T/A lost the plot

[coyotte]

The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!

Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.

That's one of the drawbacks of hanging around forums --- you can get sucked in and before you know it, your own trading begins to suffer.

Comes back to one of the golden rules of trading "hold your own counsel".

another lesson
Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Coyotte,

TA is a broad subject with much to offer that is quite daunting to say the least. If market participants can free their minds there is much to work with though.

Prediction is difficult.
How is the pitchfork going?

 

[tech/a]

The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!

Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.

That's one of the drawbacks of hanging around forums --- you can get sucked in and before you know it, your own trading begins to suffer.

Comes back to one of the golden rules of trading "hold your own counsel".

another lesson
Cheers

Sorry to hear that Coyotte.
Comes with experience.

 

[constable]

The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!

Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.

That's one of the drawbacks of hanging around forums --- you can get sucked in and before you know it, your own trading begins to suffer.

Comes back to one of the golden rules of trading "hold your own counsel".

another lesson
Cheers

Well said! IMO too much scaremongering by too many panic merchants!!

 

[MichaelD]

Well said, Coyotte (and in fewer words than I would have, too).

It ain't the analysis that makes the money. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that technicians that make money (myself included) do it DESPITE our analysis.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!

Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.

That's one of the drawbacks of hanging around forums --- you can get sucked in and before you know it, your own trading begins to suffer.

Comes back to one of the golden rules of trading "hold your own counsel".

another lesson
Cheers

Coyotte,

That is hitting the nail on the head! It was really becoming depressing reading all the dooms day posts since the sell off and from what I see now it does not look that bad!

Great point about reading and listening to the market and not trying to tell it what to do!

 

[the barry]

Sorry for my ignorance, but what is t/a???

 

[tech/a]

Its a Duck.

And I disagree with the lot of you.(Other than Snake)

 

[theasxgorilla]

The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!

Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.

That's one of the drawbacks of hanging around forums --- you can get sucked in and before you know it, your own trading begins to suffer.

Comes back to one of the golden rules of trading "hold your own counsel".

another lesson
Cheers

Coyotte I think you could be right...but I need a few more weeks to be sure

 

[ducati916]

Isn't that the point of technical analysis, to identify *high probability trades*
Are you trying to tell me now that t/a is all nonsense?

jog on
d998

 

[tech/a]

Well what I see is a sad lack of knowledge in the application of Technical Analysis.

Seems that most here have no problems with ANY form of analysis when the market is strongly trending. Soon as it stops trending and enters a corrective phase---all of a sudden everyone is confused or believes analysis is confused or confusing. Well there are many who arent confused or of the opinion that technical analysis has lost the plot.

If you think its all gone haywire then as this market does turn from trending to flat or bearish---you'll be a lamb to the slaughter.

Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.

This is a fault of the trader NOT the analysis.

That's one of the drawbacks of hanging around forums --- you can get sucked in and before you know it, your own trading begins to suffer.

Comes back to one of the golden rules of trading "hold your own counsel".

Again the fault of the trader. Inability to have confidence in their own analysis---lack of discipline,lack of plan,lack of ability to accept views without influencing their opinion or plan.

Analysis is simply collation of information available at the time and applied in the timeframe you are trading/analysing.The same analysis could well be applied differently in different timeframes!

What Ive seen is analysis which presents "What ifs"---thats all you can ask analysis to do!

Those who expect analysis to be definative,exact and applicable to ALL timeframes---just dont understand the application of analysis

but I need a few more weeks to be sure

Either your analysis tells you that it will take a few weeks to verify the analysis---or---you've given up and have no idea. No offence just observation of statement.

that is hitting the nail on the head! it was really becoming depressing reading all the dooms day posts since the sell off and from what i see now it does not look that bad!

Again a bullish bias.You cant tell me that the market action is telling you at this point that all is back to status quo? Again your looking at the analysis as DEFINATIVE when its simply "What if" this COULD )according to the AVAILABLE analysis AT THE TIME ) occur

Great point about reading and listening to the market and not trying to tell it what to do!

Ive seen absolutely no evidence of this in ANY analysis presented. The above statement is the interpretation of those looking at the analysis.The analysis is just presented in its form.

There is a SERIOUS lack of ability in Application,understanding of structure/application in Timeframes,prove/disprove in the application of analysis.

You'll find the fault in the practitioner NOT the analysis.

 

[Atomic5]

I had already posted on another thread that I thought the likelihood of a rally until late April was a possibility, but for political and other reasons. I am not a tecnical trader so I didnt call any top.

Then seeing those assumptions somewhat translated or concorded by a technical view/chart analysis by Tech/A was really interesting. I have since read other historical-data analysts and brokers express a similar point of view using varied other reasons to support the idea.

Seeing as the ASX is at 5,919.20 today, the new top estimate may be in fact be realisable. Make up your own minds on this though, and the chart unfortunately can't be read to tell us when.

Even if you don't use charts, subconsciously you process your interpretations of energy, momentum and market pysychology and you are equally at risk from the elements of chaos that the charts cannot predict, such as: a Greenspan statement, the release of data, a rate rise, strikes, other political events, war, natural disaster, or even the non-discovery of resources after drilling (watchout WMT ) etc.

With Forums though, like most people I just have to watch out that it is not merely wishful thinking, or peer brainwashing.

.... And to the nutter that linked a .jpg of a womans naked bottom to the desktop link of my graphics programme .... ?!

 

[theasxgorilla]

Well what I see is a sad lack of knowledge in the application of Technical Analysis.

You could be right...yet the undertone of Coyottes post is psychology.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Then seeing those assumptions somewhat translated or concorded by a technical view/chart analysis by Tech/A was really interesting. I have since read other historical-data analysts and brokers express a similar point of view using varied other reasons to support the idea.

More information is not always better and the market does not respond to a concensus of opinion it responds to buy, sell, what price, how much. It is this activity that T/A attempts to observe and measure. Elliott Wave counting is unique, it attempts to look forward. I've aluded to it before and I'll alude to it again: because of this promise, and because of the way a practioner (even a half-baked one) wields this technique, it can plav havoc with an observers psychology, particularly if you have a limited understanding.

Key question for an Elliott Wave practitioner: "so, based on this analysis, what trades are you currently making?".

This should tell you all you need to know to get your psychology back on an even keel.

 

[Atomic5]

Gorilla I think you know I trust the market like I trust the USA - I don't, not at all.

 

[tech/a]

Key question for an Elliott Wave practitioner: "so, based on this analysis, what trades are you currently making?".

Unless your trading the ASX 200 none based upon THIS analysis.

Each stock would be taken on its individual analysis.
However currently based on the analysis you have,that this is a corrective phase until proven otherwise---you'd be looking for the best opportunity short setups.
ABS maybe of interest.---as an example.

 

[Dr Doom]

Certainly a lot of flip flopping going on, some saying we won't see 6000 for a long time, then others hinting that maybe a new high maybe in sight, then others advise to short in the meantime. If only the charts could tell me what to do

 

[Kauri]

More information is not always better and the market does not respond to a concensus of opinion it responds to buy, sell, what price, how much. It is this activity that T/A attempts to observe and measure. Elliott Wave counting is unique, it attempts to look forward. I've aluded to it before and I'll alude to it again: because of this promise, and because of the way a practioner (even a half-baked one) wields this technique, it can plav havoc with an observers psychology, particularly if you have a limited understanding.

Key question for an Elliott Wave practitioner: "so, based on this analysis, what trades are you currently making?".

This should tell you all you need to know to get your psychology back on an even keel.

All analysis attempts to look forward, how many people quote a 200 day MA and say that the price will rebound from it, or Stochs are oversold or RSI is oversold, and the price will correct from these levels, how many use patterns like flags or triangles to predict the price will move in a certain direction, how many use fundementals to say that a company is undervalued and hence a buy as the price will move to more realistic levels?? I don't think I have met anyone who invests/trades on the markets who buys long unless they believe that the price will move up according to their particular analysis technique.... because of this promise, and because of the way a practioner (even a half-baked one) wields this technique, it can plav havoc with an observers psychology, particularly if you have a limited understanding.
As for E/W, yes it also can be used for prediction, however the best way I have found to incorporate it into my trading is to identify the probable position I am in in the trend. As such the first downleg in the current correction was tradable short, the following correction provided some quick long trades, but the subsequent dip and current rally over the past week could go anywhere (I have three possibilities on my chart but I am sure there are others), my basic E/W gives several current possibile predictions, but for mine not tradable until the trend asserts itself one way or the other. When it will happen, why it will happen, and in which direction will it go, I don't know and don't care, but when it happens I will be ready, until then not being in the market is as much about trading as being in it. Whilst I am waiting there are still good trades available in FX, Gold etc...

 

[doctorj]

I made note of something similar in another thread - users of T/A seem to leave the theory of prove/disprove very quickly in downward markets and look to predict the future.

I believe its a symptom of the type of traders that tend to practice T/A. They are often inexperienced, highly leveraged and/or trading with all their eggs in the one basket. This works great when the market trends strongly with the bulls, but these types of people tend to get disproportionately hurt during a retrace or even when things start to get choppy.

 

[tech/a]

Certainly a lot of flip flopping going on, some saying we won't see 6000 for a long time, then others hinting that maybe a new high maybe in sight, then others advise to short in the meantime. If only the charts could tell me what to do

They do.
All you need to know is how you apply it.