Since the correction is happening now, will May be okay?

[LPA]

Just a question from a beginner. Only started trading after the May drop of '06 so I am a bit skittish about that month

But since most people seem to think that we are looking at a 5-10% correction right now, does that mean that May will be as bad as last year?

Also, as an investor with only about 10k invested, should I be thinking about selling out and buying back in around June/July? The broker costs seem to be substantial enough for me that I should just hold and ignore the markets for a month or two

Thanks for any help, just trying to get my head around these psychological aspects of the market...

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: So if the correction is happening now, does that mean that May will be okay?

Just a question from a beginner. Only started trading after the May drop of '06 so I am a bit skittish about that month

But since most people seem to think that we are looking at a 5-10% correction right now, does that mean that May will be as bad as last year?

Also, as an investor with only about 10k invested, should I be thinking about selling out and buying back in around June/July? The broker costs seem to be substantial enough for me that I should just hold and ignore the markets for a month or two

Thanks for any help, just trying to get my head around these psychological aspects of the market...

It may.....

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: So if the correction is happening now, does that mean that May will be okay?

There is an old adage sell in ...........

 

[bean]

May will be O/K if you have anything left by then. To invest in Gold and Silver

 

[nizar]

Just a question from a beginner. Only started trading after the May drop of '06 so I am a bit skittish about that month

But since most people seem to think that we are looking at a 5-10% correction right now, does that mean that May will be as bad as last year?

Also, as an investor with only about 10k invested, should I be thinking about selling out and buying back in around June/July? The broker costs seem to be substantial enough for me that I should just hold and ignore the markets for a month or two

Thanks for any help, just trying to get my head around these psychological aspects of the market...

Probably.
Last year May-August wasnt a short and sharp correction (different to Oct05 3 weeks then up and away again) rather it was kind of like a bear market for a few months.
Because of this, we didnt have out (what some to think to be traditional) Red October.

 

[tech/a]

There are months in which one should be careful in the Markets.

September
May
December and
July.

Others are

Janurary
Feburary
March
April
June
August
October
and
November.

 

[lesm]

Re: So if the correction is happening now, does that mean that May will be okay?

It may.....

...or it may not

 

[Broadside]

If there is a mini correction now I would think the market will be less vulnerable to a correction in May, yes, that is common sense....but there are no hard and fast rules except that the market rarely displays common sense. I think it will recover fairly quickly but there could be a much bigger, uglier correction a few more months down the track.

 

[Out Too Soon]

If the correction isn't nasty enough now then May will probably be terrible, it's totally unnecasary of cause but because enough "experts" have convinced each other that we're due for a correction then it's happening, completely self perpetuating all we needed was a trigger- Shanghai.

10K is a good amount to start with & learn, that's what I did, if I started with 100k I'd be too scared of losing it.

 

[MichaelD]

Prediction of the markets is best left to analysts who get paid for their analysis, not by their trading.

 

[mmmmining]

Maybe Mr Market brings the correction forward by two months. Officially starts in March, and it might end in May.

I believe Mr Market will be very tired to have quick two....

 

[bean]

I have daily data for Dow from 1895 - I have a program where Dow and NASDAQ have a range of +317 to -317. As of today both are -227 and falling rapidly. Monday has to be 'up'.

 

[insider]

There are months in which one should be careful in the Markets.

September
May
December and
July.

Why are these months so bad?

 

[numbercruncher]

This whole year looks bad ......

The US is slipping into a recession led by its tumbling realestate market .....

A Trillion dollars of US mortgages are resetting to higher rates this year ...

Everyone has an itchy trigger finger on the sell button ......

Yanks might start bombing Tehran shooting oil past $100 .....

The yen carry trade may start to unwind ....

The world might stop consuming so much Chinese Junk leading to less demand for the stuff we dig out of the ground .....

Im sticking to my plan of day/week trading only holding nothing over a weekend, everything sold by Friday ! (win or lose).

Goodluck for 07'

 

[nizar]

Why are these months so bad?

LOL read the whole post.
His point of posting that cliche, and it is a popular one, is that markets are risking, investing is risky, ie. every month is risky!

 

[CanOz]

LOL read the whole post.
His point of posting that cliche, and it is a popular one, is that markets are risking, investing is risky, ie. every month is risky!

December, selling leading into the holidays
May, selling after the bull run after Christmas
End of June, tax loss selling
September, typically a bad month

Am i close?

 

[Sean K]

Could be a wave C in May, heading to 5450ish.

MAYbe....

 

[Judd]

There are months in which one should be careful in the Markets.

September
May
December and
July.

Others are

Janurary
Feburary
March
April
June
August
October
and
November.

Knew I'd seem something similar before. It is a paraphrase from Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar by Mark Twain for the Month of October.

http://etext.virginia.edu/railton/wilson/calendar.html

Apparently even Warren Buffett is quoting from the calendar (see February)

 

[dhukka]

Just a question from a beginner. Only started trading after the May drop of '06 so I am a bit skittish about that month

But since most people seem to think that we are looking at a 5-10% correction right now, does that mean that May will be as bad as last year?

Also, as an investor with only about 10k invested, should I be thinking about selling out and buying back in around June/July? The broker costs seem to be substantial enough for me that I should just hold and ignore the markets for a month or two

Thanks for any help, just trying to get my head around these psychological aspects of the market...

The fact that you need to ask this question demonstrates that you really shouldnt be putting your money in the stockmarket. Put it under your mattress your sure to lose less.

 

[Buster]

G'day NumberCruncher.. or is it Chicken Little, AKA Henny Penny..

This whole year looks bad ......

The US is slipping into a recession led by its tumbling realestate market .....

A Trillion dollars of US mortgages are resetting to higher rates this year ...

Everyone has an itchy trigger finger on the sell button ......

Yanks might start bombing Tehran shooting oil past $100 .....

The yen carry trade may start to unwind ....

The world might stop consuming so much Chinese Junk leading to less demand for the stuff we dig out of the ground .....

Hmmm.. You missed 'the Sky is Falling..'

Although not too many have commented on the Ex Div & Record dates of most companies are all around this time also, and traditionally these dates tend to depress the stocks price.. coupled with the general tale of woe that is the 'correction' it probably looks worse than it actually is..

My portfolio always takes a bit of a hit around this time of year (as well as Oct/Nov) due to the dividend strippers etc.. I'm not particularly fussed at the minute. I don't expect to much volitility around May due to the 'shake out' thats occuring at the moment.. I think it's people trying to avoid the 'bad' month of May by getting out early, and in doing so creating the same conditions, just earlier in the year..

Then again I could just be full of sh*t..

Cheers,

Buster.