Simulated/Hypothetical trades

pavilion103 · 14 March 2011

I thought it would be good for people to be able to get opinions/ask questions about either trades they are currently in or looking at getting into.

I am a beginner who is running a simulator. The first one I'd like to get advice on is the following: PDN.
I shorted this one in the simulator on Friday for $4.73 and it has fallen 16% on volume which is over 7 times its 21 day moving average.
If I closed out now my profit on this position would be 5R. I haven't encounted a chart like this in my brief time simulating.
It is best to exit out and take the large daily profit? Does a volume that large ring alarm bells?

tech/a · 14 March 2011

First thing to do if you going live is post before the trade not in hindsite

pavilion103 · 14 March 2011

Yeh that's a good point.

I didn't intend to post anything but the post was more a result of how to handle the trade from this point onwards. I have no idea what ridiculous volume like that means so I'll close it out.

skc · 14 March 2011

pavilion103 said:
I thought it would be good for people to be able to get opinions/ask questions about either trades they are currently in or looking at getting into.

I am a beginner who is running a simulator. The first one I'd like to get advice on is the following: PDN.
I shorted this one in the simulator on Friday for $4.73 and it has fallen 16% on volume which is over 7 times its 21 day moving average.
If I closed out now my profit on this position would be 5R. I haven't encounted a chart like this in my brief time simulating.
It is best to exit out and take the large daily profit? Does a volume that large ring alarm bells?

What were you simulating? Did you have profit targets?

Taking outsized/unexpected gains may be part of your system, but it's always difficult to know what to do when fundamental news get in the way of a position opened on pure technicals.

Synergy · 14 March 2011

pavilion103 said:
I have no idea what ridiculous volume like that means so I'll close it out.

I think in this case it means a lot of people want to sell uranium stocks...

Personally I think it's an over reaction but time will tell.

pavilion103 · 14 March 2011

Synergy said:
I think in this case it means a lot of people want to sell uranium stocks...

Personally I think it's an over reaction but time will tell.

Ok. I didn't even realise this was based on news which was released today. Shows how new I am to this

skc · 14 March 2011

pavilion103 said:
Ok. I didn't even realise this was based on news which was released today. Shows how new I am to this

Same with your ACB on the other thread...

Did you know there was an earthquake in Japan?

pavilion103 · 14 March 2011

skc said:
Same with your ACB on the other thread...

Did you know there was an earthquake in Japan?

How much fundamental knowledge to I need to have/take into account? Whenever entering a position, after I've done my exploration/filters, should I always check big moves to see if they were a result of news?

Also yes, I am finding it difficult how to handle fundamental news when I am trading on a purely technical basis.

skc · 14 March 2011

pavilion103 said:
How much fundamental knowledge to I need to have/take into account? Whenever entering a position, after I've done my exploration/filters, should I always check big moves to see if they were a result of news?

Also yes, I am finding it difficult how to handle fundamental news when I am trading on a purely technical basis.

Many don't but I only trade things that I at least know something about. Just got to find your own style.

But knowing PDN is a uranium play is probably general market knowledge that you will pick up by being in the market long enough...like now.

pavilion103 · 14 March 2011

skc said:
Many don't but I only trade things that I at least know something about. Just got to find your own style.

But knowing PDN is a uranium play is probably general market knowledge that you will pick up by being in the market long enough...like now.

I guess I've been so caught up on the technical side of things that all I've been looking at is charts. Maybe this has been embedded in my reading books such as "How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market" - Nicholas Darvas, where he traded purely on price info and volume I think.

pavilion103 · 16 March 2011

What to do with one like this?

Gapped down a lot and looks like a bullish bar (from my limited reading/education).

Is this a good exit point?

tech/a · 16 March 2011

If your short then too early to make a decision---but you need to know why I made that decision. You need to know what your looking for.
Your right there is some buying but until tomorrow you wont know if its actually hidden selling.I expect either an inside day OR a higher high closing lower than todays high.

Oh and I dont know anything about stocks I trade---only what other write up if I read it---I dont care.

pavilion103 · 16 March 2011

tech/a said:
If your short then too early to make a decision---but you need to know why I made that decision. You need to know what your looking for.
Your right there is some buying but until tomorrow you wont know if its actually hidden selling.I expect either an inside day OR a higher high closing lower than todays high.

Oh and I dont know anything about stocks I trade---only what other write up if I read it---I dont care.

Ok, so this is then a signal to be cautious and monitor how it goes tomorrow? Which of these statements are correct:
1. If it trades higher and then falls below the close of today it is a very bearish signal?
2. If it trades higher and closes higher then maybe time to exit?
3. If it trades higher and closes higher on low volume then it's bearish because it means there isn't much buying?

tech/a · 16 March 2011

pavilion103 said:
Ok, so this is then a signal to be cautious and monitor how it goes tomorrow? Which of these statements are correct:
1. If it trades higher and then falls below the close of today it is a bearish signal?
2. If it trades higher and closes higher then maybe time to exit? Depends
3. If it trades higher and closes higher on low volume then it's bearish because it means there isn't much buying? Depends

Altered each to answer.Sorry cant be more definitive--yet.
Volatility is to be expected and as such will make the Obvious less obvious.

pavilion103 · 16 March 2011

tech/a said:
Altered each to answer.Sorry cant be more definitive--yet.
Volatility is to be expected and as such will make the Obvious less obvious.

haha you've got me confused mate, but one thing is certain.... I will figure it out as I go.

skc · 16 March 2011

pavilion103 said:
What to do with one like this?

Gapped down a lot and looks like a bullish bar (from my limited reading/education).

Is this a good exit point?

View attachment 41895

I know many people don't care about fundamentals and trade quite successfully.

But BCI is in the headlines today.

Have a read and tell me that piece of fundamental information doesn't explain what happened in today's bar.

ThingyMajiggy · 16 March 2011

If this is a sim thread, I'm gonna go with an up day tomorrow(just going by that chart). I would have exited at the close of today. Can always short again if volume looks weak etc. Just keep watching, whole point of simming, find out what does what. You'll probably just get twice as confused if you ask people on the net what they think about your positions though. Trade what you think, record, adjust, repeat. Meh

Boggo · 16 March 2011

skc said:
Have a read and tell me that piece of fundamental information doesn't explain what happened in today's bar.

Do you mean this skc ?
(Reuters) - Hong Kong-listed Regent Pacific on Tuesday terminated its A$345 million takeover offer for emerging Australian iron ore producer BC Iron , saying it did not have sufficient support of BC Iron's largest shareholder, Consolidated Minerals.

Regardless, the writing was on the wall (in the price) last month !!!!!!!

(click to expand)

skc · 17 March 2011

Boggo said:
Do you mean this skc ?
(Reuters) - Hong Kong-listed Regent Pacific on Tuesday terminated its A$345 million takeover offer for emerging Australian iron ore producer BC Iron , saying it did not have sufficient support of BC Iron's largest shareholder, Consolidated Minerals.

Regardless, the writing was on the wall (in the price) last month !!!!!!!

(click to expand)

Exactly. Mass exodus in the morning on the collapse of the takeover deal by those who think they are doing low risk takeover arbitrage. Then those on the sideline realise that it is still a viable company...

I have to say the chart is brilliant and did foretell the story. It is a very good example of how price action can reveal the action of insiders.

pavilion103 · 17 March 2011

How do these look at trades to enter 17/3/2011?

I am completely new to trading so don't shoot me down if they are obvious poor opportunities. I started my sim and filtering of trades this week.

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