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brianwh

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On at least two occasions this week, on Your Money Your Call, a reference was made to a newsletter which advised clients/subscribers to sell all their equity holdings. Does anyone know which newsletter this was?

My interest in this comes from my increasingly contemptuous view of the ability these highly paid people to provide information that is any better than you can get from race horse tipsters about Saturday's likely winners. And these "tipsters" have forecast just about every possible eventuality, so sooner or later some of them are right - and that makes them a "guru", at least for a while. To me some of the silliest ones are the technical analysts on YMYC who say things like "if it goes down to $3.51 it could go all the way down to $2.95". Please!

I guess a lot of people on this forum will just yawn and say something along the lines of "how long did it take you to work this out?" but perhaps there is some way forcing accountability.
 
brianwh said:
On at least two occasions this week, on Your Money Your Call, a reference was made to a newsletter which advised clients/subscribers to sell all their equity holdings. Does anyone know which newsletter this was?
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This was in Alan Kohler's "Eureka Report."

brianwh said:
To me some of the silliest ones are the technical analysts on YMYC who say things like "if it goes down to $3.51 it could go all the way down to $2.95". Please!
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Think of this not as a prediction, but merely a possibility that the chart trend is showing the analyst.
 
brianwh said:
On at least two occasions this week, on Your Money Your Call, a reference was made to a newsletter which advised clients/subscribers to sell all their equity holdings. Does anyone know which newsletter this was?

My interest in this comes from my increasingly contemptuous view of the ability these highly paid people to provide information that is any better than you can get from race horse tipsters about Saturday's likely winners. And these "tipsters" have forecast just about every possible eventuality, so sooner or later some of them are right - and that makes them a "guru", at least for a while. To me some of the silliest ones are the technical analysts on YMYC who say things like "if it goes down to $3.51 it could go all the way down to $2.95". Please!

I guess a lot of people on this forum will just yawn and say something along the lines of "how long did it take you to work this out?" but perhaps there is some way forcing accountability.
Click to expand...

This is not bad advice, you omit to mention, and so probably did YMYC that one can buy back in if one is wrong, and that using a stop buy or stop loss can limit damage to one's wealth.

Furthermore investors in HIH insurance in the late 90's would not agree with you.

gg
 
brianwh said:
a reference was made to a newsletter which advised clients/subscribers to sell all their equity holdings.

My interest in this comes from my increasingly contemptuous view of the ability these highly paid people to provide information that is any better than you can get from race horse tipsters about Saturday's likely winners.
Click to expand...

In March 2009 when the All Ords hit rock bottom there was one of these high profile gurus on national TV recommending all investors sell their portfolios. What a first class Turkey he was, 6 Months later the market was up 30%. If investors followed that lead they would have lost massive amounts of money. The majority of these tipsters get it wrong time and time again. I stick to my own investment style and I survived the GFC, still retired. Those gurus are all trying to flog something, be it a newsletter, book or just brokerage fees, make your own decisions is best I reckon, cheers.
 
Bill M said:
Those gurus are all trying to flog something, be it a newsletter, book or just brokerage fees, make your own decisions is best I reckon, cheers.
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Yes, ain't that the truth.

It's all about turnover. They make their positive cash flow from real estate or shares no matter what price you turnover stock at and pick your pockets for a bit more with their newsletters and books etc along the way.

The point is if enough people get too engrossed in seeking and following someone else's information, news, opinion and recommendations, it tends to become a self fulling prophecy to some extent.
 
I do like to listen to these pundits however - when they say sell everything i get very interested in buying.
 
I remember when Rivkin said that if you are still in the market you are a moron!
It was in a news letter that came out weekly and that week turned out to be a bottom that was followed by the 10 year bull market!
 
That is their main job, create actions

sell, buy, go with the flow, never stop pumping out news good or bad as long as they get people to do something ...

Imagine some dude buy a stock and sit on it for 5 years ...they wont be able to sell any newsletter :) because this guy probably doesn't care what happen from now for the next few years...

They have to pump out stories, create confusion, make people nervous, indecisive so they can buy the next month newsletter and see what in store :D

There are these people around...first they bear on Banks, then nothing happen, they bear a bit more then nothing happen, now they pro-banks WTF :)
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
This is not bad advice, you omit to mention, and so probably did YMYC that one can buy back in if one is wrong, and that using a stop buy or stop loss can limit damage to one's wealth.

Furthermore investors in HIH insurance in the late 90's would not agree with you.

gg
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Without knowing what the context of this "sell everything" advice was, it is a bit hard to comment. But unless you could be very confident you will recognise the beginning of the next major uptrend when (if?) it comes, you will miss out on on major gains. Of course if you have the view that next year will see cataclysmic falls across the board in equities this might make sense. Otherwise, a portfolio of well managed businesses with low debt and a strong track record makes more sense to me.

But also there is the issue of commentators making these more extreme calls and then when it turn out to be wrong or bad advice, the call just slips into obscurity. Of course, if it turns out to be right (or more likely a lucky guess!) then this can be pointed to as evidence of the commentators superior insight.

I have jotted down a few of what I see as big calls and am watching what happens. This will be one of them. Another was Steve Keen's forecast of a 40% fall in house prices. And also Bill Evans' call of 1% cut in interest rates by the RBA.
 
Great thread Brian.

Funny to think these clowns get paid to write their garbage. Funnier still are the clowns that do it for free (ego?) ... plenty of them have been calling for new post 2009 lows in the US for nigh on three years now (wrong for three years ... and still c rapping on).

Along such lines, great post at The Reformed Broker blog:

No One Is Ever Wrong Anymore
He torched his shareholders and lost billions of dollars juat as his fund had raised record levels of assets under management, a total ****-show. And yet, you read his just-released letter to investors and it almost reads like he’s saying “I wasn’t wrong, the market was.” It really is an astonishing piece of writing…

Earlier this week I was on CNBC’s Fast Money and they had the most ridiculous human being I’ve ever seen on financial television discuss his current short call on Apple stock – originally made two years ago. I know. But ACI Research CEO Edward Zabitsky is “sticking to his guns” and maintaining his $270 target (a 50% haircut from the current price above $450). His short thesis has now changed. Of course it has – the original one was invalidated. This guy just looks and sounds like a walking margin call. And then, unbelievably, someone says that “at least he has the convictions to stick with his call” and my ****ing head almost explodes. “Conviction” is stupidity when new evidence presents itself or circumstances change.
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(My bolding).
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/02/02/no-one-is-ever-wrong-anymore/
 
27 out of 29 prominent economists predicted an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank this week.
 
Earlier this week I was on CNBC’s Fast Money and they had the most ridiculous human being I’ve ever seen on financial television discuss his current short call on Apple stock
Click to expand...

I guess AAPL will be a short one day - perhaps today @ $500??
 
Uncle Festivus said:
I guess AAPL will be a short one day - perhaps today @ $500??
Click to expand...

That may well be his hope (sorry for the four-letter word) - so he can eventually be 'right' (after being wrong for years and seeing a 100% rise).

Here is a simple guide for the clowns (I would only add, having formed a view, stick with it regardless of developments & keep repeating ... eventually there has to be some sort of fall - stopped clocks etc.):

2.png
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-...tm_campaign=Feed:+clusterstock+(ClusterStock)
 
brianwh said:
I have jotted down a few of what I see as big calls and am watching what happens. This will be one of them. Another was Steve Keen's forecast of a 40% fall in house prices. And also Bill Evans' call of 1% cut in interest rates by the RBA.
Click to expand...

I have another "big call" to add. Last Thursday on YMYC Gary Glover from Novus Capital gave his "conviction" tip as BHP going to $20-$24 this year (first half I think)
 
With 12 months having elapsed since I first posted in this thread, I thought it might be good to look at how the "big calls" identified have panned out.

Alan Kohler - "sell everything and move to cash". You'd have missed out on a near 20% (includes dividends) gain in equities off set by a gain of 4-6% return in TD's
Steve Keen - house prices to fall by 40%. They've still got a long way to go before they reach negative 40%
Gary Glover - "conviction" call for BHP to fall to $20-$24.
Bill Evans - interest rates to fall by 1%. Good call - they actually fell by 1.25%

And these were just some of the more extreme calls.
 
brianwh said:
Alan Kohler - "sell everything and move to cash". You'd have missed out on a near 20%
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I'll be waiting for his next call. "Buy a well balanced mix of the top blue chips and hold, as clearly the wolrd is set to boom."
That will be the time to sell everything.
 
brianwh said:
With 12 months having elapsed since I first posted in this thread, I thought it might be good to look at how the "big calls" identified have panned out.

Alan Kohler - "sell everything and move to cash". You'd have missed out on a near 20% (includes dividends) gain in equities off set by a gain of 4-6% return in TD's
Steve Keen - house prices to fall by 40%. They've still got a long way to go before they reach negative 40%
Gary Glover - "conviction" call for BHP to fall to $20-$24.
Bill Evans - interest rates to fall by 1%. Good call - they actually fell by 1.25%

And these were just some of the more extreme calls.
Click to expand...

I really don't know what to say Brian other than these jokers make me sick. Just goes to show, those so called super intelligent, well educated, get it wrong most of the time. The worst part about it is they sucker people into buying their newsletters, maybe that's what it's all about. Shame on them.:(
 
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