The Collapse of the USA Possible?

wayneL · 2 September 2009

Yes - according to Russian academic Igor Panarin. What a scary thought!

I must admit, I don't discount the possibility, even if I think... hope it is highly unlikely.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html#articleTabs=article

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Not many are taking him seriously, but not many would have believed what has happened in the last year beforehand.

**fingers crossed

bowman · 2 September 2009

California is almost broke and has been morally bankrupt for years.

That's two strikes for California. One more strike and I say hand it over to the Mexicans.

Sean K · 2 September 2009

There'll probably be a world war before hand, and at the moment, it's hard to see the US not prevailing.

After that, who knows.

Marc Faber has been saying that for a little while.

tech/a · 2 September 2009

Highly likely.
Its what we don't know or see that will bring it all down.
How many Ponzi schemes are really out there?

This has been pushed under the table.

http://www.cornerstoneri.com/comments/TrillionDollarSecret.htm

Still there!

Mr J · 2 September 2009

It's certainly possible, and it doesn't seem unlikely if they continue on the path they're on. War doesn't seem unreasonable, as it's expected that a wounded beast lash out in desperation. As US influence starts to wail more significantly, perhaps they'll resort to force.

theasxgorilla · 2 September 2009

Didn't the US invent Chapter 11, duh, hello...??? Just do business there and with them with your eyes open. There one day, gone the next, and back again as something else... that's the American way.

wayno76 · 2 September 2009

Google video zeitgeist

This could be the start of another play by the real players.

explod · 2 September 2009

tech/a said:
Highly likely.
Its what we don't know or see that will bring it all down.
How many Ponzi schemes are really out there?

This has been pushed under the table.

http://www.cornerstoneri.com/comments/TrillionDollarSecret.htm

Still there!

I am not saying anything Tech, I dont know much but from the books I have read the last few years it is a sad prospect for millions of ordinary people, not only in the US, the prospects will hurt all of us in one way or another.

Trembling Hand · 2 September 2009

Why does everything have to Collapse? People talk about the USD Collapsing all the time, never devaluing which is far more likely. People talk like there will be anarchy just around the corner, rioting hungry mobs burning down the Government and business infrastructure sending them back to the dark ages.

People like to use past outcomes to predict/guide future events. Have a look at the last blow up of a super power, Russia. They collapsed and hardly a dog missed a nail clipping here. And another 10-20 years they may be stronger than ever only 30 or so years later. Communism was much more of a ponzi joke than the non-free market Capitalist too big to fail US.

A more likely path is the UK example. Being by passed by a new player.

swm79 · 2 September 2009

theasxgorilla said:
Didn't the US invent Chapter 11, duh, hello...??? Just do business there and with them with your eyes open. There one day, gone the next, and back again as something else... that's the American way.

second that.... they want what THEY want but at the same time parade around trying to make you think they're doing it for you... meanwhile you're bent over a table with your pants around your ankles... and HEAVEN FORBID THEY find themselves in the same situation.

Hugo Chavez anyone? dont get me started

pointr · 2 September 2009

Trembling Hand has expressed an idea that has been in my head for a while. If the Net had been around as the British Empire was unravelling what would everyone had said. America has lived on borrowed money for too long and exported a lot of its manufacturing overseas, there has to be a reckoning. Economically Australia is in a better position than most being an exporter to some of the next economic superpowers

wayneL · 2 September 2009

Trembling Hand said:
Why does everything have to Collapse? People talk about the USD Collapsing all the time, never devaluing which is far more likely. People talk like there will be anarchy just around the corner, rioting hungry mobs burning down the Government and business infrastructure sending them back to the dark ages.

People like to use past outcomes to predict/guide future events. Have a look at the last blow up of a super power, Russia. They collapsed and hardly a dog missed a nail clipping here. And another 10-20 years they may be stronger than ever only 30 or so years later. Communism was much more of a ponzi joke than the non-free market Capitalist too big to fail US.

A more likely path is the UK example. Being by passed by a new player.

That has basically been my view... economic hegemony handed to China on a silver platter.

There are a few dynamics at play in the US however that make a collapse *possible* (though I still think... hope, improbable).

I'm always one to account for possibilities... prepare for the worst but hope for the best. But don't ever underestimate the Yanks - If they face reality (and I believe they will sometime soon), they will pull a rabbit out of a hat.

$20shoes · 2 September 2009

With the current banking system almost completely broken, and no one seemingly able to completely reinvent the rules for a new monetary system, the US remains completely exposed to any shock. Large scale Ponzi schemes/derivatives unwinding would be a crippling blow right now.

All the government seems willing/able to do is to keep amassing larger amounts of debt. This is a path to tread if you've flushed out all the non-performing loans and you see a way of coping with this over the next decade or so. But the US still doesn't know what's around the corner. The US/UK are already in a position where they cannot hope to pay off their debt.

From Bloomberg a couple of days ago -

The U.S. added 111 lenders to its list of “problem banks,” a jump that suggests rising bank failures may force the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to deplete a reserve fund that shrank 40 percent this year. A total of 416 banks with combined assets of $299.8 billion failed the FDIC’s grading system for asset quality, liquidity and earnings in the second quarter, the most since June 1994, the Washington-based FDIC said in a report today.

------------------------------------

The FDIC insures deposits at 8,195 institutions with $13.3 trillion in assets, including over 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders who own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings (What the?? even with lax mark to market guidelines?)

The FDIC reported on Thursday that more than one out of four U.S. banks was unprofitable during the second quarter.

Anyone for a deposit bailout in the next 18 months?

Taltan · 2 September 2009

Firstly the US exports more than us and thier household debts are lower so if they do collapse we would be in real trouble.

Having said that looking at the Roman empire onwards it is incongruent for the world's superpower/s to not be the place where people enjoy the best standard of living. Currently the US (and Aus, Can etc) can sustain debt because basically people want to live there. As long as life is better in the US than China than millionnaires will be willing to put capital in the US and keep it afloat.

Alternatively the only way China could reach US living standards would be to float their currency and lose the competetive advantage they currently enjoy. So its a catch 22.

Trembling Hand · 2 September 2009

$20shoes said:
Large scale Ponzi schemes/derivatives unwinding would be a crippling blow right now.

The Derivatives blow up as a furphy, a beat up by the tin hat nutters.

It will be one of the many forgot mistakes of this opportunity. But why would you expect anything else. Few think most regurgitate.

Have a look at the evidence you have in your post after the above line? Derivatives involved???

$20shoes · 2 September 2009

Trembling Hand said:
The Derivatives blow up as a furphy, a beat up by the tin hat nutters.

It will be one of the many forgot mistakes of this opportunity. But why would you expect anything else. Few think most regurgitate.

Have a look at the evidence you have in your post after the above line? Derivatives involved???

Yes TH, I'm not talking about a systemic collapse in our monetary system - that's doomsday drivel and alarmist. (But our banking is seemingly broken right now).I'm suggesting that where we saw issues in hedging and credit default swaps earlier in the piece, we may yet see some further "unknown" risk. For instance, if you are propping up over 150 institutions with 5% non performing loans, you are betting that at some point you can fix these insolvent banks either by moving their debt out to a buyer etc. Bailout money does not make them solvent. Obviously the market has this factored in anyway, but where i'm coming from is that there is still a lot of "unforseeables" still to play out in this arena, and I can see an opportunity for shock to the system.

$20shoes · 2 September 2009

$20shoes said:
...there is still a lot of "unforseeables" still to play out in this arena.

Silly comment - everything is unforseeable! :
I guess we're talking about probabilities.

websman · 2 September 2009

Just outside my window, there are rioters and looters. The dollar has collapsed...I am forced to steal food to survive. oh yes...My country is doomed...I will suffer, for sure.

NOT!!!! LMFAO!!!!

No...We're fine.

Knobby22 · 2 September 2009

The Roman empire took 200 years to collapse once the rot set in and Mexican's and Canadian's are hardly barbarians.

All the US needs is a couple of good Presidents. I think Obama will help unite the country and then we need another one following. Surely George Bush the lessor has a son waiting in the wings

What the USA desperately needs is a better media. Unfortunately they don'y have the BBC or ABC and the standard of reporting is unbelievably awful generally. Have you seen how the health policies are being reported??

I really hate the pandering to the dumb right, such as Sarah Palin saying heath care reform will lead to euthanasia and death panels! She should be laughed at, not taken seriously with bated breath.

http://sarahpalintruthsquad.wordpress.com/2009/08/25/palin-death-panels-smite-journalism/

wayneL · 2 September 2009

websman said:
Just outside my window, there are rioters and looters. The dollar has collapsed...I am forced to steal food to survive. oh yes...My country is doomed...I will suffer, for sure.

NOT!!!! LMFAO!!!!

No...We're fine.

Just think webs, another opportunity for the Confederacy

The Collapse of the USA Possible?

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

bowman

Sean K

Moderator

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

Mr J

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

wayno76

explod

explod

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

swm79

pointr

wayneL

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$20shoes

Taltan

Trembling Hand

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$20shoes

$20shoes

websman

Illogical Vulcan

Knobby22

Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

wayneL

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The Collapse of the USA Possible?

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explod

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Illogical Vulcan

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