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SEA - Sundance Energy Australia

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SEA is struggling along today, not goin up, not goin down much just struggling as is some other good stocks like SDL their all just struggling. I think the markets in general are all frightened about the Euro debt thing again and not to mention the floods in Qld. Toowoomba and surrounds which is were I live and now I know why their worried!!
 

Personally I think it has more to do with other companies like AUT and EKA making a run, the attention seems to shift between all these great companies and others, I wish I had more to invest in SEA as I see huge value here. I hold and am happily waiting for for future rises in SEA
 


I don't know much about technical indicators... all I know is from this chart we have had 2 dips/corrections/retracements followed by 2 very strong upward runs. Last week or 2 has been the 3rd dip/correction/retracement... so could this be the start of another 15 - 20c run? Looks very possible as the fundamentals are still impressive.
 

Sure it's possible, but there's still not a great deal of buying pressure at the mo. Enthusiastic buyers are what propels the SP up.

The Gap up on the 29/12 exhausted the last move and the buyers that were there before Xmas have got there lot.

Maybe this week will bring new buyers into the market.

There seems to be short-term support at 0.72 if the price begins to move sideways.
 
Hey there. Just wondered everyones thoughts on the production update announced today?
 
The announcement yesterday showed solid production growth and the market since has gobbled it up. Just looking at the depth now with 4x more buyers. Great pressure is back on for another solid run. Just as I predicted in that chart, hopefully it comes to fruition.
 
I am on SEA still.. currently holding at entry price of 82.5 (bit high) it hasnt been my favourite for last couple of weeks as it fell back on my purchase.. Looking good now though and if buy sell spread stays as is today could really move upwards, I think its going to be a hold for about 6-9 months to see big growth.. once more wells come into play and news on success of Niobrara market is going to take alot more notice..
 
I've taken a small amount of stock off the market, now a free-carry trade on my remaining holding (which is still my largest due to price appreciation).

The consolidation phase seems to have shaken the remaining profit takers out, and I'd expect the market to start looking to price in 2,000 BOEPD production as per the Dec 11 target from past announcements, given previosu targets have been met and management continue to put in place partnerships/arrangements that add value to existing acreages.
 
breaker said:
Looks like .80 is support ...it has been slow
Click to expand...

I too was a little frustrated with slow progress but I think that was due to being a long term holder of AUT and watching them fire off new highs weekly.
However, I have only been a holder of SEA for 4 months and the SP has more than doubled. That is brilliant and I am confident we have a long way to go yet with great management and a strong business plan being enacted.
There's certainly a lot of blue chip holders that would love SEA's growth and prospects.
Very happy holder, thanks to all posters.
 
euroz update SEA valuation to 1.22

Investment Case:

Given the continued strong production results and the lack of geological risk we expect
shale sector tailwinds will gain further momentum going forward with companies
involved in the proven commercial shale oil plays like SEA to be the key beneficiaries.
Future reserve, production and earnings growth are very likely for SEA.

Production is forecast to double over the next year from primarily its Bakken assets, 900-
2,000 boepd, >90% oil. The Niobrara shale should add to this profile from FY’12.

We are very positive on SEA retaining strong equity positions in its Niobrara acreage
(25% average) for its development drilling program, set to ramp up in the June Q.
The Niobrara oil shale is poised to be the next big oil shale in the US based on recent
transactions and well results – SEA has a high quality >10,000 acre position which in time
could well dwarf its producing Bakken acreage.

We expect SEA will book a large increase to its 1P and 2P reserves (say >50%) and
commission its inaugural 3P reserves in March. Due to the low risk nature of these
resource plays, 3P reserves are a good guide to future 2P and 1P reserves – we estimate
SEA will book >45 mmbbls 3P valuing it at a very cheap <$5/boe EV/3P reserves.
 
Gee SEA really pulled back off it's high last week and the sellers really took the profits and really gave up their shares cheap. Seems to be good support around 74/75c so hopefully we can bounce off from here on the next production news. AUT has definitely taking the limelight off SEA it seems. I chose to bet on SEA and wait for AUT to drop due to placements... we will have to see what happens. SEA is due for another bounce though and hopefully we can get oil back over that $90 level.
 
RE: Bright green glow, why do you think AUT is going to have more placements? I'd think that they are fully funded for their current drilling programs and more placements may be coming but only for acquisitions.

Also you've implied that they are going to drop after a placement, last time I checked AUT rose strongly after the placements at $1.60. They paid a dollar and got $1.50 worth of assets so actually the value of each share is higher after more are issued (seems counter intuitive, but if you buy stuff that is not only relatively cheap but returns 50% p.a. initially on a "bad well", any capital deployed is obviously going to be rerated). They are sitting on some of the craziest results in the Eagle Ford Shale so it makes sense that they are focusing just on one small area.

Also imo the comparison between SEA and AUT is overblown a little, both have extremely different business models when you compare them, AUT's is just to focus on the current interests, but SEA's is to buy cheap acerage (and lots of it), shore up reserves then onsell (maybe keeping a royalty). The only similarity the two have is that they are in the oil industry, they have massively different models and I doubt it's all that possible to make a direct comparison between the two given the completely different aims of them. I do agree that both do look undervalued at today's prices though (cheers ConDog for the numbers on AUT, might've sold out before now if it wasn't for you ).

PVF.
 

Sorry I meant the second round coming online tomorrow as the placement, and yes AUT did drop for around 5 days after the placement came online in December. They are totally different in respect to acreage but both are proven and quality.
 
Unconvincing performance from SEA today on very low turnover. It looks like its being pumped up by some people. Im not sure but it might go backward for a while as the price of oil is going sideways again, mainly due to the world oil reserves being over stocked and the Saudi's playing with the oil output again. The U.S has oversupply in their reserves at the moment and China is heading into a week of holidays. This is all probably temporary but for how long? The oil futures are down a bit as well. Anyone got any idea on whats going on?

Cheers
 
I feel your sentiment Raymond. i to am a little concerned as i bought a big parcel of SEA at 72 Cents. However i believe that if the management of this company is as good as everyone says it is then there must be plenty more upside left in this one. Maquarie has also backed this stock and i do believe that they do know what there doing. Euroz also has a valuation which has risen to $1.22 on this stock. I have also heard Roger Montgomery say that we may be in the midst of an oil crises and from what ive seen of Montgomery he is almost normally always correct. SEA has had a huge run and may just be catching its breath.. i would like it however if we could get a bit more posting action on this forum.. its dried up a little lately.. Condog hit us with something!!!
 

Update I didnt see that Beech Energy has sold 11.7million shares of Sea and ceased to be a substantial holder. I wonder why - any ideas your comments and knowledge would be much appreciated.
 
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