Are investors missing the boat on this future ASX leader?
The market is underestimating the clear path to profitability
Roy van Keulen
15 January 2025
Our perception of narrow-moat Siteminder (
SDR) as a future category leader in hotel e-commerce software isn’t reflected in current share prices, with shares significantly undervalued compared with our $10 per share fair value estimate. The shares have fallen close to 14% in the last 3 months.
Market concerns seem to center around the company’s continuing lack of profitability despite an unusually supportive economic background in recent years. These concerns are understandable. Since 2022, markets have clearly expressed a desire for emerging tech companies to demonstrate that they have the potential to generate profits. SiteMinder’s string of losses can, therefore be read erroneously, as an inability to generate profits.
However, we see a clear path to profitability. We expect SiteMinder to achieve profitability in fiscal 2026 and to continuously expand earnings.
First, we see a limited impact from cyclicality. Although an increasing share of SiteMinder’s revenue is coming from its more cyclically exposed transaction revenue, this revenue has lower gross margins than the company’s subscription revenue, limiting the impact on the company’s bottom line. Given that we view the company as only being in the early stages of a long secular growth trend of digitization in the hotel sector, we believe the company’s results are primarily driven by secular trends, not cyclical ones.
Second, we believe that unusually high investment into research and development should ease. SiteMinder has launched more substantively new products than any company in our Australian technology coverage. These newly developed products are unique in market and therefore don’t require similar spending levels to stay competitive. Rather, these recent investments will allow the company to pull away from competitors. We expect research and development to stay relatively fixed in the future and to decline as a share of revenue.
On the road to profitability
We expect SiteMinder’s strategy to be wide-ranging, including a focus on attracting new customers, increasing penetration of its current product suite, and developing and launching new products. We view SiteMinder’s strategy as appropriate, despite its wide-ranging nature, as all three focus areas provide large and highly winnable opportunities.
We expect SiteMinder to take significant market share within the hotels industry. SiteMinder’s market share among hotels currently sits in the midsingle digits, yet SiteMinder is the leader in its space, and has twice the market share of its closest competitor. We expect scale-based cost advantages to drive consolidation in the channel manager industry, as subscale players are pushed out of the market and scaled providers, like SiteMinder, take share. Specifically, we expect SiteMinder to take dominant market share in larger single-location hotels, and in hotel chains outside of the largest chains.
We also expect SiteMinder to increase its take rate through increased penetration of its existing product suite, especially through adoption of its transaction-based products. We estimate transaction-based revenue currently makes up around 10 basis points of the gross booking value, or GBV, of SiteMinder’s customers. For comparison, SiteMinder Pay has a take rate of around 2%-3% of payments that are processed through a hotel’s website or, from fiscal 2025, also on payments processed at a hotel’s premises. Similarly, SiteMinder Demand Plus has a take rate of 15% on incremental demand generated through search engine optimization.
Finally, we expect SiteMinder’s new products to be significant growth drivers, especially Channels Plus. We expect Channels Plus, which aggregates several smaller channels into a single channel, will see rapid adoption among SiteMinder’s existing customers, and help attract new customers. Although the take rate of this product is like that of payments, we expect its uptake to be much higher, due to its more differentiated nature, as well as the clear value it provides.
SDR bulls say
- SiteMinder is the world’s largest e-commerce software provider for the global hotel industry, at twice the size of its nearest competitor.
- SiteMinder has a large and highly winnable market opportunity, consisting of increased market penetration, product penetration, and increased digitization of the hotel industry through new products.
- SiteMinder’s Channels Plus product is a unique and highly valuable product that will accelerate customer acquisition and take-rate expansion.
SDR bears say
- SiteMinder’s end markets are highly cyclical.
- SiteMinder’s market share currently sits in the midsingle digits, which leaves significant room for new competitors to come in.
- SiteMinder has a history of losses and may struggle to achieve profitability
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