prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
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That's the core of the problem yet some people still don't get it ie the problem(s) not fixed, only delayed?
Non Productive Debt!
Yeh but at what point will it all come crashing down? Thats the big question.
Its all well and good to recognice the macro problems (i think most here on ASF do), but one cant invest solely based on the premise, as it may be generations before everything falls in a hole. Its like those that got out after a yr of the commodities boom (or missed out all together), and then sat just watching everything go up, constantly calling for a fall. They were right eventually, but at what opportunity cost?
I dont know the answer myself. Wish i did....
I see the stimulation as cushioning the bad effects which obviously had to happen. By this occurring we did not enter a Depression and in Australia we appear to have pretty much missed out on the recession.
I don't see how mass destruction of the economy helps productivity. We need micro economic reform, something that recent governments have been struggling to provide.
In the rest of the world the property correction has occurred. I agree Australia's property is still overpriced but I envisage it will be a slow correction i.e. sub inflation growth in property for the next 7 years.
Well, can you tell me then how our economy is going to now operate without stimulus.
I see the stimulation as cushioning the bad effects which obviously had to happen. By this occurring we did not enter a Depression and in Australia we appear to have pretty much missed out on the recession.
I don't see how mass destruction of the economy helps productivity. We need micro economic reform, something that recent governments have been struggling to provide.
In the rest of the world the property correction has occurred. I agree Australia's property is still overpriced but I envisage it will be a slow correction i.e. sub inflation growth in property for the next 7 years.
The fundamental psychology hasn't undergone the transition from boom to bust. Most still seem to think of the boom years as normal with a return almost here. Psychology normally changes drastically at true bottoms in the market or economy...
GFC struck.... people dont spend. fear
so stimulus.. government spends for you.
confidence improves... people spend.
Well, can you tell me then how our economy is going to now operate without stimulus. What's the extraction plan? More stimulus?
Cheers
P.S. Good topic WayneL - so much to say and so little time to act
What's the growth rate of this plan?More savings. No more stimulus.
Definately sowing the seeds for a much bigger crisis from all accounts. But, in the mean time ... make hay!Consumerism is the answer. Give the population $900 three times and all is fixed. No wait ... they tried this already. Did it work? Nope. Bigger debt and no clear business plan to trade their way out of negative territory.
It's a bit rich to cast aspersions on the Austrians. They were the ones who foresaw the problems. All the Keynesians and Neo-Monetarists wouldn't accept that there were problems and had the childish temerity to openly scoff the Austrians.
Putting that aside for the moment, Austrian economics is not about mass destruction of the economy, it is about allowing destructive bubbles to deflate and free market based correction of idiotic malinvestment.
The tech bust was a classic example of how it should happen. There was no mass destruction of properly productive elements in the economy.
Unfortunately, this time the underlying bubble happens to involve everyone's most important asset... their house. The malinvestment is not so much the item, rather, the price of the asset and the relative capital resources allocated to it. It's a credit/price bubble that has filtered out into everything else.
It should be allowed to pop.
However there are reasons why governments are so interested in propping this one up and it's to do with demographics unfunded welfare/pension obligations in the near future.
Overinflated assets was the gu'mints (collectively) method of trying to deal with the demographics bomb that is due to start its chain reaction very soon.
The UK Labour government even made the asinine prediction that they'd abolished boom and bust. Such stupidity should be a capital offence.
Shame the Keynesian muppets didn't realise what the Austrians have known for since the economic Garden of Eden. That is, you cannot suspend the business cycle forever and you f~~~ with it at your peril.
Knobby, the "stimulus" (i.e. rob from future generations to prop up failing banks and asset speculators) may work for now. But it is to early to tell the ultimate outcome. A bottle of tequila will cure the DTs... temporarily. Ultimately an addiction, whether to alcohol or credit, has to be cured by some serious therapy.
Consumerism is the answer. Give the population $900 three times and all is fixed. No wait ... they tried this already. Did it work? Nope. Bigger debt and no clear business plan to trade their way out of negative territory.
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