Yes, I know what you mean, I need a few more hours in a day.
Have you noticed that the harder you work at it the luckier you get
I'm finding difficulty working out where to place the entry/stop to get a suitable R:R and maximise my potential return.
A quick scroll up to most of your other charts show you are picking patterns where the stocks are approaching previous resistance or have with considerable work popped a bit. So you are playing classic breakouts.
From my perspective they always offer either a poor R:R or if you place tight stops under a significant recent bar a poor win rate, small stops get hit more often, especially as the ranges expand considering the set up.
Again from my perspective playing trades that move off bases or pullbacks allow much more practical set ups (ie. you can actually make money over 100 trades). You have three outcomes,
1. You get stopped out.
2. You get a run up to old highs/resistance. And therefore get to move your stop to BE.
3. You get a run up to old highs/resistance that then turns into a breakout trade which you then have a great R:R
A quick scroll up to most of your other charts show you are picking patterns where the stocks are approaching previous resistance or have with considerable work popped a bit. So you are playing classic breakouts.
From my perspective they always offer either a poor R:R or if you place tight stops under a significant recent bar a poor win rate, small stops get hit more often, especially as the ranges expand considering the set up.
Again from my perspective playing trades that move off bases or pullbacks allow much more practical set ups (ie. you can actually make money over 100 trades). You have three outcomes,
1. You get stopped out.
2. You get a run up to old highs/resistance. And therefore get to move your stop to BE.
3. You get a run up to old highs/resistance that then turns into a breakout trade which you then have a great R:R
good insight !
Pav.......consider where is the SPRINGBOARD !
Motorway
A quick scroll up to most of your other charts show you are picking patterns where the stocks are approaching previous resistance or have with considerable work popped a bit. So you are playing classic breakouts.
From my perspective they always offer either a poor R:R or if you place tight stops under a significant recent bar a poor win rate, small stops get hit more often, especially as the ranges expand considering the set up.
Again from my perspective playing trades that move off bases or pullbacks allow much more practical set ups (ie. you can actually make money over 100 trades). You have three outcomes,
1. You get stopped out.
2. You get a run up to old highs/resistance. And therefore get to move your stop to BE.
3. You get a run up to old highs/resistance that then turns into a breakout trade which you then have a great R:R
A half dozen from tonights data where I wouldn't mind seeing you guys apply a bit of VSA analysis to.
BND - CCU - GBG - HGO - PEK - NFE.
Nothing too shabby in that lot really Pav, PEK is the winner today though.
Yeh I saw that. PEK was a great one!
Did you get on any?
Yeh I have fallen back into that trap upon reflection.
I will continue to test my ideas as I go.
I definitely want the majority of my trades to be on the springboard and return a strong R:R. I will also look for those opportunities where breakouts occur on good absorption volume and establish some more concrete entry rules for those.
An under looked process in someone trying to learn TA/trading is losing the forest for the trees as far as how the market unfolds over time. You can spend your 10,000 hours looking at charts of breakouts an/or whatever setups but by the nature of hunting for these you are building in a survivorship bias. You will look at a chart like SYR for example and think "arh thats what I want". Then go about finding that pattern and endless explaining the why's it did this and why's it didn't do that. Rationising every move, every bar maybe without context.
But the bottom line or maybe the starting point is timing. The time as to when to risk money. Spending sometime on working for example the process of a chart like SYR compared to or within the context of what was happening to the broader market. With this one for me December action was telling given the overall market context.
Just a fell thoughts.
STX - note there IS resistance further to the left of the chart back in July/Aug 2011. This volume, however is not close to the magnitude of the recent ultra high volume bar.
I'm looking at the PEK chart now. It's gapped up through strong resistance. I'll be interested to see how this plays out in the following days.
I'm not sure what you mean with that last part Trembling Hand. Are you referring to when the December market was falling sharply but the stock was not (relative strength)? Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Yeah not a well put point of veiw on my behalf, still a little foggy :silly:
Just trying to point out that any chart outcome has as much to do with the overall market as much as the individual setup.
Don't spend all your time learning/looking for chart setups and ignoring how markets as a whole move. If you can understand where we are at as a market, to use the current vernacular risk on or risk off, you will develop a far greater understanding of when to start risking money on trades and when to be patient, when to chase and when to wait for pull backs, when to let a profit run and when to take what you can get.
Without this understanding you will end up buying breakouts just as they turn to failed breakouts and you will be buying support just as they are about to turn into failed support.
IMO.
The most valuable feature of Figure Charts.
It is in these horizontal formations, or congestion areas, on the figure
chart that we find the greatest aid: (a) in determining how far a stock should
go; (b) when it meets opposition, viz., when it has about reached the end of
its move; and with the help of the vertical chart (c) determining the trend,
and (d) when a stock is on the springboard.
when it meets opposition
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