Normal
Yes it is I watch for whats going on in that consolidation.Its just a replication of an equity curve of a known input Win % and R/R.Simply take a pik of it with say Snag it them load onto Photobucket and copy and paste the tagged name here.[quote]The attachment 30% win 1-1 R shows an extrapolated equity curve with a win ratio of 30% with a 1:1 cents gained cents lost figure. As you can see there is only one direction for such a system...down.[/quote]Of course.[quote]When I use 30 W/L and 3.52:1 CG:CL figures in the model you can see the positive expectancy in such a system you describe, although the line is not stable. This can be seen in the variation that occurs when I plug the numbers in a second time and get a vastly different euity curve line.[/quote]Of course again having the known inputs.The same would occur with Montecarlo analysis of a known system.[quote]What the model does not replicate is the effect of your very tight stops. I imagine that your very tight stops creates a much more stable line (if somewhat flatter).[/quote]Given the inputs above you can run it.ButIt probably replicates it pretty well but as I said there are a few very large R winners and lots of smaller ones averaging to 3.52 the equity curve if I plotted it would look different.[quote]When I design a system I specifically look for one that gives me a greater than 50% W/L because it gives me a stability that works with my trading style. Anything that I can't get greater than 50% WL I abandon.[/quote]Fine but my method isnt a system as such with set rules which govern all the aspects of the trade.Its a discretionary method which while it has rules are applied as achart develops. While I aim for a high win rate I'm more interested in very low losses and high wins = more reward for Risk.I would abandon anything which after a period of discretionary trading I found was not returning a positive expectancy.I certainly would NOT discard a method which showed a positive expecatncy but had a win rate of less than 50% infat the larger majority of Longer term methods have a low win rate characteristic as T/T does but huge R/R.[quote]The last one is the extrapolation of the equity curve line on my system. (Although it is somewhat distorted, I'm just shy of 50 trades and the system ran at 100% WL for the first 20 trades).I suppose this is why I've never been attracted to day trading (although I find the topic very interesting) or extremely short time frames as the equity line isn't stable enough for my OCD nature.[/quote]Perhaps look at your nature!Outliers have secured my financial future.Reliable repetitive profits (Business /Trading/ Proprty) maintain my lifestyle while I sit on Trainlines waiting for the next outlier to hit!A diversification in each has proven for me atleast that 80% of my time Ill be reaping the 20% which keeps me going (Actually more like 95%)and 20-5% of the time BINGO!
Yes it is I watch for whats going on in that consolidation.
Its just a replication of an equity curve of a known input Win % and R/R.
Simply take a pik of it with say Snag it them load onto Photobucket and copy and paste the tagged name here.
[quote]The attachment 30% win 1-1 R shows an extrapolated equity curve with a win ratio of 30% with a 1:1 cents gained cents lost figure. As you can see there is only one direction for such a system...down.[/quote]
Of course.
[quote]When I use 30 W/L and 3.52:1 CG:CL figures in the model you can see the positive expectancy in such a system you describe, although the line is not stable. This can be seen in the variation that occurs when I plug the numbers in a second time and get a vastly different euity curve line.[/quote]
Of course again having the known inputs.The same would occur with Montecarlo analysis of a known system.
[quote]What the model does not replicate is the effect of your very tight stops. I imagine that your very tight stops creates a much more stable line (if somewhat flatter).[/quote]
Given the inputs above you can run it.
But
It probably replicates it pretty well but as I said there are a few very large R winners and lots of smaller ones averaging to 3.52 the equity curve if I plotted it would look different.
[quote]When I design a system I specifically look for one that gives me a greater than 50% W/L because it gives me a stability that works with my trading style. Anything that I can't get greater than 50% WL I abandon.[/quote]
Fine but my method isnt a system as such with set rules which govern all the aspects of the trade.
Its a discretionary method which while it has rules are applied as achart develops. While I aim for a high win rate I'm more interested in very low losses and high wins = more reward for Risk.
I would abandon anything which after a period of discretionary trading I found was not returning a positive expectancy.
I certainly would NOT discard a method which showed a positive expecatncy but had a win rate of less than 50% infat the larger majority of Longer term methods have a low win rate characteristic as T/T does but huge R/R.
[quote]The last one is the extrapolation of the equity curve line on my system. (Although it is somewhat distorted, I'm just shy of 50 trades and the system ran at 100% WL for the first 20 trades).
I suppose this is why I've never been attracted to day trading (although I find the topic very interesting) or extremely short time frames as the equity line isn't stable enough for my OCD nature.[/quote]
Perhaps look at your nature!
Outliers have secured my financial future.
Reliable repetitive profits (Business /Trading/ Proprty) maintain my lifestyle while I sit on Trainlines waiting for the next outlier to hit!
A diversification in each has proven for me atleast that 80% of my time Ill be reaping the 20% which keeps me going (Actually more like 95%)
and 20-5% of the time BINGO!
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