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The bet: Will these average 12% return including dividends in 1 year?

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Realist

Realist

Billie Jean is not my lover
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A bet between Tech/a and myself, a case of beer whether I can hold all of the below until Oct 16th 2007, and make 12% including dividends.

Who wants to bet on who?

My current portfolio, and the starting prices are as follows:

The ASX All Ords closed at 5276.40 (near all time high)

BHP 27.35
BSL 6.71
CAQ 0.205
CBA 47.00
CBH 0.53
CQT 0.49
DRT 1.675
EVE 0.10
FBU 8.15
FDL 0.015
FGL 6.46
FUN 1.63
HCY 0.015
IAG 5.68
JPR 0.082
MRE 5.31
MTN 0.76
PMH 0.43
PRG 4.43
RIN 14.53
RIO 75.29
USA 0.20
WDC 18.75
WDCNB 18.48
 
Re: The bet : Will these average 12% return including dividends in 1 year?

Realist said:
..., a case of beer whether I can hold all of the below until Oct 16th 2007, and make 12% including dividends.
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Realist- wont you have to add a "weighting factor" to each ? - something which reflects how many of each you have, needn't be the correct numbers - but roughly the right ratios. You agree? (unless of course you say you have approx same total value of each (say $1000)(?) - total $24K?
 
Sent you a private mail.
This is it below.
12% good god Ill bet you can do it..

Anyway sure we can come to an un complicated bit of interest.

Hahaha your actually a good sport!!

Tell you what.
The portfolio being traded on Reefcap (techtrader) is at its all time equity high.So how about my portfolio out trades yours for a carton.
So both on an even keel.
The point I'm trying to make is that even with long term holds (Which I trade most $$s in) if traded will return more than those traded in a discretionary manner using fundamentals.

See I wouldnt fix trades for a year as they may well need to be exited as would possibly some of yours.MRE for example---which I actually hold unfortunately not as early as yourself.

Still lets not make it complicated---let me know your thoughts.
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Hindsite youd have to presume equal position sizing.

Current portfolio
 

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tech/a said:
Hindsite youd have to presume equal position sizing.
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Yep equal position.

Otherwise I'd cheat. :D

For instance I'd underweight FGL, MRE, FBU, CBA, and IAG I bought them alot cheaper and would not buy at today's prices...

So 12% is fair considering the ASX is near an all time high and I did not pick the stocks on today's prices I picked most ages ago.
 
I would like to offer my services to "hold" the said carton in "safe" storage until the competition has run its course ............... Of course there will be a small holding fee of say, one stubbie per day ........... now how long did you want the competiton to run?? :)
 
No Im trading them and you can follow on Reefcap.
To be fair you can trade yours as well.
See if you can out perform a mechanical system.
From what I see you think that should be a piece of cake!
Why not start a spread sheet like mine and just update each week.
I post all new trades on Reef when they are taken as with all sells.
Its transparent.

By the way Realist and I seem to have taken this on in the spirit of fun so lets keep it that way.
 
All the best to both of you. It will be fascinating to watch. May we assume monthly updates???

Good on you both for the spirit in which you're obviously engaging in this "competition".

Julia
 
tech/a said:
By the way Realist and I seem to have taken this on in the spirit of fun so lets keep it that way.
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You've both nailed your colours to the wall - and All Ords also recorded I notice. Good idea to add that imho.

Put it down to the voice of inexperience. Rather than bet on 12%, wouldn't you be better to bet that you did say 6% better than the All Ords?. I mean, you have to be honest and admit that it's crystal ball stuff to know where that will go surely (and dont call me Shirley). Seriously Up? Seriously Down? Sideways? If there's some trouble in the world - or the economy goes belly up etc. China runs out of puff. Ahhh to hell with it - you blokes have your fun - but imho there's a fair share of "imponderables" - (system or no system). :2twocents

PS good luck to both of you - and to everyone here - and especially to me ;)
 
Julia said:
All the best to both of you. It will be fascinating to watch. May we assume monthly updates???

Good on you both for the spirit in which you're obviously engaging in this "competition".

Julia
Click to expand...

Yeah the spirit is great, but do I get to hold the carton??? :bier: Gotta get our priorities right :D
 
tech/a said:
No Im trading them and you can follow on Reefcap.
To be fair you can trade yours as well.
See if you can out perform a mechanical system.
From what I see you think that should be a piece of cake!
Why not start a spread sheet like mine and just update each week.
I post all new trades on Reef when they are taken as with all sells.
Its transparent.

By the way Realist and I seem to have taken this on in the spirit of fun so lets keep it that way.
Click to expand...

Fine, but please post your trades here as well if you can remember, so we can all follow - most don't have access to Reefcap.

I'll hold all of my shares for 1 year. No trading whatsoever by me. And that means I pay no tax whatsoever.

I also would like free options included if they are issued. JPR, USA etc...

And assume I reinvest all dividends, as I always do...
 
Realist said:
Fine, but please post your trades here as well if you can remember, so we can all follow - most don't have access to Reefcap.

I'll hold all of my shares for 1 year. No trading whatsoever by me. And that means I pay no tax whatsoever.

I also would like free options included if they are issued. JPR, USA etc...

And assume I reinvest all dividends, as I always do...
Click to expand...


Realist
12% isnt that hard - yet u seem to already be nervous, what happened to all that confidence u were oozing?
U seem to have a solid portfolio - but what happened to ZFX?
I see CBH and EVE as the dark horses - potential multibaggers there IMO
 
nizar said:
Realist
12% isnt that hard - yet u seem to already be nervous, what happened to all that confidence u were oozing?
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Depends doesn't it? 12% each year after all expenses and taxes are taken into account is a rather good result. It'd turn $100K into $1M in 20 years...

Remember I get FGL, MRE etc. at today's prices - I bought them when they were much cheaper. They are now not undervalued, and the ASX is near an all time high. I believe 12% is a good result considering I have to use todays prices.

U seem to have a solid portfolio - but what happened to ZFX?
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Never bought it, was talking about it, pondering, waiting, worried about mine life, try to get in on a dip, bahhhhh I missed it!! :banghead:

I see CBH and EVE as the dark horses - potential multibaggers there IMO
Click to expand...

Yeah but CQT may just fly tomorrow.
USA will fly Wednesday.
PMH will fly sometime. (I hope)

JPR and FDL are cheap duds... with potential to at least get back to where they were 3 months ago.

Most of the others pay good dividends and shouldn't let me down.

The best way to get 12% return on average is to avoid losses, collect some dividends and have a couple of multibaggers.
 
Stop whinging Realist.
My portfolio is very mature----some have been held for years.

Dont worry about percentages,which portfolio will return best results over the next 12 mths.
"Techtrader" or "Fundamental Realism"

Both have to trade or hold the same market.

Realist you must alter your veiws on TAX.
If you wish to use your money at sometime youll have to take the tax hit.
What you save is minimal.
Better to tack the tax today re invest it in other opportunities and pay the tax in 12 or more months.
 
tech/a said:
Both have to trade or hold the same market.

Realist you must alter your veiws on TAX.
If you wish to use your money at sometime youll have to take the tax hit.
What you save is minimal.
Click to expand...

If you trade, and I hold, I suspect you will may slightly before tax, and I'll win after tax as I pay none.

50% tax saving is not minimal, 50% is crippling!

Tax is not a game, people move to Singapore or Bermuda purely for tax reasons, it needs to be reduced at all costs.
 
So you never realise profit?
So you can never use it.
You avoid tax but never get 75 or 50% of your winnings.

Remind me never to seek investment advice from you!
 
I let what I theoretically owe in tax compound for me not for the government. :D
 
Your logic is far from "Vulcan".

At some point you have to pay tax to take your profit whatever that is and whenever that maybe.
Other than waiting 12 mths your saving zero.
Particularly if your holding decreases in value after the 12 mth holding period.

Could I suggest "An introduction to Accountancy practices 101"

But hey if delusion is your reality then delude on.
 
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