.

Anyone got any reasons as to why it wont happen here in Australalia (Os - trey - LA - LIA)

Mofra · 24 August 2010

Who was it that said "I'm not supersticious and I never will be, touch wood"?

trainspotter · 24 August 2010

Mofra said:
Who was it that said "I'm not supersticious and I never will be, touch wood"?

Catweazle did !

basilio · 24 August 2010

trainspotter said:
And this as well.

Have you maxed out your credit card? Bought shares with borrowed money? Taken out a large home loan believing that prices always go up? Then you may be living on borrowed time. Filmmaker Martin Borgs takes a provocative look at the events leading up the Global Financial Crisis and asks if the attempts to avoid a ruinous collapse of banks and other major finance houses may set the world on the path to an even bigger meltdown.

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2010/s2987864.htm

I watched this program with both eyes open. It is happeneing right now in the U.S.

Anyone got any reasons as to why it wont happen here in Australalia (Os - trey - LA - LIA)

Yeah. Down right terrifying. Unfortunately even if one is prudent and careful a collapsing economic system will not discriminate.

It is very hard to argue with the figures of rapidly rising debt and asking where will it stop. The story reminded me of a somewhat similar presentation by George Monbiot a few years ago which explained why the ever expanding debt system of the capitalist system would end up in tears.

The system which governs our economic lives, which we call capitalism, is itself is a limited resource. Capitalism is a pyramid scheme. Let me try to explain this.

It is a built on a system called fractional reserve banking. Almost the entire money supply - generally, depending on where you live, between 90 and 95% of it - is issued not by the state, but the commercial banks. It is issued not in the form of notes and coins, but in the form of loans. Between 90 and 95% of the money supply, in other words, is debt.

To pay off the debt that is issued today, the banks must issue more debt tomorrow, and so on and so forth. In a world which is not based on material realities, the world which might exist, for an example, in a computer model, it could expand for ever. But in the real world, the supply of money is linked to material realities called collateral: the real wealth which gives the loans meaning, and without which the whole scheme would be exposed as a fraud. Eventually the amount of lending must inevitably exceed the availability of meaningful collateral, for the simple reason that the material world is finite while the possible issue of credit is not. That is the point at which the whole structure comes tumbling down.

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2004/10/06/no-longer-obeying-orders/

pixel · 24 August 2010

Mofra said:
Who was it that said "I'm not supersticious and I never will be, touch wood"?

that was probably the same Einstein that said "Thank God, I'm an Atheist!"

Julia · 24 August 2010

trainspotter said:
Have you maxed out your credit card? Bought shares with borrowed money? Taken out a large home loan believing that prices always go up? Then you may be living on borrowed time. Filmmaker Martin Borgs takes a provocative look at the events leading up the Global Financial Crisis and asks if the attempts to avoid a ruinous collapse of banks and other major finance houses may set the world on the path to an even bigger meltdown.

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2010/s2987864.htm

I watched this program with both eyes open. It is happeneing right now in the U.S.

Anyone got any reasons as to why it wont happen here in Australalia (Os - trey - LA - LIA)

The Four Corners program was very good, and I've been a bit surprised that it hasn't drawn comment until now. I didn't see the last quarter. Did, e.g. Peter Schiff have any recommendations re avoiding what seems to be inevitable?

Ruby · 24 August 2010

Julia said:
Did, e.g. Peter Schiff have any recommendations re avoiding what seems to be inevitable?

No, I don't think so Julia........ unless I missed it. I think the final comment was "Governments can bail out the banks, but who will bail out the governments?" It was a good program.

trainspotter · 24 August 2010

Julia said:
The Four Corners program was very good, and I've been a bit surprised that it hasn't drawn comment until now. I didn't see the last quarter. Did, e.g. Peter Schiff have any recommendations re avoiding what seems to be inevitable?

Surprised the heck out of me as well. I would have thought all the naysayers would have latched onto it like a bush tick on a kangaroo. Fancy someone as positive as me to bring it up ??

I was a bit disapponted cause it seemed to me a hatchet job by someone pushing an agenda. No mention of Credit Default Swaps and what the relationship to the GM/AIG bailouts were. Went on about the German car manufacturers ........ AAAAaaarrrrrgh ... global alright.

"Even the most cursory research would have uncovered that this thinly-veiled piece of tendentious propaganda was the work of the notorious Johan Norberg, a fellow of the Cato Institute, and one of the gaggle of libertarian extremists who actually want to blame 'big government' for the advent of the the global financial crisis." taken from the 4 corners opinion site.

Schiff said DIDDLY BTW.

Completely reminded me of this. Talk about fortune telling !

Mr Z · 24 August 2010

It was light on content, dumbed down and didn't credibly explain how the next wave of this thing will unfold. That is not to say that they had it wrong but that the thing had the flavor of a Climate Change Doco... lots of melting ice and scary ideas, loose connections but no proof, no credible discussion of the threat moving forward. It is interesting to see guys like Schiff hit our airwaves, he was a loan voice that was ridiculed (still is) for so long it is not funny. Yet in the broad scheme of things he has been on the money, GFC cross currents aside, lots of short term silliness went on there!

TS you may not like it but the Austrian School of Economics has this pegged in the broader scheme of things. Schiff is an Austrain and he has a great ability to strip away the BS and present the reality of the situation in a straight forward manner. We don't pay that approach in this modern world, we'd much rather have the indecipherable mutterings of Greenspan!

Anywhoooo the only complex part of this is how it washes out for Australia! We will be effected but it could be quite mildly if we do the right things. Sofa so good Countries will go broke here, interest rates and the derivatives surrounding them will come under big pressure and it will take people out on a stretcher down here! When, who, how many are the questions to be resolved and we can still impact the latter two IMO. This storm will break and it is likely the last bubble before some major changes in our global financial world.... when? Sooner than YOU probably think and longer than I probably think! We have certainly seen the first tremors this year with the PIIGS, I think that the patches applied will hold for a year or three but I don't see that we are at the end of this story. The next time we are all feeling very confident... start to worry :

Enough doom and gloom 4 YA?

I'd hate for you to miss out!

Did you see the special about Indonesia and the gold and silver dinars? Sound money up there, who'd have thunk it! Maybe Bali is the go!

Mr Z · 24 August 2010

trainspotter said:
"Even the most cursory research would have uncovered that this thinly-veiled piece of tendentious propaganda was the work of the notorious Johan Norberg, a fellow of the Cato Institute, and one of the gaggle of libertarian extremists who actually want to blame 'big government' for the advent of the the global financial crisis."

LOL... but it is the truth! Big government completely set the scene for all of this! There is nothing extreme about that idea, they are the cancer in the system! They fostered all of the crappy things that went on in soooo many ways it is hard to know where to begin.

trainspotter · 24 August 2010

Mr Z said:
Enough doom and gloom 4 YA?

I'd hate for you to miss out!

Did you see the special about Indonesia and the gold and silver dinars? Sound money up there, who'd have thunk it! Maybe Bali is the go!

Hardly ! I am aware of the storm clouds on the horizon and just like you I spruiked them when I joined this forum about 12 months ago. I have a backup plan all set in motion.

Base metal currency is the only way forward. Large scale monetary system based on solidarity will be hard to implement in Australia. Indonesians own nothing and are ruled by less than 3% of the wealthy people who are linked to the government. $100 USD per month for a wage is not much in the scheme of things. Graft and corruption is rife. Don't get me started. I had my passport taken off me in Batam by an overzealous official. $500 USD to get it back stamped.

moXJO · 24 August 2010

Doom and Gloom is soooo 2008
Get with the times people

I think everyone doomed themselves out last dip. People were saying the exact same thing back in 2000 on forums about the end of the US$ and they somehow managed to keep that debt ball rolling. Eventually it will catch up to them but waiting around for it could take a while.

Logique · 24 August 2010

Watch the replay of Four Corners tonight at 11:40

It's the most bearish prediction on the market I've seen in a long time. Double-dip extravaganza.

Mr Z · 24 August 2010

Nice pad TS... building in Bali must be fun! I had enough issues with Aussie contractors to keep me scratching my head. The again I was going upmarket, not bulk standard and that was the cause of most issues!

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