The Abbott Government

sydboy007 · 3 June 2015

Further proof that Hockey is drinking some serious koolaid

I’m not going to give commentary on commentary. We’ve had a terrific set of numbers that came out today and those numbers have proven that there are some clowns out there that are talking about recession and dark clouds on the horizon. There have been proven to be looking foolish, those people, and we should be focussing on what is before us which is raw data that says the Australian economy is in the last quarter one of the fastest growing economies in the developed world. How good is that?

I suppose if you ignore:

Lowest wage growth in decades
Real NDI down 1.6% over the year
ToT down 11.4% over the year
real GDP per hour worked fell by 0.8% over the March quarter and was up just 0.2% over the year, suggesting labour productivity growth has stalled
Households savings rate falling from 9.6% to 8.3% indicating we're gearing up more and more.
Capex forecast to be down 24% next FY, blowing a $30B hole in Govt forecasts.

Then yes, it's all sunshine and lollipops with ponycorn rides for all.

Knobby22 · 3 June 2015

He's got to at least try to talk it up Syd.
If he starts looking worried in the media, the recession will be self fulfilling.
Wish he had a clue though.

trainspotter · 3 June 2015

sydboy007 said:
Then yes, it's all sunshine and lollipops with ponycorn rides for all.

What is a ponycorn ride? Is that like a cheap version of a unicorn ride?

sydboy007 · 3 June 2015

Oh my. You know that instant 20K small business write off the Government has been talking about 24/7 since the budget was released. Yes yes, I saw the eye rolls.

Well Labor today asked for a vote to approve the legislation, but wait for it, the Abbott Govt voted against it. I mean, they've been complaining about Labor blocking stuff, but when there's some bipartisan support for a rort, the Govt can't bring itself to vote for it.

"What we saw from the opposition this morning was yet another childish stunt from the Labor Party, an attempt by the Labor Party to deny 11 Labor members and 31 Coalition members the right to speak on this bill and ensure that they were able to demonstrate their support for the small businesses of Australia," Mr Abbott said.

WTF. Why do you need to talk about it any more? Just get it voted on, signed and delivered. I mean isn't that what Govt is about, actually doing rather than talking. Of what benefit is there to allowing those 42 members of parliament to have more of a gabfest on something you claim will help save the economy from the mining CAPEX cliff?

SirRumpole · 3 June 2015

Knobby22 said:
He's got to at least try to talk it up Syd.
If he starts looking worried in the media, the recession will be self fulfilling.
Wish he had a clue though.

About time Turnbull got the Treasury, and Hockey was relegated to Veterans Affairs where he can do less damage.

drsmith · 3 June 2015

sydboy007 said:
Oh my. You know that instant 20K small business write off the Government has been talking about 24/7 since the budget was released. Yes yes, I saw the eye rolls.

Well Labor today asked for a vote to approve the legislation, but wait for it, the Abbott Govt voted against it. I mean, they've been complaining about Labor blocking stuff, but when there's some bipartisan support for a rort, the Govt can't bring itself to vote for it.

"What we saw from the opposition this morning was yet another childish stunt from the Labor Party, an attempt by the Labor Party to deny 11 Labor members and 31 Coalition members the right to speak on this bill and ensure that they were able to demonstrate their support for the small businesses of Australia," Mr Abbott said.

WTF. Why do you need to talk about it any more? Just get it voted on, signed and delivered. I mean isn't that what Govt is about, actually doing rather than talking. Of what benefit is there to allowing those 42 members of parliament to have more of a gabfest on something you claim will help save the economy from the mining CAPEX cliff?

What I find interesting is that while the government still struggles with the economic narrative and cabinet leaks, the opposition is reduced to silly publicity stunts.

sptrawler · 3 June 2015

The problem is they are both playing populist politics, to a very sad media audience. supported by very poor journalism.

God help us.IMO

Another problem we have,IMO, is the politicians from all walks of life, have their nosed stuffed so hard into the trough nothing will be done about NG.

Logique · 3 June 2015

I'd be shocked if Julie Bishop is the Cabinet leaker.

Other candidates more likely for mine.

SirRumpole · 3 June 2015

drsmith said:
What I find interesting is that while the government still struggles with the economic narrative and cabinet leaks, the opposition is reduced to silly publicity stunts.

Well, I agree with Syd. If everyone agrees with this Bill (the legislation not Shorten), just do it.

There is too much hot air in Canberra as it is. Question Time is a joke. The Libs just want to throw more dirt at Labor by getting as many windbags as they can to pointscore. Now that's a stunt.

banco · 3 June 2015

Logique said:
I'd be shocked if Julie Bishop is the Cabinet leaker.

Other candidates more likely for mine.

She's my guess as it's clear from other columns from the same journalist that she's one of his main sources.

drsmith · 3 June 2015

SirRumpole said:
Well, I agree with Syd. If everyone agrees with this Bill (the legislation not Shorten), just do it.

There is too much hot air in Canberra as it is. Question Time is a joke. The Libs just want to throw more dirt at Labor by getting as many windbags as they can to pointscore. Now that's a stunt.

Some of those windbags as you call them were to be from Labor.

It's going to pass in this session regardless and when it does, Labor will be left just looking silly. That's unless they do something really stupid in which case, they will look much worse.

trainspotter · 3 June 2015

This can't be right can it? If smokin' Joe reckons it is then it is good enough for me ...

'This growth is broad-based,' Mr Hockey told reporters in Canberra.

'Growth in exports, household spending, services and new dwellings confirms that the government's economic plan is working.'

Mr Hockey noted the growth occurred before the May budget, which was designed to stimulate the small business sector through tax breaks.

0.9 per cent figure makes Australia one of the fastest growing economies in the developed world and faster than any of the G7 countries for the quarter.

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-...onomy-is-broadening.html#sthash.LhkrtmVj.dpuf

noco · 4 June 2015

trainspotter said:
This can't be right can it? If smokin' Joe reckons it is then it is good enough for me ...

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-...onomy-is-broadening.html#sthash.LhkrtmVj.dpuf

But it will not be good news for the lefties on ASF......They will say it just cannot be right....The Liberals could not possibly have done it so quickly....The credit has to go to Labor after all the Liberals have only been in for 21 months.

sydboy007 · 4 June 2015

noco said:
But it will not be good news for the lefties on ASF......They will say it just cannot be right....The Liberals could not possibly have done it so quickly....The credit has to go to Labor after all the Liberals have only been in for 21 months.

I suppose if you ignore:

Lowest wage growth in decades
Real NDI down 1.6% over the year
ToT down 11.4% over the year - still 25% above the average for the last 20ish years so plenty more falls to come.
real GDP per hour worked fell by 0.8% over the March quarter and was up just 0.2% over the year, suggesting labour productivity growth has stalled. Competitiveness is slowing to going backwards again.
Households savings rate falling from 9.6% to 8.3% indicating we're gearing up more and more. Maybe we'll get back to Howard Govt levels of savings
Capex forecast to be down 24% next FY, blowing a $30B hole in Govt forecasts.
Households with debt at 160% of GDP - not much gearing left in the tank.

Then yes, it's all sunshine and lollipops with ponycorn rides for all.

GDP is a poor measurement. Real NDI is what is in the pockets of consumers, and effectively what drives spending and savings in the economy.

How much further do we need to see the savings rate fall before you'll start to wise up the growth is on borrowed time.

Even if we don't get the technical 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, which is difficult when you pump up population growth through immigration, the voters are going to feel like it's a recession because they can see their wages are not keeping up with the cost of living.

Better Hockey started to be honest with Australians so they understand some of the hard choices that are going to be necessary over the next few years.

IFocus · 4 June 2015

drsmith said:
What I find interesting is that while the government still struggles with the economic narrative and cabinet leaks, the opposition is reduced to silly publicity stunts.

Sorry but the stunt was Abbotts and Billsons calling Labor to bring it on and not stand in the way so Labor did.

Abbotts quote here

Abbott said on Monday that it was “important that these budget measures to help small business get through the parliament as quickly as possible”.

“Some small businesses are reluctant to invest until the measure has passed the parliament,” he said on Monday. “I say to the leader of the opposition, let us not let politics get in the way of economics. Let us not let self-interest get in the way of national interest. Let us pass this bill straight away.”

sydboy007 · 4 June 2015

noco said:
But it will not be good news for the lefties on ASF......They will say it just cannot be right....The Liberals could not possibly have done it so quickly....The credit has to go to Labor after all the Liberals have only been in for 21 months.

http://www.afr.com/news/economy/mon...s-australians-to-raid-savings-20150603-ghfus8

“Australia’s living standards are falling on a sustained basis for the first time in 50 years – this is not a short-term trend,” said Andrew Charlton, co-founder of economic advisory firm AlphaBeta and an ex-adviser to former prime minister Kevin Rudd.

The figures confirmed that real GDP growth has lagged below the long-run average for the past 11 quarters and all but three of the past 27 quarters – the longest run in data going back more than half a century, according to Dr Charlton.
…
Dr Charlton – a former Rhodes Scholar and Boston Consulting Group analyst – said the data showed low interest rates and government spending were adding to “ominous financial bubbles” in houses and stocks and a potentially “spiralling debt burden”.

He cautioned that Treasury and the Reserve Bank were making a mistake by assuming the income shock would be a short-run event that could be managed away. “The real answer has to be a focus on lifting the long-term drivers of growth through economic reform and other structural policies,” he said.

Pretending there is no problem means those required reforms are not on the agenda

You can judge the strength of the economy in many ways. 3 of the best measures are

The three measures chosen are:

National Disposable Income (NDI), which is “considered a good measure of progress for living standards because it is an indicator of Australians’ capacity to purchase goods and services for consumption” (see ABS explanation here -http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/1370.0main+features402013 ).
Gross national expenditure (GNE), which is “the total expenditure within a given period by Australian residents on final goods and services (i.e. excluding goods and services used up during the period in the process of production). It is equivalent to gross domestic product plus imports of goods and services less exports of goods and services”.
Domestic final demand (DFD), which is the sum of “government final consumption expenditure, household final consumption expenditure, private gross fixed capital formation and the gross fixed capital formation of public corporations and general government”.

Let’s consider per capita NDI. This measure fell by 0.3% in the March quarter in trend terms, and has fallen by 3.6% since December 2011, suggesting falling living standards

The divergence between per capita NDI and Real GDP is now over 6%.

An examination of the national accounts data also shows that real per capita NDI since the onset of the GFC has grown far more slowly than at the same time after the early-1990s recession – 1.4% total growth since June 2008 versus 8.4% growth at the same point after the early-1990s recession.

If you compare GDP growth since the GFC against the 70s, 80s, 90s recession you'll realise just how anaemic growth has been.

27 quarters after the onset of the GFC (June 2008), Real GDP per capita has only risen by 5.0%. The trends also are likely to widen the gaps further as the once-in-a-century mining investment boom unwinds over coming years, offset only partly by rising export volumes.

That, combined with falling per capita income, is why it feels like a recession already.

Without meaningful strucutral reforms this income recession is only going to get worse. We're kicking the can down the road again and again and eventually we're going to have to take some exceedingly bitter medicine because of poor political leadership from both the major parties.

SirRumpole · 4 June 2015

Let’s consider per capita NDI. This measure fell by 0.3% in the March quarter in trend terms, and has fallen by 3.6% since December 2011, suggesting falling living standards

With the potential to cause a burst of the housing bubble as people decide they cannot afford to buy a house and stop looking.

Lets see what that does to the growth figures.

drsmith · 4 June 2015

IFocus said:
Sorry but the stunt was Abbotts and Billsons calling Labor to bring it on and not stand in the way so Labor did.

Abbotts quote here

This session of parliament was Tony Abbott's context.

SirRumpole · 4 June 2015

The electorate is increasingly distrusting the Abbott government on housing prices

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-l...t-on-rising-house-prices-20150602-ghev77.html

noco · 4 June 2015

sydboy007 said:
I suppose if you ignore:

Lowest wage growth in decades

Real NDI down 1.6% over the year

ToT down 11.4% over the year - still 25% above the average for the last 20ish years so plenty more falls to come.

real GDP per hour worked fell by 0.8% over the March quarter and was up just 0.2% over the year, suggesting labour productivity growth has stalled. Competitiveness is slowing to going backwards again.

Households savings rate falling from 9.6% to 8.3% indicating we're gearing up more and more. Maybe we'll get back to Howard Govt levels of savings

Capex forecast to be down 24% next FY, blowing a $30B hole in Govt forecasts.

Households with debt at 160% of GDP - not much gearing left in the tank.

Then yes, it's all sunshine and lollipops with ponycorn rides for all.

GDP is a poor measurement. Real NDI is what is in the pockets of consumers, and effectively what drives spending and savings in the economy.

How much further do we need to see the savings rate fall before you'll start to wise up the growth is on borrowed time.

Even if we don't get the technical 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, which is difficult when you pump up population growth through immigration, the voters are going to feel like it's a recession because they can see their wages are not keeping up with the cost of living.

Better Hockey started to be honest with Australians so they understand some of the hard choices that are going to be necessary over the next few years.

Sydboy I would have been most disappointed if you had not come back with some adverse comment.

Was Swannie honest with Australians?...Was Gillard honest with Australians?...Don't shout your answer too loud....Was Combet honest with Australians?

You have to admit this latest news is a large improvement on the 2007/2013 Labor era.

The Abbott Government

sydboy007

Knobby22

Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

trainspotter

sydboy007

SirRumpole

drsmith

sptrawler

Logique

Investor

SirRumpole

banco

drsmith

trainspotter

noco

sydboy007

IFocus

You are arguing with a Galah

sydboy007

SirRumpole

drsmith

SirRumpole

noco

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