- Joined
- 20 November 2010
- Posts
- 544
- Reactions
- 2
I think if we are discussing Warren buffetts ability as an investor and calling into question how valid his opinions are we need to look at the actual performance of the investments he is making inside berkshire rather than berkshires stock price.
Here is a comparison of Berkshires earnings compared to the sp500.
.........................Change in..............S&P 500............. Difference
.........................per share..............Including.............each year
........................book value ...........Dividends
1998 . . . . . . . 48.3 ................ 28.6 ................... 19.7
1999 . . . . . . . 0.5.......................21.0 .................... (20.5)
2000 . . . . . 6.5.......................(9.1) ......................15.6
2001 . . . . . . (6.2)....................(11.9).......................5.7
2002 . . . . . . 10.0.....................(22.1)......................32.1
2003 . . . . . . 21.0 ....................28.7.......................(7.7)
2004 . . . . . . 10.5 .....................10.9......................(0.4)
2005 . . . . . . 6.4 ...................... 4.9.......................1.5
2006 . . . . . . 18.4.....................15.8....................... 2.6
2007 . . . . . . 11.0..................... 5.5....................... 5.5
2008 . . . . . . (9.6)...................(37.0)......................27.4
2009 . . . . . 19.8.....................26.5 ......................(6.7)
2010 . . . . . 13.0....................15.1.......................(2.1)
Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2010 . . berkshire 20.2% pa........... ps500 9.4% pa
Overall Gain – 1964-2010 . . . . . . Berkishire 490,409%......... sp500 6,262%
Want some interesting facts on Buffett? Pick up a copy or find the article by John M Green in the Fin Review on 21 July. There’s a great start at someone dissecting the last few yrs of the 'god like status' that has been given to him.
As I said before, recent share price and business performance (13yrs in the case of BRKA) is more significant to potential and current investors than its performance 20,30 or 40 years ago.
Berkshire is a mature, long standing business and the market has had plenty of time to "weigh" the value and price of BRKA and bring them into alignment. BRKAs share price performance for the last 13 years is woeful and quoting changes in book value or BRKAs share price 20-40 years ago is of cold comfort to BRKA's investors over the last decade.
. Take the farce of the "lunch" with Buffett. I don’t care about the money going to charity, why not just give it anyway? Hell, Buffett could give 1000 times what was paid and still have 5 or 6 or 7 times that left. So the charity part is just a con to make some feel better.
Yes, I aggree that past performance is no indicator of future performance, and that just because a "safe and sound value approach" has worked in the past does not mean it will work in the future, But there is also no reason to think that it won't.
As I have already stated, the reason I quoted the change in book value is because that is tha acutal return that berkshire is earning on the funds they hold, which has prooved to be a very sound result, even through the the gfc.
This prooves that what he is doing is working, and his advice has some merit.
But I am not trying to sell anyone berkshire shares, nor am I suggesting investing in berkshire is a sure way to riches, just that the underlying principles of berkshire are sound.
As said previously, an avg, investor doesn’t have the money, skills, or resources to investigate the market on a daily basis, and hence rely on these sorts of 'expects' and thus - and to their own detriment - admonish their responsibility to 'respected' commentators and what they have said.
A clever use of phrase meant to spruik Buffett's brand of value investing as "safe and sound", let me add though not safer than bank interest which his company has underperformed against for the last 13 years and counting.
Has Buffett's value investing approach worked well for investors in his company? For the last 13 years no, prior to that yes. Investors invest in a company to make money, not because they admire the soundness of its fundamentals for years with little or no ROI to show for it.
Whatever the ROE on funds over the last decade, the end result for his investors has been dismal and definitely not a "sound result".
Again it matters little to the investor if the "underlying principles are sound" but the company can't produce a result for investors half as good as bank interest for 13 years.
let me add though not safer than bank interest which his company has underperformed against for the last 13 years and counting.
.
Again this discussion is not about the performance of berkshire share price or berkshire share holders. It is about the soundness of warren comments and advice.
Again let me state that warren has greatly outperformed bank interest and the SP500based on the returns he has generated.
So he is good at allcating capital and obviously has alot of skill and knowledge. So his opinions do carry weight.
So even though the share price of berkshire may not have out performed in the short term, it does not mean his principles are not valid and that we can not use some of the lessons in our own portfolios.
1, I don’t care about your god-like faith in Buffett, nor do I care what figures you claim to support your god-like faith you have in him.
2, ITS NOT ABOUT BUFFETT, ITS NOT ABOUT HIM!
3, Why have you not stood up for Alan Kohler? Do you agree that the nonsense of his "report" is just that, self-serving nonsense?
4, Do you agree with the comments about Steve Jobs?
5, Just take the blinkers off - albeit very hard - to forget about Buffett and concentrate on the text and the meaning, not the offence you seem to have conjured up.
6, Ohhh, and no I don’t have a personal belief one way or the other about Buffett, nor has he harmed me. He is a very good example, that’s all, an example. And, and apt one at that.
I have simply provided (as does Green) evidence that the oracle of Omaha has not been producing results for his investors over more than a decade and hence does not currently deserve the continued star status and reverence he gets from the media for his investment performance for his shareholders.
Buffett has an excellent track record applying the value investing principles he learned from Ben Graham and others to selecting quality businesses to purchase.
He is intelligent but not a genius and has been primarily U.S. centric in his investment focus.
Problem is that the media prod Buffett to comment on areas outside of his expertise such as macro economics - he's not, never has been or ever will be qualified to comment on macro economics. He's essentially a business analyst/investor who buys entire businesses that fit his criteria with some (like Sees Candy) being terrific long term performers. His U.S. centric focus though has not been visionary in light of the rise of Asia and the drastic decline in the U.S. economy.
If you had invested in BRKA in Sept 1998 and held until Feb2009 you would have had no capital gain or dividend income over a period of 10.5 years! In fact, since 1998 BRKA is up a modest 40% (+$33,000 on an initial investment of $80k) to date, 13 years.
Let's assume that you would have achieved an average of 5% annually (very conservative estimate) in bank interest on that $80k investment over 13 years. Your profit would then have been +$73k in interest. That's a whopping $40,000 more than the same investment in BRKA over the same period. So just how wonderful is your investment with Warren Buffett and Co (value investor extrordinaire) over more than a decade, half what you would have earned in bank interest.
you need to measure his actual investment returns not his companies share price
Exactly.
The investment returns the business itself makes can be dramatically different from what the share price is doing. The returns the business makes are facts that cannot be changed. The share price is people's general opinions on what the stock is worth and changes constantly.
Buffett has done far more than just investing in "undervalued companies" including such things as:
-merger arbitrage
-corporation action arbitrage
-warrent and convertible hedging
-writing options
-on the run/off the run bond arbitrage
-currency speculation (eg bet against USD)
-metals speculation (eg silver)
Again wrong, read some of the early 2000's annual letters where he explains why he was betting against the US dollar on which he made billions.
In addition to the fact you cherry-picked the 1998 high, you ignore the fact tax is paid on interest while unrealised capital gains are untaxed.
Also, the article you linked to in The Australian also is highly statistically flawed. For example the writer compares BRK performance over the last 8 years against today's ASX top 40 instead of the ASX top 40 as it was 8 year's ago. Did he stop to consider that the ASX top 40 stocks today would by definition be among the top performing stock (ie a biased sample)? It seems you and the author are unaware of the dangers of performing post hoc analysis
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?