Julia
In Memoriam
- Joined
- 10 May 2005
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+1. I share that admiration.
+1. I share that admiration.Robusta, I admire your courage in being willing to disclose your trading method and thereby exposing it to the appraisal/criticism of others. The polite way in which you've managed to field certain criticisms of your method is commendable.
Robusta, I admire your courage in being willing to disclose your trading method and thereby exposing it to the appraisal/criticism of others. The polite way in which you've managed to field certain criticisms of your method is commendable.
Peter why cant an investor invest technically? There are some great interviews I've read with technical investors who use a 1 mth time frame.
Agree but also agree with Robusta's added exit conditions. But simple should be evolved not purely initiated.
Correct me if wrong but I thought value investing was identifying a stock trading below its intrinsic value. Very little if anything to do with "conditions"?
There are a few who see the current ranging (Last 2 years) as Distribution. Neither accumulation OR Distribution have been confirmed.*
I would certainly argue that I cannot see the improvement you mention in macro economic conditions-even micro.
I really dont know that buying your brains out now is a wise idea. the next dip may not be a dip but a bear trend of catastrophic proportions---if you have a contingency for this then fine. A few of us are sitting on the side lines---portfolio wise.
And this is Robusta's specific issue I believe --- some great conditions in his plan but NO IDEA if when traded together they are long term profitable. He's basically forward testing his ideas. The market is ranging and he continues to find a KEY to profit.
All WILL come in a bull market---I my opinion capital preservation and development and testing of his plan/s should be paramount. This WILL take some years and a great deal of education---but it will be worth it.
Evidence then great.If Ben Graham can test for results so to can Robusta and anyone!
Again he will know when he has results to prove that he knows.
His trading will reflect his results and he will be far better able to follow his method without addition or subtraction as he will have a blueprint of numbers he can compare with.
He'll know if that string of losses is out of character---if his R/R is within range of his high and low Deviations set by his Montecarlo testing.
If you cant do it Robusta pay someone who can---will be a very sound investment in my opinion---you have some great building blocks---what you need to know is how to put them together.---in the best building design.
Interesting choice - I don't understand Vocus myself - happy to admit it.
I'm really struggling to find much in this market of interest (actually I haven't bought anything since CAB in early December). I started looking deeper into HHL a few weeks ago, but never finished my analysis. I will get back to it eventually. I think I understand your position a bit better now. The AGM notes have some good stuff.
You should look at PFL. I think it's a pretty solid company with a great competitive position in its market. Seems to have held up really well. Margins are a bit soft, but it looks cyclical (and due to future investment) rather than structural to me. It's fairly well priced at the moment though. Maybe the next result will be soft and cause a dive...
I might have to start digging deeper into the market. Nothing obvious stands out in the "usual suspects." Something around the 100mil market cap range might come up with some luck.
Hate to admit it buy I am not sure I fully understand it myself.Probably should not chase the next big thing in these sexy new industries but I like the management and they have a heap of skin in the game.
Robusta,
Isn't that a big risk? I bought VOC 6 months ago, without fully understanding it - sold it at a small profit when I realised I had NO idea how to value the company or determine how it made it's income. Great lesson for me.
While you might be comfortable with it - the hard part for me was when announcements came through, and I had no basis of fact/analysis, other than the price action - I'm not a technical trader. So I sold.
Good luck for this one though!
slooi1
Robusta,
For me to understand how you could call this a "value" investment based on the fundamentals, I would like to know given the following, how this is possibly "value"?
In the last 2 years the share price has gone from $1.40, to the current ~$1.80, yet cashflow has fallen from 23.9 c/s to 19.5 c/s. Earnings have fallen from 15.7 c/s to 13.3 c/s. Operating margin from 46.6% to 36.5%, Return on capital from 18% to 13%, Return on equity from 38.7% to 20.1%. Long term debt has gone from $13m to $25m, while the current account looks much worse than either last year or the year before, because of lower cash assets.
To me these sorts of parameters are what fundamental investors would look for in stocks to short! Can you please explain where the fundamental value is here? It's not like there is a dividend to keep you happy.
brty
I think this sector is set to boom
The reason why I ask, and this goes for the previous question as well, is that I recently purchased some stock in a company with similar metrics, though it was both "value" as well as technical in my opinion. The stock being Select Harvests. The value I saw though, was from an almond grower, who had 2 poor years, just like SHV, yet he told me his crop this year was much better than the prior ones. I purchased SHV in December at $1.40. This price was at a steep discount to the $3.40 of 2 years ago, yet a good crop would see the profitability rise close to prior levels.
In the case of VOC, it is already at a premium to the price of 2 years ago, so a rise in the fundamental metrics is perhaps already factored in. Do you know of any reason why VOC/the sector might boom? "I think" is not really a value based logical argument.
You could be right about SHV, I will have to take a closer look.
NEW INVESTMENT
NVT - Navitas Limited
Bought 1023 @ $2.93 = $2997.39
Call me crazy if you like given NVT recent earnings downgrade and the rising A$ but I think NVT may be one of the few ASX listed companies with a sustainable competitive advantage.
Took me a while to understand the business and in the short term operating conditions may remain difficult but I will be shocked if EPS is not at least 3-4 times present levels in 10 years.
PART INVESTMENT SOLD
CCP - Credit Corp
Sold 520 @ $5.00 = $2600.00
To be honest I feel a bit foolish with this one. When I decided to buy NVT a couple of days ago (and placed low ball bid @ $2.820 thought it might be a good idea to take some profits on CCP and rebalance portfolio so I placed sell order @ $4.88
Anywhoo totally missed the announcement this morning and my order was filled @$5.00
CCP is still my largest holding - just.
Investment sold
Credit Corp
Sold 853 x CCP @ $5.84 = $4981.51
This is more a portfolio decision, I am starting to see some value in the market (have two unfilled orders at the moment) and I will be investing in the MTU spp.
CCP is the holding that I think is closest to my estimate intrinsic value so sold to free up cash - and reduce capital losses incurred to date.
Bring on the volatility, I have no particular macro view of where the markets will go but thought it prudent to have capital available to take advantage in the event of a correction.
10%
Hardly freeing up capital
60% + I'd have thought.
Hi tech/a,10%
Hardly freeing up capital
60% + I'd have thought.
Some would call me a lucky bastard, I would have difficulty arguing against this.
So it would seem that if one consistently seeks bottoms it is bottoms that one will find.
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