Silver price discussion and analysis

TabJockey · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

Mr Z said:
20,000 oz... randomly... here and there... 21... circa 750K...

Pretty sure he means $20,000 worth.

I believe that 20k silver is a good short term investment, allot of sentiment and solid fundamentals suggest a run to $50 however i'm not so sure about long term, ride the bull while it runs but at this pace it will run out of puff within the next 2 years.

Also the bullion bugs that are riding on the glory of high silver and gold prices are starting to get a little bit annoying. Yes precious metals are at all time highs, no the world currencies are not about to collapse. If you want to buy bullion to hedge against a complete financial meltdown then that's up to you but don't consider it a "big possibility". It is a very remote risk.

Mr Z · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

I'd not be buying here although my technical work projects mid 40's for silver. We will likely see $25 again this summer, there can't be much more than 6 to 10 weeks left in this move. It has been epic but it is in the final quarter IMO.

20K... oh! I think in oz's not $

explod · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

TabJockey said:
Yes precious metals are at all time highs, no the world currencies are not about to collapse. If you want to buy bullion to hedge against a complete financial meltdown then that's up to you but don't consider it a "big possibility". It is a very remote risk.

"...very remote..." we had a very near one in 07/08, very remote, interesting. It is usually worthwhile putting up some reasoning behind a statement like that Tabjockey.

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles archive/2010.11.22 gold and cash.htm

Just a starter, will seek out some more as time permits.

TabJockey · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

Yeah there are a very large amount of blog's and websites that proclaim the existence of UFO's, just because there is a large amount of material on the interwebs does not mean that its "probably legit".

If you really want to research an issue and be able to provide solid evidence for one side of an argument then I reckon unbiased academic journals are probably your best bet.

disarray · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

TabJockey said:
unbiased academic journals are probably your best bet.

no such thing exists

Mr Z · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

disarray said:
no such thing exists

Waddaya mean! Anything I write is completely unbiased

explod · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

If a Company issues more shares. a common complaint and rightly in my view, the value of the existing shares are diluted. If money is printed without matching GDP then (even without inflation/deflation being considered) the value is being diluted.

And if, and a great example is before the Federal Court today as we speak, like Centro we borrow not only beyond our equity base but our means to pay it back we gradually go carputt. The US are doing just that and yesterday I put up a link that says Aussies may be doing the same thing. There is a lot of mounting evidence that were may be going down the tubes and that is not from some remote academic as you say but from ordinary everyday facts that we can all relate to.

What I object to is the arrogance of saying it is "...very remote..." when just maybe it is not.

Silver has been a very great long term addition to my Super Fund and there are no signs saying I should sell just yet.

explod · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

sinner said:
explod, please provide basis for your claims:

1. Which mean are you referring to?
2. The ratio has not been 15:1 for a long time, on what basis do you believe there will be a blow off once the old (possibly DEFUNCT) ratio is reached?

Apologies sinner, hve been pre-occupied on other matters of late.

1. was referring to the average which I understood long term was less that where we are yet.

2. the link put up on the growing shortage and increasing industrial demand indicates the silver price must rise.

jimmyizgod · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

explod said:
If a Company issues more shares. a common complaint and rightly in my view, the value of the existing shares are diluted. If money is printed without matching GDP then (even without inflation/deflation being considered) the value is being diluted.

And if, and a great example is before the Federal Court today as we speak, like Centro we borrow not only beyond our equity base but our means to pay it back we gradually go carputt. The US are doing just that and yesterday I put up a link that says Aussies may be doing the same thing. There is a lot of mounting evidence that were may be going down the tubes and that is not from some remote academic as you say but from ordinary everyday facts that we can all relate to.

What I object to is the arrogance of saying it is "...very remote..." when just maybe it is not.

Silver has been a very great long term addition to my Super Fund and there are no signs saying I should sell just yet.

forget silver - id add powdered milk and army rations to my super fund

sinner · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

explod said:
Apologies sinner, hve been pre-occupied on other matters of late.

1. was referring to the average which I understood long term was less that where we are yet.

This is extremely subjective and not the best way to look at it. Face it: If you go back to a 100 year average, we are talking market sentiment on vastly different numbers of "global gold and silver underground". Massive new supplies have popped up in the last 100 years, the ratio nor its mean will be the same as it always has. The ratio can and SHOULD adjust based on the market sentiment of how much gold and silver are left in the earths crust. So a longer term avg is meaningless.

2. the link put up on the growing shortage and increasing industrial demand indicates the silver price must rise.

and they magically know it must rise to 15:1? Come on dude.

explod · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

sinner said:
This is extremely subjective and not the best way to look at it. Face it: If you go back to a 100 year average, we are talking market sentiment on vastly different numbers of "global gold and silver underground". Massive new supplies have popped up in the last 100 years, the ratio nor its mean will be the same as it always has. The ratio can and SHOULD adjust based on the market sentiment of how much gold and silver are left in the earths crust. So a longer term avg is meaningless.

and they magically know it must rise to 15:1? Come on dude.

S i g h h, we all only see what we want to and that is fair enough. I like to follow researched fundamentals and trends, not what the Reserve Bank Governor says or some Doctor representing the a big bank, seems they never qualify their projections with any (let alone) sound reason. That link and any others I put up do.

But of course the professional investment industry are unable to gain percentages off trades or trailing fees from those who invest in physical p/m's. So of course they are going to go out of their way to can Johnny come lately ratbags like myself, who is just trying to preserve his money and keep it away from the vultures.

When I ditched my financial adviser in 2002, the last in a line of three I have never looked back. Anyway each to his own.

And I have just picked up a new indicator on looking back the last year. Every time we have negative attacks on these p/m threads the price seems to break out north. Funny thing that.

Anyway we shall see.

damien275x · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

I disagree I really think the USA economy is going to continue to go downhill
You can't print money backed by nothing. Even I know that. Hopeless!

explod · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

damien275x said:
I disagree I really think the USA economy is going to continue to go downhill
You can't print money backed by nothing. Even I know that. Hopeless!

Spot on, plain and simple as it can be clearly seen.

GumbyLearner · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

explod said:
S i g h h, we all only see what we want to and that is fair enough. I like to follow researched fundamentals and trends, not what the Reserve Bank Governor says or some Doctor representing the a big bank, seems they never qualify their projections with any (let alone) sound reason. That link and any others I put up do.

But of course the professional investment industry are unable to gain percentages off trades or trailing fees from those who invest in physical p/m's. So of course they are going to go out of their way to can Johnny come lately ratbags like myself, who is just trying to preserve his money and keep it away from the vultures.

When I ditched my financial adviser in 2002, the last in a line of three I have never looked back. Anyway each to his own.

And I have just picked up a new indicator on looking back the last year. Every time we have negative attacks on these p/m threads the price seems to break out north. Funny thing that.

Anyway we shall see.

Great post.

sinner · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

explod said:
S i g h h, we all only see what we want to and that is fair enough. I like to follow researched fundamentals and trends, not what the Reserve Bank Governor says or some Doctor representing the a big bank, seems they never qualify their projections with any (let alone) sound reason. That link and any others I put up do.

But of course the professional investment industry are unable to gain percentages off trades or trailing fees from those who invest in physical p/m's. So of course they are going to go out of their way to can Johnny come lately ratbags like myself, who is just trying to preserve his money and keep it away from the vultures.

When I ditched my financial adviser in 2002, the last in a line of three I have never looked back. Anyway each to his own.

And I have just picked up a new indicator on looking back the last year. Every time we have negative attacks on these p/m threads the price seems to break out north. Funny thing that.

Anyway we shall see.

What is so amusing is that even though I'm a silver and gold bull, repeatedly posting both short term and long term thoughts on the topic since 2008, every single time I call you on your unfounded posts (which in any other thread would be much less acceptable) then I am somehow equated with the "other side" aka bad guys, who reckon silver is going to $1 or something.

As if!

I ask which longer term mean, and you say: "was referring to the average which I understood long term was less that where we are yet".

Sure dude, and somehow the article explains all. You follow researched fundamentals but won't actually explain them in any specific terms.

Calling you on this, somehow makes me one of the guys trying to "can you" who's just seeing what he wants to see?

Well I am calling you out again, I would like to see just 1, 1 time where you post a GOLD:SILVER ratio chart, with your thoughts marked out. It's not necessary, but I would love to see this "long term mean" you keep referring to.

How exactly, are we below this long term mean (the chart is a bit old, we are at 37 currently FYI)?

GumbyLearner · 5 April 2011

Re: SILVER

sinner said:
What is so amusing is that even though I'm a silver and gold bull, repeatedly posting both short term and long term thoughts on the topic since 2008, every single time I call you on your unfounded posts (which in any other thread would be much less acceptable) then I am somehow equated with the "other side" aka bad guys, who reckon silver is going to $1 or something.

As if!

I ask which longer term mean, and you say: "was referring to the average which I understood long term was less that where we are yet".

Sure dude, and somehow the article explains all. You follow researched fundamentals but won't actually explain them in any specific terms.

Calling you on this, somehow makes me one of the guys trying to "can you" who's just seeing what he wants to see?

Well I am calling you out again, I would like to see just 1, 1 time where you post a GOLD:SILVER ratio chart, with your thoughts marked out. It's not necessary, but I would love to see this "long term mean" you keep referring to.

How exactly, are we below this long term mean (the chart is a bit old, we are at 37 currently FYI)?

Do you have a price target sinner? We know you mate.

Mr Z · 6 April 2011

Re: SILVER

When we are in the final stages of this thing the finical industry will be setup to profit from PM's and they will be pushing them. ETF's are just the beginning of this change IMO.

sinner · 6 April 2011

Re: SILVER

GumbyLearner said:
Do you have a price target sinner? We know you mate.

At this price, no I have repeatedly stated:

That at these prices I would prefer for the Aussie dollar to do it's thing and keep the prices down as much as possible allowing me to buy more ounces for the same dollars.

Anyone using price targets from the Hunt brothers squeeze, or older, are full of it IMHO. Trendline projections are about the only remaining useful tool at these 30y breakout levels!

At this time last year, 1AUD bought literally twice as much silver as it does today. Happy to hold the physical silver I've been buying at lower prices, but much less happy to add more at these levels when gold remains relatively attractive.

Mr Z · 6 April 2011

Re: SILVER

Gold is due to redress the balance IMO... from here into the up coming midterm high.

explod · 6 April 2011

Re: SILVER

Mr Z said:
Gold is due to redress the balance IMO... from here into the up coming midterm high.

Why?

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