SDL - Sundance Resources

dj_420 · 29 October 2007

insidetrader said:
Depends on what the BFS says...it's due out in december apparently...good news could send this one back to 70c or even beyond...

Beyond??? They already have a market cap over 1 billion and are not producing anything. IMO they already have a lot of good news factored in.

With 1.965 billion shares on issue fully diluted any further cap raising is going to add significant dilution. I have seen people speculate prices of $1 plus, which as current shares would put them at close to 2 billion dollar market cap....with no production until 2010.

You could quite easily do an estimate of future expected earnings versus market cap, in which case the PE would be blown sky high.

IMO we are beginning to see some crazy valuations put forward for companies that are not producing for a number of years yet.

Very similar to the uranium boom, iron ore is starting to feel very toppy and IMO ppl are better off searching and identifying the next big thing.

I might also add that even with all those options been converted will only bring in $13 million or so, very insignificant compared to cap expenditure needed to get resource into production.

adobee · 29 October 2007

dj_420 said:
Beyond??? They already have a market cap over 1 billion and are not producing anything. IMO they already have a lot of good news factored in.

With 1.965 billion shares on issue fully diluted any further cap raising is going to add significant dilution. I have seen people speculate prices of $1 plus, which as current shares would put them at close to 2 billion dollar market cap....with no production until 2010.

You could quite easily do an estimate of future expected earnings versus market cap, in which case the PE would be blown sky high.

IMO we are beginning to see some crazy valuations put forward for companies that are not producing for a number of years yet.

Very similar to the uranium boom, iron ore is starting to feel very toppy and IMO ppl are better off searching and identifying the next big thing.

I might also add that even with all those options been converted will only bring in $13 million or so, very insignificant compared to cap expenditure needed to get resource into production.

Thats being said this stock has a big following and every man and their dog talking about it or spruiking it. It doesnt take much in the way of a good announcement to do with an amount of iron in the ground or great grades for it to sky rocket for the day. I think my ebet shares would skyrocket if they changed the name to eiron and said that they had big reserves in there second life mines...

nikki · 29 October 2007

dj_420 said:
Beyond??? They already have a market cap over 1 billion and are not producing anything. IMO they already have a lot of good news factored in.

With 1.965 billion shares on issue fully diluted any further cap raising is going to add significant dilution. I have seen people speculate prices of $1 plus, which as current shares would put them at close to 2 billion dollar market cap....with no production until 2010.

You could quite easily do an estimate of future expected earnings versus market cap, in which case the PE would be blown sky high.

IMO we are beginning to see some crazy valuations put forward for companies that are not producing for a number of years yet.

Very similar to the uranium boom, iron ore is starting to feel very toppy and IMO ppl are better off searching and identifying the next big thing.

I might also add that even with all those options been converted will only bring in $13 million or so, very insignificant compared to cap expenditure needed to get resource into production.

commmooooonnnnnn - offer something new if you are trying to build negative sentiments re SDL.

there are many ways a company can deal with high liquidity - ADY is about to reduce total shares by offering 2.4.... for 1 shares (or something like that). i.e. will reduce total shares from xxx to yyy.

what has FMG produced so far?

are you trying to convince yourself out of not buying into sdl?

Miner · 29 October 2007

Dear Nikky
Do not get upset.
WHen we enjoy the sunshine then we need to accept the dark cloud in the sky too. Personally with the disaster of merger I have personally lost faith on SDL management. I will not however compare it with FMG just because it is iron ore. FMG Is managed by Andrew Forest and the number of shares exchange is rather very low compared with volume of shares available with SDL. FMG is in Western Australlia where people can see it and I have personally seen the consignment trucks going through northern high way and also met few of the operators (like Herb Elliot, Andrew, Graeme, Russell, Peter, Chris, Julian, etc ) very closely in few occasions. They are not my friends but very smart people compared with SDL operators. At least FMG is nearing to production but SDL - who knows and who can see it in Africa.
All they need to invite Charles Atkins from Southern Equity to visit and ramp up like he successfully did for FMG shares.

Regards

nikki · 30 October 2007

Miner said:
Dear Nikky
Do not get upset.
WHen we enjoy the sunshine then we need to accept the dark cloud in the sky too. Personally with the disaster of merger I have personally lost faith on SDL management. I will not however compare it with FMG just because it is iron ore. FMG Is managed by Andrew Forest and the number of shares exchange is rather very low compared with volume of shares available with SDL. FMG is in Western Australlia where people can see it and I have personally seen the consignment trucks going through northern high way and also met few of the operators (like Herb Elliot, Andrew, Graeme, Russell, Peter, Chris, Julian, etc ) very closely in few occasions. They are not my friends but very smart people compared with SDL operators. At least FMG is nearing to production but SDL - who knows and who can see it in Africa.
All they need to invite Charles Atkins from Southern Equity to visit and ramp up like he successfully did for FMG shares.

Regards

far from it - i am not upset! i welcome critical engagement

i understand the sentiment re sdl not being in Aus but i guess the issue is who cares as long as the sales contracts come through. in fact, i would assume that the cheaper production costs will mean more value for money.

my concern is the rise of the Aus$ - SDL is getting a lot less for what it has in the bank.

like you i have lost some faith in the management team and am thinking of bailing on that count alone!

adobee · 30 October 2007

Miner said:
Dear Nikky
Do not get upset.
WHen we enjoy the sunshine then we need to accept the dark cloud in the sky too. Personally with the disaster of merger I have personally lost faith on SDL management. I will not however compare it with FMG just because it is iron ore. FMG Is managed by Andrew Forest and the number of shares exchange is rather very low compared with volume of shares available with SDL. FMG is in Western Australlia where people can see it and I have personally seen the consignment trucks going through northern high way and also met few of the operators (like Herb Elliot, Andrew, Graeme, Russell, Peter, Chris, Julian, etc ) very closely in few occasions. They are not my friends but very smart people compared with SDL operators. At least FMG is nearing to production but SDL - who knows and who can see it in Africa.
All they need to invite Charles Atkins from Southern Equity to visit and ramp up like he successfully did for FMG shares.

Regards

Comparing SDL management to Twiggy and saying he is very smart compared to them is not really a fair comment. A large % of people would consider him to be a very smart conman, aside from that ask other people in his previous companies if they think he is smart.. Perhaps compare his past successes and failures to that of the SDL management..

Anyway SDL 63.5c now.. I might just grab my 20% since yesterday morning and bail...

dj_420 · 30 October 2007

nikki said:
commmooooonnnnnn - offer something new if you are trying to build negative sentiments re SDL.

there are many ways a company can deal with high liquidity - ADY is about to reduce total shares by offering 2.4.... for 1 shares (or something like that). i.e. will reduce total shares from xxx to yyy.

what has FMG produced so far?

are you trying to convince yourself out of not buying into sdl?

Lol, no not trying to convince myself to not buy. It would need a lot of convincing for me to buy into SDL at these prices.

A share consolidation doesn't change market cap, so although liquidity will reduce the market cap will stay at these extreme levels.

Just IMO.

dj_420 · 30 October 2007

nikki said:
far from it - i am not upset! i welcome critical engagement

i understand the sentiment re sdl not being in Aus but i guess the issue is who cares as long as the sales contracts come through. in fact, i would assume that the cheaper production costs will mean more value for money.

my concern is the rise of the Aus$ - SDL is getting a lot less for what it has in the bank.

like you i have lost some faith in the management team and am thinking of bailing on that count alone!

Regarding the capex, was it 2 billion? I cant remember, so either way they are going to need some significant injection of cash, either by proving up resource and selling percentage stake into it or diluting the heck out of the holdings with multiple cap raisings.

Risky Trader · 6 November 2007

SDL seems to be running on empty tank here...

Anyone got something to share about this company?

We need some fresh news... good one hopefully

EZZA · 6 November 2007

i sold out at 55.5c about a week ago, just a short term trade for me.
most of my money is in gbg.

at 54 looks like it worth another dip, i've got my cash stashed away else where so will give it a miss for now.

Miner · 8 November 2007

Wednesday's Australian has advised to sell Sundane Resources being a useless share and culminating with many problems in Africa now.
Strangely enough SDL is seeking senior level project manager to manage its ghost project too.
Time to get out of this junk - I have been idiotically loyal to this share.

Regards

Fab · 8 November 2007

Where did you read that? I can't find this story anywhere on the Australian website. I suppose this type of issues happen all the time in project like that.

Risky Trader · 8 November 2007

Miner....

If you can post the link to the news please... would be interesting to read.

Wonder what will happen to the company now? I doubt it will go under.. So does this mean it will have years before it reach $1?

Thanks

Miner · 9 November 2007

Risky Trader
I read teh Australian Business (Perth edition) section in the lunch room. No electronic copy was there. Actually the message header was for SDL and ended with Anvil.
It however did mention to Sell SDL.
I have to search it from library now.
The down hill price is proving theshare is dud.

Regards

winsol · 9 November 2007

Miner stop trying to talk the price down. Have a look at http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00230_BBY Brokers Report 26 Oct 07.pdf dated 26 October and post the merger issues

I'll take an independent brokers perspective anytime over a an article that someone thinks they read in a lunch room that they now can't reproduce which is based on some journos view of the world.

I am quite comfortable with my investment. Talbot and Jones are experienced and well known as successful. now is a time to be buying when people like Miner are pushing the negative view and when the Dow is on a downer

Risky Trader · 9 November 2007

winsol said:
I'll take an independent brokers perspective anytime over a an article that someone thinks they read in a lunch room that they now can't reproduce which is based on some journos view of the world.

I have to say, I am with Winsol on this on.... Seeing is believing, so unless miner comes up with actual proof... this is rather lame attempt to spread rumour and manipulate SP.

Yes Cameron seen to be millions miles away from civilisation as we know it
Yes SDL is no way near production
Yes it is a speculative stock
and YES it's rather long term stock.... for those going for a short ride;... probably find it scary.

IMHO .. I bet all the commodities price has been effected by the US dollar value...

Shocking? not really wouldn't be suprise if AUD match USD by the end of the year.

Will it recover?...that bazillion dollars question.

Miner · 10 November 2007

Risky Trader and Winsol

Thanks for your posting.
Let me put the record straight.
I am not ramping down SDL. I am holding the shares and bought them at 40 cents. It will be against my interest to ramp down SDL.
Fact is it is a bad investment now with circumstances. With stronger Oz $ the situation is worsened.
If I manage to go library in the weekend I will make sure by MOnday/Tuesday the section from Australian is posted in this forum. For those who has the copy of Perth Australian of Wednesday 7 Nov can see the business page themselves.
Some of us probably behaving like camel in the desert . Putting the mouth in desert to avoid storm or a kid to close teh eyes thinking no one could see him. Choice is yours. Fact remains SDL is now a dud and I am not ramping down rather would like to see the share to go up so that I can sell with good profit.
Now here is the extract from Eureka Report of today 9Nov by Tim and it speaks itself- no mention on GBG or SDL.

Stock picks
So, you say, name the shares. On a commodity-by-commodity basis here’s a theoritical share portfolio structure like this:

Iron ore: after the big two - BHP and RIO - go only for the stocks with haematite (direct shipping) ore. Companies proposing to mine lower-grade magnetite face an enormous barrier in the form of high energy costs. Best of the emerging haematite stocks were listed in Eureka Report on October 17 – BC Iron, Iron Ore Holdings, FerrAus, Territory Resources and Centrex. Two new names for that list are Yilgarn Mining and Giralia which have their feet on excellent deposits and of course, don't forget Fortescue.
Nickel: Xstrata started the ball rolling. Others will follow. Stocks to watch as takeover targets are: Western Areas, Sally Malay, Mincor and Independence (also for its gold position).
Copper: Oxiana, Aditya Birla, Kagara, Jaguar Metals and CopperCo.
Zinc: Zinifex, CBH Resources, Terramin and TNG.

Risky Trader · 13 November 2007

Does anyone know is there will be any goods news during the AGM or does will the meeting help the SP?

Annual General Meeting
Level 8, Exchange Plaza, 2 The Esplanade Perth WA

Thu, 29 Nov 2007
2:00PM

Vaughan · 13 November 2007

I find it confusing how people sentiments over SDL are constantly fluctuating.

Nothing has really changed, sure there is a risk, but its the same risk we were facing months ago. Before the merger people were talking quite positively about SDL and suddenly its a dud...

This share still has a great long term value as far as I'm concerned. Perhaps we should wait for the next round of results to come out before we write it off.

vjindal · 13 November 2007

I feel that stock should bottom out very soon and should resume upward march if the company can come up with +ve drilling results . I am still confident that it will trade around $1k by end of next year.

SDL - Sundance Resources

winsol

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