Maybe you are right there but my experience has told me that you need an edge and that edge needs to be a better than a 50/50 chance. I will admit that a trader that has absolutely no emotion and has a foolproof planwill be able to make a profit with a 50/50 chance. That is not the position with most ASF members and I think it is necessary for someone to post a point of view that is contrary to the facts often presented here. If new traders are led into believing that it is as easy as some suggest then they will be in for a shock and maybe a disaster. The same disaster that many margin borrowers recently experienced. Another aspect of trading promoted by a lot of forum posters that I disagree with.I think what you have, is an inability to consider methods outside of your own experience/expertise.
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Maybe you are right there but my experience has told me that you need an edge and that edge needs to be a better than a 50/50 chance. I will admit that a trader that has absolutely no emotion and has a foolproof planwill be able to make a profit with a 50/50 chance. That is not the position with most ASF members and I think it is necessary for someone to post a point of view that is contrary to the facts often presented here. If new traders are led into believing that it is as easy as some suggest then they will be in for a shock and maybe a disaster. The same disaster that many margin borrowers recently experienced. Another aspect of trading promoted by a lot of forum posters that I disagree with.I think what you have, is an inability to consider methods outside of your own experience/expertise.
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Maybe you are right there but my experience has told me that you need an edge and that edge needs to be a better than a 50/50 chance. I will admit that a trader that has absolutely no emotion and has a foolproof planwill be able to make a profit with a 50/50 chance. That is not the position with most ASF members and I think it is necessary for someone to post a point of view that is contrary to the facts often presented here. If new traders are led into believing that it is as easy as some suggest then they will be in for a shock and maybe a disaster. The same disaster that many margin borrowers recently experienced. Another aspect of trading promoted by a lot of forum posters that I disagree with.
Maybe you are right there but my experience has told me that you need an edge and that edge needs to be a better than a 50/50 chance. I will admit that a trader that has absolutely no emotion and has a foolproof planwill be able to make a profit with a 50/50 chance. That is not the position with most ASF members and I think it is necessary for someone to post a point of view that is contrary to the facts often presented here. If new traders are led into believing that it is as easy as some suggest then they will be in for a shock and maybe a disaster. The same disaster that many margin borrowers recently experienced. Another aspect of trading promoted by a lot of forum posters that I disagree with.
The issue of an edge is that is multi dimensional. You are simply looking at one side of it.
The issue of an edge is that is multi dimensional. You are simply looking at one side of it.
A forum member will not come unstuck if they understand all the dimensions. As I stated earlier, I think there are 3 core area's required.
Start Jan 1, 2008 to todays close....
Maybe I need more of that bling...Wayne?
There you go Nokia, that expectancy {((1 + reward/risk ratio) * win/loss ratio)-1} comes out to 0.71.
There is the edge.
Absolutely.
I have a win % of 70%. I have no stop and my timeframe is generally around 5 years. Market moves up the majority of the time, no? Especially over a 5 year period recently.
Multi dimensional right there. Win % means close to nothing IMHO.
Oh, looks like Wayne already beat me too it, in a few more words!
Absolutely.
I have a win % of 70%. I have no stop and my timeframe is generally around 5 years. Market moves up the majority of the time, no? Especially over a 5 year period recently.
Multi dimensional right there. Win % means close to nothing IMHO.
Oh, looks like Wayne already beat me too it, in a few more words!
lol, note the
I am stating the typical "investor" methods. Showing how a high win % does not mean a thing.
I definately do not trade like that, as shown by numerous real time examples I have stated in the forums.
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