Few things... First the use of the burnie demo plant... if I'm not mistaken, Intec have called this semi commercial for a reason, I believe that it will not break even price wise so don't count on it contributing to cash flow, I think it will be a sink rather than a source. I'm pretty sure they have stated that it will cost more to run than it generates, this is because it is too small, and that means inefficiencies, this was done of course to prove the process (with as low a risk, and as low a capital outlay as possible) and was never originally intended to go into commercial operation, I believe they will use it to "tweak" things so that they can make better use of the fully commercial plant.
Second, I gave up ages ago trying to work out potential cash flows from Intec's operations... too many details have not been supplied and trying to reconcile EBITDA amounts in presentations with estimates from what has been released proved completely frustrating to me. I decided to simply wait and see full year reports... it is ok to do estimates if you know all of the relevant info, but we don't so I think it is a fruitless exercise.
Finally I'll post my latest Intec graph. Kennas is concerned about breaking through 20c... I'm not, because of this graph... maybe I'm wrong, but I think on the longer term INL is still in an uptrend channel and has just bounced off the bottom trend line... I don't think it will be more than a month or two before it is above, and stays above 20c.
I may be a bit unconventional in my charting at times, but rules are meant to be bent or broken.. unorthodox methods have worked for me in the past (in many areas other than charting) I've often been told that won't work, but the proof is in the pudding as they say
we shall see
If you take into consideration the latest gem of info released, that MBL has 8.7% of intec on a fully diluted basis, something I have mentioned was coming (possibly only at HC) based on announcements last year about the loan facility and the issue of options to MBL if the facility was used past (I think march this year) and the fact that Macquaries options are well in the money, It may not be too long before we see a new substantial holder on the books.
I was speculating elsewhere recently that the price may remain low for a while, a cap-raising may happen (or the issue of more options) and then Macquarie would play their ace and surprise the market with a substantial holding notice however it seems the cat is out of the bag now. I've seen what an initial substantial holder notice from MBL can do to a penny stocks share price, and I'm looking forward to the same thing happening for INL... that's not to say it will happen, but I think the chances are that the substantial holding notice will come, and when it does the sp will rise.
Tony.
Great post, just like the many on this thread over the last six month's.
Starting to read like an Agatha Christy noval.
Now to grind the axe, re EAFD Burnie
My words; Limited Production
Their words; Semi Commercial. (good point, think i will give them a call on Monday, and ask the question. Will post if i get an answer
RE; cash flow"s and EBITDA, I think i give up too. There are just to many buttons that could be pushed all at the same time, IE. Ord River processing fee"s etc?:
Re, your chart there virtually saying the same thing.
Yours for consolidation at or above 20
Kennas is looking for a tecnical trade point with breakout through 20. Watch the volume next week for our answer.
Tony a very important point in your post;RE loan facility with Macquarie Bank and their right to exercise opies if loan was still outstanding past April? i think.
Do they really want to give them to Macquarie for that price?
As at 31 April they had $3664000 cash at bank,
They owe Macquarie $2000000 which ^gives M the right to the opies,
Why not pay them out?
As at 31 April
Further repayment of which is anticipated during the current! quarter,(what later that afternoon) or should that of read next! quarter:
These Guy's are not fool"s
To date the only fair (to all parties deals) has been with Polymetals,and Orian Holdings Corp (Ivanhoe Mines ) re; lic funding agrement 7 Aug 2003.
(because they needed capital and creditability )
Just unniversity rock oligests, i don"t think so.
Look at these deals:
31 Dec 2003 purchase Hellyer Mill etc A$1,597,973 from recievers.
Replace To-day A$100,000,000, thats 1.5 cents in the doller.
17 Feb 2004 recieve R and D Grant from Gov A$1,430,000, pay"s for Hellyer.
10 Mar 2004 purchase from Encore Metals (Zeehan Zinc) pay"s A$30,000 +4.5 mil inl share"s + opies,
+ others.
Not bad share traders either:
IMO the JV with JRV, could never happen because, JRV needs more capital than INL has. Let"s see if their Chinese come out from behind the bushes.
Some of inl"s sp weakness of late, could be due unlucky traders punting on that JV.
Personally i think INL is in pressure-cooker mode, just don"t know when she"s gonna blow.
Good luck to all patient INL holders.