Economic Collision Course:
The “Crash of 2010”
KINGSTON, NY, 26 August 2010 ”” Following the “Panic of ’08” and the subsequent “Great Recession,” Washington, Wall Street and the media united to promote the belief that extreme crisis management measures enacted by governments had rescued the world, and staved off even worse disaster.
“Recovery” was in the air. “Recovery” was the word on the public’s lips. “Recovery” was fervently preached and endlessly pitched.
A very few argued that the measures could not work; that they would not live up to expectations. But only Gerald Celente predicted, from the onset, that they would fail completely, leading to the “Crash of 2010” and an inevitable descent into the “Greatest Depression.”
Now, with the data catching up to Celente and the economic skies falling, the “Recovery Hawks” have turned “Chicken Little.”
Celente plotted out the collision course and provided strategies for both steering clear of the dead end “Road to Recovery” and following roads less traveled that would lead to safety and success.
As every driver knows, in the moment before a collision there’s a gap – a split second – between recognition of the crash to come and the impact. In economic terms, that gap was the period between August 2007 (when we pinpointed an imminent financial crisis) and now … August 2010.
Now there is only the “split second.” On the macro-level, and for those who invested everything they had in “Recovery,” there will be no avoiding the “Crash of 2010.” On the individual level, there is still time to take both evasive action and proactive measures.
Be warned! While we see a split second left to take evasive action, some of the biggest names in business still blindly persist in minimizing the danger: Bloomberg, August 25 – “Durable-Goods Orders, Home Sales Signal Danger of Renewed U.S. Recession.” Even Nouriel Roubini, the media’s pet pessimist, put the odds of renewed recession at only 40 percent.
“Renewed recession”? Odds of recession? It’s bogus bookmaking – odds spun out of thin air and fobbed off as economics. The “Great Recession” never ended! The $13 trillion lent, spent and guaranteed by Washington and the Federal Reserve didn’t put an end to the recession, it just put it into a brief remission.
And what about the Dow that’s rebounded from its 2009 low of 6,830 and currently trades around 10,000? Touted as a recovery bellwether, in reality, the Dow was trading at 10,000 in 1999. Moreover, when adjusted for inflation, Dow 10,000 of 2010 is really the equivalent of only Dow 8,200 in 1999.
But Wall Street and the media do an excellent job of concealing such facts from the public. In their perpetually sunny financial skies, it is always, always, always a “buying opportunity.”
As Gerald Celente and The Trends Research Institute have been saying all along: insiders aside, investing in the stock market is a loser’s game. Just to get back to its 1999 level in real, inflation-adjusted terms, the Dow would have to hit 13,460.
What was not a loser’s game was gold. Trading at a $255 per ounce low in 1999, it trades at $1240 today. That is close to a 500 percent gross increase. Adjusted for inflation using the same rate applied to the Dow above, gold is currently worth around $880 in 1999 dollars… and heading higher.
We called the beginning of the “Gold Bull Run” in 2001, when gold was at $275 per ounce. The next breakout point for gold is $1300. From that point forward, depending upon which of a handful of wildcards get played, we forecast “Gold $2000” – and possibly higher.
Whatever your investment strategy may be, proactive measures taken now will minimize the impact of the “Crash of 2010” that, by the New Year, will be unmistakable and undeniable. Rather than debating the probabilities of a double-dip recession, the business media will be glomming onto the financial body counts littering Wall Street as though it were another Katrina.