The CFD, the Cynic and the 600 dollars - What could possibly go wrong?

OmegaTrader · 3 November 2016

Hi Cynic

What is your ultimate goal?

you already reached X3 haaha

I remember the famous poker player Chris ferguson, started a no deposit challenge
playing on free poker tournaments where you can win a couple of cents
to eventually increase entry size get to I think $10,000 total equity over a long period of time.

You could try and do the same to prove its possible to go from $600 micro account to $10,000.

Of course over a longer period of time and larger number to trades to show it is not just pure luck.

Also a equity graph really does paint a thousand words in this case.

minwa · 3 November 2016

OmegaTrader said:
You could try and do the same to prove its possible to go from $600 micro account to $10,000.

Search Trembling Hand's challenge thread Couple of years ago.

cynic · 4 November 2016

OmegaTrader said:
Hi Cynic

What is your ultimate goal?

you already reached X3 haaha

I remember the famous poker player Chris ferguson, started a no deposit challenge
playing on free poker tournaments where you can win a couple of cents
to eventually increase entry size get to I think $10,000 total equity over a long period of time.

You could try and do the same to prove its possible to go from $600 micro account to $10,000.

Of course over a longer period of time and larger number to trades to show it is not just pure luck.

Also a equity graph really does paint a thousand words in this case.

I generally find that it is a mistake to make attibutions to the concept of "luck" when trading. It is far too easy to dismiss results (whether good or bad) as mere happenstance, when they seldom truly are.

Every strategy I have ever deployed has had it's strengths and its vulnerabilities. The events of the past few weeks have thoroughly expoited both of these aspects(in respect to one of my deployments), as can be readily seen in the evidence of the results.

As for my ultimate goal, it is to simply see what might be achievable, and to have some fun whilst doing so!

Had the 3Ã— milestone been captured in the subsequent daily statement, I would have been setting a new and larger goal. Sadly it seems that this latest string of losses is set to continue and will probably derail the deployment this time around. So the goal for the present is to keep the finger on the pulse whilst my other hand hovers over the "panic button".

minwa said:
Search Trembling Hand's challenge thread Couple of years ago.

Quite true, and really nothing new to those, like yourself, skilled in the utilisation of leveraged instruments.

Gringotts Bank said:
Can I make a suggestion?

[edit] well I'm going to anyway. You were doing very well. Don't get pulled down.

Thanks for your kind advice GB. The present situation might never have arisen if I had truly been doing well. But, just the same, it is very kind of you to interpret things that way.

Anyhow, as will probably already be quite apparent, one of my strategies appears to have encountered its personal...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj_9CiNkkn4

At this rate I am wondering whether this account will even survive to see NFP, let alone the US presidential election!

Account value 130%ish.

Triple damn it!!!

OmegaTrader · 4 November 2016

minwa said:
Search Trembling Hand's challenge thread Couple of years ago.

Could you point me to this thread??

When I say luck I mean the fact that when you have a longer period of time and more trades it is less likely that someone can credibly say "that was just lucky"

The whole point of the small amount to $10,00... Is to prove it is possible with consistency to reach a reasonable amount of money without significant starting capital and not relying on fluking it with a few highly geared/volatie trades

Habakkuk · 4 November 2016

OmegaTrader said:
Could you point me to this thread??

Minwa may have been referring to this thread ...https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683
although it's a lot more than a couple of years ago. Maybe there is another one.

OmegaTrader · 5 November 2016

Habakkuk said:
Minwa may have been referring to this thread ...https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683
although it's a lot more than a couple of years ago. Maybe there is another one.

Yeah it is kind of similar.

sorry for hijacking the thread too much

What I mean is you say I am starting with x amount e.g $600 and will turn it into $10,000

or X3 times whatever you want.....

with no deposits, just to show that it is possible.

In a sense it is physiological but also that you do not need a significant staring capital

If you have $10,000 and lose some/all it then you have lost your money (in your mental account),

but if you put $600 and make $10,000 then that is trading money(in your mental account).

So it is like saying I got $10,000 and only risked my time and effort

Because I only invested $600

Even though ironically it is quicker and more efficient to just work your normal employment/job/business activities for the money to get a starting capital.

So if you lose the small amount you can back out and treat it as losing activity or gambling money, which is better than just ploughing through 10 k straight away.

I can't read Cynic's mind.. or can I?

But he may be treating this money as trading money( in his mental account)

Which is a good excuse to gamble the $1,800 ($600x300+%)

... just speculating

But $1800 is $1800

money is money etc

It is like when you get reward points or frequent flyers, the rational decision is just to spend the money at coles/woolies or on a cheap flight deal

but often people feel that points are somehow meant to be spent on overpriced electronics

Ultimately the exercise is to give hope to people....

Chris Ferguson can turn freeroll poker into $10,000 etc

A trader can turn their micro account $600 into a $10,000 trading balance...

therefore so can I eventually...

with hard work and determination etc

I would like to do the exercise but have to be profitable first ahaha

If I win stock tipping $100, I will try this

I don't know how far $100 will go . hahaha

cheers

cynic · 7 November 2016

OmegaTrader said:
Yeah it is kind of similar.

sorry for hijacking the thread too much

Not at all! Your posts have all been on topic and are most definitely welcome.

What I mean is you say I am starting with x amount e.g $600 and will turn it into $10,000

or X3 times whatever you want.....

with no deposits, just to show that it is possible.

Unfortunately I did something overambitious during the earlier weeks of this exercise. In my impatience to get things moving, I implemented a strategy that aggressively incremented trade sizes subsequent to successes. It worked wonders during the winning streaks, but, naturally, set things up for a very heavy smackdown whenever the tide abruptly turned.

In order to mitigate the perceived risk, the original position size was set quite small. I had hoped that the accumulated profits would serve as an adequate buffer for any successive drawdowns. My earlier estimation of the duration of the streaks (both winning and losing) proved short of the mark, and the initial exercise was derailed by a heavy drawdown that necessitated additional funds or abandonment of the stategy.

So the original intention of trading the account with only the $600 was derailed, however, given that I was otherwise happy with the prospects (just disappointed that I didn't commence with more conservative sizing) I chose to salvage the situation with a deposit of some additional funds.

The percentages reported thereafter have been based upon the total funds deposited to the account (i.e. the original $600 promotion plus the deposit pursuant to Cynic's intervention).

I have chosen not to disclose the specific amount of the deposit, and simply refer to it as "then some". So, in effect, this exercise is now being performed with 600 and then some dollars.

cynic · 7 November 2016

cynic said:
Well the Cynic was feeling lucky, but as things turned out, just not quite lucky enough. The account value is currently 295%ish!

Anyway, definitely drawing...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PT2_F-1esPk...to the milestone.

cynic said:
The day got off to a great start with the account value skipping through the milestone to an all time high above 305%.

But before the cynic could pop the cap (on the bottle of savings brand lemonade) in celebration of the anticipated immortalisation of this achievement (via the daily statement) some FTSEing event or other simply had to come along to FTSEing...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7KbGJcxenDc...on recent fortunes, smashing the account value back down to 255%ish.

Damn it!

cynic said:
With CFDs it's typically very easy to change direction, as is the case with those currently offered by CMC. But is that the right question?

To flip or not to flip? That is the question!

When one chooses to flip outside of accordance with one's strategy/plan/method, Ms. Market will often treat that as an open invitation to drive the trader flipping mad!

My preference is to rely on the panic button. You know the big red one boldly marked "Get Me the FTSE outta Here!!!"

However, this time around it's looking like flipping may have saved me a motza! Oh how often the same discipline that reaps the rewards subsequently trashes them!

Anyway, just when I was thinking things couldn't get...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1crL10P3m_E...well see for yourselves!

Account value 185%ish.

Double damn it!!

cynic said:
I generally find that it is a mistake to make attibutions to the concept of "luck" when trading. It is far too easy to dismiss results (whether good or bad) as mere happenstance, when they seldom truly are.

Every strategy I have ever deployed has had it's strengths and its vulnerabilities. The events of the past few weeks have thoroughly expoited both of these aspects(in respect to one of my deployments), as can be readily seen in the evidence of the results.

As for my ultimate goal, it is to simply see what might be achievable, and to have some fun whilst doing so!

Had the 3Ã— milestone been captured in the subsequent daily statement, I would have been setting a new and larger goal. Sadly it seems that this latest string of losses is set to continue and will probably derail the deployment this time around. So the goal for the present is to keep the finger on the pulse whilst my other hand hovers over the "panic button".

Quite true, and really nothing new to those, like yourself, skilled in the utilisation of leveraged instruments.

Thanks for your kind advice GB. The present situation might never have arisen if I had truly been doing well. But, just the same, it is very kind of you to interpret things that way.

Anyhow, as will probably already be quite apparent, one of my strategies appears to have encountered its personal...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj_9CiNkkn4

At this rate I am wondering whether this account will even survive to see NFP, let alone the US presidential election!

Account value 130%ish.

Triple damn it!!!

And what better way to end a torrid week than with a...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NRUc5nGgY-U

By the weekend, the account value was crunched down to 60%ish.

Quadruple damn it!!!!

OmegaTrader · 7 November 2016

cynic said:
. So, in effect, this exercise is now being performed with 600 and then some dollars.

..........

I implemented a strategy that aggressively incremented trade sizes subsequent to successes. It worked wonders during the winning streaks, but, naturally, set things up for a very heavy smackdown whenever the tide abruptly turned.

..................

My earlier estimation of the duration of the streaks (both winning and losing) proved short of the mark, and the initial exercise was derailed by a heavy drawdown that necessitated additional funds or abandonment of the stategy.

haha good luck with $600 and then some

If you increase positional size relevant to capital eg fixed fractional management on both the upside and downside....

Then as long you have positive edge/return etc then that shouldn't the problem.

It sounds like your estimation of volaitlity/risk was too low and therefore postition sizing was too high

Which then led to your ruin

I think

Just speculating

cynic · 8 November 2016

OmegaTrader said:
haha good luck with $600 and then some

If you increase positional size relevant to capital eg fixed fractional management on both the upside and downside....

Then as long you have positive edge/return etc then that shouldn't the problem.

It sounds like your estimation of volaitlity/risk was too low and therefore postition sizing was too high

Which then led to your ruin

I think

Just speculating

There is certainly a lot to be said for the merits of FFP. However, the more conservative approaches would surely make for a rather monotonous and uninteresting excursion given the modest sum involved.

Anyhow, as those following this thread will be aware, by the close of last week, "Take 2" was teetering on the brink of disaster. And then a most surprising thing happened over the weekend. The cynic suddenly, and unexpectedly, found gratitude for...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XLf7Hug4p-w...actions of the FBI!

Certainly a novel experience for the cynic. Who would've thunk it?!

Needless to say, the monday gap was most favourable, and although the account value is still a little shy of its historical high, this has undoubtedly been the most profitable day thus far.

Account value currently 265%ish.

Yeee haaa and yippeee kai ayyy!

OmegaTrader · 8 November 2016

cynic said:
There is certainly a lot to be said for the merits of FFP. However, the more conservative approaches would surely make for a rather monotonous and uninteresting excursion given the modest sum involved.

Anyhow, as those following this thread will be aware, by the close of last week, "Take 2" was teetering on the brink of disaster. And then a most surprising thing happened over the weekend. The cynic suddenly, and unexpectedly, found gratitude for...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XLf7Hug4p-w...actions of the FBI!

Certainly a novel experience for the cynic. Who would've thunk it?!

Needless to say, the monday gap was most favourable, and although the account value is still a little shy of its historical high, this has undoubtedly been the most profitable day thus far.

Account value currently 265%ish.

Yeee haaa and yippeee kai ayyy!

ahha my last comments

give me $600 if you don't want it!!

and

hope the money lasts the distance-a wild ride far out

peter2 · 8 November 2016

You left this losing position open over the week-end before the US election. Wow, that was desperate.

I'm pleased to see the FBI saved your ****(bottom).

You may consider easing back on the heat and go for the +1000%.

cynic · 10 November 2016

Well the X3 milestone was easily achieved yesterday and even made it onto the daily statement this time around! However, before I could make my delighted posting, boasting of my prowess, some surprising events unfolded.

As mentioned in a previous post:

cynic said:
With CFDs it's typically very easy to change direction, as is the case with those currently offered by CMC. But is that the right question?

To flip or not to flip? That is the question!

When one chooses to flip outside of accordance with one's strategy/plan/method, Ms. Market will often treat that as an open invitation to drive the trader flipping mad!

My preference is to rely on the panic button. You know the big red one boldly marked "Get Me the FTSE outta Here!!!"

However, this time around it's looking like flipping may have saved me a motza! Oh how often the same discipline that reaps the rewards subsequently trashes them!
...

How the cynic wished not to have made the unfortunate decision to deviate from the plan. How different the outcome might have been! Ms. Market did indeed drive the cynic flipping mad, and now the answer to the question "What could possibly go wrong?" is abundantly clear.

Much as I'd like to simply put it down to having been Trumped by Donald, it has been apparent, for at least the past couple of weeks, that there was misalignment between the chosen market and position scaling methodology (in one of the deployments) and the cynic chose to plow on regardless

Ohh ...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sbKqt77P-gs...all my troubles seemed so far away, now it looks as though they're here to stay!

As far as web based platforms and OTC CFDs go, CMC's products greatly exceeded my expectations in that they compare very favourably to a number of the competing industry providers (with whom I have dealt). As such I envisage availing myself of CMC's offerings into the foreseeable future.

On a closing note, I'd just like to offer a heartfelt thankyou to all parties involved in the promotion, and to all forum members who took enough interest to read and/or participate in this thread.

ThingyMajiggy · 10 November 2016

cynic said:
Well the X3 milestone was easily achieved yesterday and even made it onto the daily statement this time around! However, before I could make my delighted posting, boasting of my prowess, some surprising events unfolded.

As mentioned in a previous post:

How the cynic wished not to have made the unfortunate decision to deviate from the plan. How different the outcome might have been! Ms. Market did indeed drive the cynic flipping mad, and now the answer to the question "What could possibly go wrong?" is abundantly clear.

Much as I'd like to simply put it down to having been Trumped by Donald, it has been apparent, for at least the past couple of weeks, that there was misalignment between the chosen market and position scaling methodology (in one of the deployments) and the cynic chose to plow on regardless

Ohh ...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sbKqt77P-gs...all my troubles seemed so far away, now it looks as though they're here to stay!

As far as web based platforms and OTC CFDs go, CMC's products greatly exceeded my expectations in that they compare very favourably to a number of the competing industry providers (with whom I have dealt). As such I envisage availing myself of CMC's offerings into the foreseeable future.

On a closing note, I'd just like to offer a heartfelt thankyou to all parties involved in the promotion, and to all forum members who took enough interest to read and/or participate in this thread.

So in English, the election wiped you out yesterday?

cynic · 10 November 2016

ThingyMajiggy said:
So in English, the election wiped you out yesterday?

I wiped myself out yesterday! The election simply presented me with an excuse.

ThingyMajiggy · 10 November 2016

cynic said:
I wiped myself out yesterday! The election simply presented me with an excuse.

Bugger, well put! Got lucky myself, was so much like Brexit all over again!

Gringotts Bank · 20 November 2016

cynic said:
I wiped myself out yesterday! The election simply presented me with an excuse.

That sucks after all that work. But what did you learn?

Was it a technical trading error? Lapse in discipline or concentration? Self-sabotage? Negativity from self or others that you bought into? The pressure of posting publicly? Something else?

cynic · 20 November 2016

Gringotts Bank said:
That sucks after all that work. But what did you learn?

Was it a technical trading error? Lapse in discipline or concentration? Self-sabotage? Negativity from self or others that you bought into? The pressure of posting publicly? Something else?

I am tempted to say all of the above.

The error occurred when I deployed a third strategy which was designed to aggressively scale position sizes during winning streaks. This error was compounded by the fact that I chose not to remedy it after recognising it during the second heavy drawdown. A third error was made on that fateful day when my positions went heavily against me and my assessment of the situation was to depart from the strategy by reversing direction until such time as the market regained its composure. Drawing from past experience, this response could have reasonably been expected to work much of the time when dealing with such extreme movements. Sometimes one does have to be quite nimble with their performance. However, if one just happens to reverse too close to the extreme low, and shortly before a very sharp and solid reversal (as I did) then the results can be quite disastrous. And that pretty sums up it up!

There is no question that publicly posting one's progress does weigh on the mind of those possessed of some degree of vanity , so this was undoubtedly a contributing factor.

The CFD, the Cynic and the 600 dollars - What could possibly go wrong?

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