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The (Economic) World in 2030

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By this time I would have received my second beauty make-over, and here's what I think the world's economy will, to some extent, look like:

Major countries that are not strongly allied with the US: China, Pakistan, Russia. Iran was luckily softened up with social media sites long ago and their government was overthrown. Careful attention was placed on allies and non-allies as this gives some sort of a blueprint as to what a major war might look like if the ^$%##$^ hits the fan!

The world has become more homogenous. Emerging countries have a net loss of their traditional and established way of life and a net gain of western ideals and debt.

The US is still in control-mode and has survived several stock market crashes and recessions. The norm has become to not pay a huge part of one’s perpetual debt and this goes for many individuals, companies as well as countries. In fact, the concept of ‘debt’ has been redefined to accommodate these sorts of lending practices. People ‘now’ (in the future!) see this as a normal practice.

One world-wide correction resulted, not from debt or the hand of the Federal Reserve, but by the development and implementation of quantum computing and its ability to in an instant decrypt, through even brute-force, classical computing encryptions. So financial companies, governments, internet etc had to reinvest heavily and reinvent themselves, which was costly. There was another mini tech boom too as next generation computing was born. But no terminators, yet!

Europe is heavily in debt and is going nowhere really. The ECB is just a big bank. England and Germany are the two stand-outs and have a major say in the control of world markets. Germany (becomes a stronger US ally) is more committed to market control with the US and continues to control the next generation, thinking, algorithmic trading computers.

The middle east is still in turmoil. It had promising periods, but newly formed governments helped along by the west ended up doing a 180 degree turn; nothing new here.

Deliberate control and manipulation of patented next generation automotive technologies has stifled the transition from combustion engines, hydrocarbon fuels etc to next generation cleaner fuels and electric vehicles. This along with other stubborn and unyielding practices has caused shortages of commodities and traditional hydrocarbon forms of energy.

China has the world's largest economy but does not control the electronic markets; this (most asset classes around the world) is still under the US's control and the US along with Germany and England control the majority of sophisticated, intelligent, algorithmic computer trades, that control the direction of all asset classes and markets, even if it’s just indirectly.

Many of these exchanges are cloud-exchanges which makes it even harder to regulate and even locate. Collusion and market fixing is still part of the game.

Commodities are on a rollercoaster ride; yes they will go lower than what they are today as inverse pressures force them down and speculation and the lack of supply will force them up again and again. There are way too many people on Earth and resources are at a scarce; no surprises here. Stockpiling is widespread.

Countries like Australia may have to militarize and further protect its borders and protect non-urban regions for fear of a possible invasion by hostile and desperate nations that need its expensive and rare resources; and they probably don't want to pay for them anymore. A long shot, but still a concern even in the next 50+ years. It will become an even bigger ally of the US.

China has a real problem; the demographics are skewered and do not favour an even +4% growth anymore (yes, no longer 10%). Their cities have long become the most expensive in the world (and so have many of their products!) and there still is a problem of the ultra-rich and the mega poor. The west still finds it hard to do business there, and there is growing unrest by a restricted and controlled people. The west may at times latently manipulate this to their advantage.

India has a different crisis on its hands - the most overpopulated country and a real strain on their and the world’s economy; I wonder if nations will collaboratively form an agreement to kind-of ‘tax’ countries like India, via tariffs, for not making an effort to control its projected overpopulation and burdening other nations with higher costs for soft and hard commodities. Hard to believe now, but the world may be forced to make changes like these especially as it becomes more homogenized and unified policies are agreed to, adopted and enforced by the majority.

Another competing reserve currency failed to dethrown the USD, as it was initially used, accepted but ended up being manipulated on the exchange markets by the US and their highly sophisticated trading computer networks, which still controls the markets.

Wealth will still be made from lack of supply and high demand for space/land, housing, soft and hard commodities etc and not necessarily form innovative developments and innovations. So don’t expect the world to look too dissimilar to what it does today; just more populated and more expensive. A real let-down if you ask me.

The Federal Reserve (which has recently 'made' itself unbankruptable) is still in control, however, some fundamental changes were needed. It became more transparent but still managed to overstimulate the world's (not just the US’s) economy again and again. Hey, they're too big to fail.

One of the biggest problems that countries have is an overburdening perpetuating debt crisis. Many, including the US, have no choice but to restructure their economies and even currencies. And yes, the finger was shown to countries holding and demanding payment on (unpayable) debt, more than once.

The ‘New World Order’ (which enjoys brunch with members of the Federal Reserve) is still out of site and they have not registered a business name and are not paying company taxes! But is enjoying all of the spoils it deserves! :eek:

The media is pure infotainment and continually ignores high level white collar corruption.

The United States has the most sophisticated military by far, and has opened up its doors to next generation defence and avionics (out of this world!) technologies, to some extent or to the extent they permit!

Two of the biggest risks are overpopulation and perpetual debt.

To Be Continued…
 
Little reality and a lot of wishful thinking here. And most of it is the reality of today. In 20 years we will not recognise the current world in my view, if we can even see it. Food for a start is hiting crisis point now and increasing unrest will combine to see millions unfortunately die.

The US on a per capiter basis has more debt than Europe. And as someone pointed up this morning, (a bit off topic here) Australia may be one of the worse off in actual fact. The chart showing mining versus debt since 1988 is a stark must see in my view.

http://www.governmentmedia.com.au/index.php/blogs/25-economy-ponzi-scheme
 
Little reality and a lot of wishful thinking here. And most of it is the reality of today. In 20 years we will not recognise the current world in my view, if we can even see it. Food for a start is hiting crisis point now and increasing unrest will combine to see millions unfortunately die.

What will it look like then?
 
What will it look like then?

There is only one certainty.........
Gillard implements a carbon tax and Australia saves the planet.

I'd say food shortages and energy shortages coupled with overpopulation. Got to be a major war in there somewhere as well.
 
2030: Most Aussie capital cities will resemble a mix of Beijing, Mumbai and Abu Dhabi, with traffic chaos, services overload and generally good times all round! Hopefully I have bought my island by then!
 
What will it look like then?

Suggesting we may not be able to see it when it comes because we could well be all gone. Karputt. Just my humble opinion of course.

Do the sums, world population has grown by more than 33% since the year 2000.
 
Suggesting we may not be able to see it when it comes because we could well be all gone. Karputt. Just my humble opinion of course.

Maybe thats why world governments don't care about racking up huge debts. Party like it's the end of the world:D
 
Maybe thats why world governments don't care about racking up huge debts. Party like it's the end of the world:D

Interesting, an old friend of mine told a few of us back in 1993 just what you have stated moX..., his words, "forget all this activism stuff, just party" He was the only one in the group that had a Phd too.

Moral, best not to know too much if you want to be(feel) fair dinkum, maybe:)
 
While the trend isn't good for Australia and some of the beautiful cities of Europe, trends do change. Melbourne itself has a ghetto type of atmosphere forming around Swanston and Elizabeth streets near Flinders St/Fed square, right near its heart. My friend explained that everyone has a right to be here, and do whatever they want, which is true, but she is a lot more tolerant than me. Bless her. :)

I too agree with the party on sentiment. Just have fun! Dec 2012 is only around the corner!
 
Food shortages will probably be the big issue of the next 20 years (and for the rest of the century). Expect rising unrest in most of the developing world stemming from the ongoing food crisis.

Internal tensions within China will also probably reach breaking point from years of unprecedented unrest as result of global food price shocks. Expect months of ongoing civil disobedience and mass casualties. But rather than one final catastrophic confrontation, diplomatic pressure, especially from US, Europe and India would prompt the ruling party to push through more meaningful gradual and progressive reforms that were initially promised, with the one party system remaining intact but huge changes within the ruling party elite nevertheless.

With china introducing these new progressive reforms, expect Australia to strengthen its relationship with China while at the same time distancing itself further from the debt-burdened US as the idea gains more popular support within Australia. Military expenditure in Australia will probably decline at this point from the levels they are today with the strengthening in ties with China.
 
Food shortages will probably be the big issue of the next 20 years (and for the rest of the century). Expect rising unrest in most of the developing world stemming from the ongoing food crisis.

Internal tensions within China will also probably reach breaking point from years of unprecedented unrest as result of global food price shocks. Expect months of ongoing civil disobedience and mass casualties. But rather than one final catastrophic confrontation, diplomatic pressure, especially from US, Europe and India would prompt the ruling party to push through more meaningful gradual and progressive reforms that were initially promised, with the one party system remaining intact but huge changes within the ruling party elite nevertheless.

With china introducing these new progressive reforms, expect Australia to strengthen its relationship with China while at the same time distancing itself further from the debt-burdened US as the idea gains more popular support within Australia. Military expenditure in Australia will probably decline at this point from the levels they are today with the strengthening in ties with China.

You don't think that relations with China might go the other way in the next couple of decades onwards? Would we really have stronger ties with China than a long-time ally the United States? So why would sophisticated government hackers in China allegedly break into our sacred high-end government computers in Australia? Outside of the friendly smiles for the cameras and for important trade relations, do you really think we can trust the Chinese government like we do with the US? Especially when it doesn't grant their people the freedom that our governments grant us. Look what happens to bloggers who are just expressing their opinions in China.
 
You don't think that relations with China might go the other way in the next couple of decades onwards? Would we really have stronger ties with China than a long-time ally the United States? So why would sophisticated government hackers in China allegedly break into our sacred high-end government computers in Australia? Outside of the friendly smiles for the cameras and for important trade relations, do you really think we can trust the Chinese government like we do with the US? Especially when it doesn't grant their people the freedom that our governments grant us. Look what happens to bloggers who are just expressing their opinions in China.

This is all assuming that China has pushed through very significant reforms and made huge changes right at the very top of the ruling party, which it will probably have no choice but to do so within the next 20 years. So the example you give about hacking or bloggers will be associated with the "old regime" or "the old china", as this thoretical "new china" would apparently grant its citizens basic human rights. This isn't guaranteed to happen but it's possible.

Relations can change when new governments and reforms are introduced. It wouldn't be any different to US-Japan or US-German relations after WW2. Trust can be built over time when countries become more democratic and introduce reforms.
 
Rising population, increasing per capita consumption, declining discoveries, increasing reluctance to use some available technologies...

Either we come up with something truly radical and adopt it far more rapidly than any previous similar situation, or there's got to be a major energy crisis in there somewhere (and quite likely a war as a result).

Note in this context that food and petroleum are basically interchangeable these days but only in one direction - you can have a food shortage without an oil shortage but you can't have an oil shortage without also creating a food shortage (since we'll simply burn the food as ethanol).

And of course the other certainty is there will be some major event that none of us have forseeen. :2twocents
 
This is all assuming that China has pushed through very significant reforms and made huge changes right at the very top of the ruling party, which it will probably have no choice but to do so within the next 20 years. So the example you give about hacking or bloggers will be associated with the "old regime" or "the old china", as this thoretical "new china" would apparently grant its citizens basic human rights. This isn't guaranteed to happen but it's possible.

Relations can change when new governments and reforms are introduced. It wouldn't be any different to US-Japan or US-German relations after WW2. Trust can be built over time when countries become more democratic and introduce reforms.

Let's hope and it will be a much better world. I find the Chinese here in Australia (and other parts of the world) some of the most friendlies people with a lot going for them. My criticism of course is of their system in China, and I just don't see how a country of that size and influence can do a 180 degree turn, even over time, and adopt a western style of doing things in general (democracy etc etc). The politicians might be saying this and meaning this too (in front of cameras), but you have a hard-core, intelligent, influential, really powerful military that probably won't adopt and adjust; not even to a few degrees. I think that there already exists hidden and open tension between the ruling party and the military and one that is perhaps non compromising.

Once you've changed the essence of your character, you've changed a lot. Will China take this risk? I don't think it will as there is too much opposition to such a move.
 
Rising population, increasing per capita consumption, declining discoveries, increasing reluctance to use some available technologies...

Either we come up with something truly radical and adopt it far more rapidly than any previous similar situation, or there's got to be a major energy crisis in there somewhere (and quite likely a war as a result).

Note in this context that food and petroleum are basically interchangeable these days but only in one direction - you can have a food shortage without an oil shortage but you can't have an oil shortage without also creating a food shortage (since we'll simply burn the food as ethanol).

And of course the other certainty is there will be some major event that none of us have forseeen. :2twocents

Hey, this is a very good post. I think you have shown some real unyielding dynamics that might have some very serious consequences. Also, and oil shortage during the last world war meant a food shortage too, even though they weren't using such things like ethanol then.

That's why I mentioned patents earlier (that get bought-up by large competitors like oil companies). This has always been one thing that stops innovations and progress, along with laziness, ignorance and too much time spent on mobile phone apps. Just think of all those engineer university students preoccupying themselves with apps and just hoping to get a job for one of those big oil companies. But then again, if the unique parts and components are being restricted for use for ground-breaking innovations, then why not just play with your apps, watch idiotic reality TV shows and hope to make a six figure salary for one of the oil companies.
 
Alian life presenting themselves to us?

May of already happened. I know you're joking but just think of how long we have been an intelligent being; debatable, some might say thousands of years (correct) and some might say a few hundred. Either way, I don't think we are in a position to dismiss the possibility or likelihood of there being capable and way beyond human-intelligence 'life' out there. The manipulation of gravity and space is one thing that is needed to master unbelievable 'speeds' in a vacuumed space (unlike anything we can conceivably do today). We are very human-centric, but don't underestimate the potential and ability out there. Just imagine how intelligent humans will be in let's say 10,000 years. Don't you think our then physics text books will look different to today's?
 
Konkon, it is not reasonable to make economic forecasts 20 years into the future.

However, following general trends, one can be assured that things are going to be worse than their are now, for the West at least. That is absolutely guaranteed. By 2030, Europe will most likely be a conflict-ridden mess similar to the middle-east. North America will be similar. As for Australia, the nation-less nation, becoming a Chinese protectorate would not be surprising.

Leave to future till the future, just make sure you are moving your own personal self in the right direction. 'Tis all you can do.
 
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