Yes, but he only started in July. Given that FA is closely related to the earnings of a company and these are reported every 6months, you'd need to watch it over a longer term.
But I do agree that if that sort of return were to continue, there are some serious issues there.
How might he improve return ?
(1) Have some stop loss conditions.
(2) Have some position sizing conditions
(3) Have some filtering introduced. (Index either whole index or group or both)
(4) Look at Equity curve filter.
(5) Look at entry timing conditions.
As a few ideas. I cant see why these cant be introduced into Robustas fundamental method.
Robusta
This has an average of around $12,500 a day traded?
You allowed yourself 3c slippage to buy?? And were the only trade for the day.
Look I know your having a go and doing your best but--
Sorry I really shake my head.
Well with a - 43% return on capital you may consider how successful this idea is.
Doing the same thing day in and day out and expecting a DIFFERENT result is often not that productive.
How might he improve return ?
(1) Have some stop loss conditions.
(2) Have some position sizing conditions
(3) Have some filtering introduced. (Index either whole index or group or both)
(4) Look at Equity curve filter.
(5) Look at entry timing conditions.
Sorry I am no good at timing, will just have to learn to give my investments time.
Sorry to bring this up again, but what do your charts say abou PET now?
It went up 2% on average volume. I wouldn't be getting ahead of myself.
It went up 2% on average volume. I wouldn't be getting ahead of myself.
It went up 2% on average volume. I wouldn't be getting ahead of myself.
Agree with you sammy, A cute lil tree-frog crowing at a talking duck!
Sorry robusta, I could not help myself *giggle*
I'm normally a lurker and don't post much - but thought I'd jump in here as well.
First of all, I think Robusta is an extremely brave chap to put his investing and trading history on this board for all to see and critique - that'd be quite a hard move for most of us I reckon.
Robusta has fundamental analysis view based on ROE and growing earnings which provides a set of filtered companies to purchase at the right prices. That's a great starting point. It gives a higher probability of success, and a margin of safety.
My concern is this. Having identified the companies, from what I've read in the board posts to date is it appears that Robusta is merely trading the companies based on which one has a bigger discount to the intrinsic value. This means that technical analysis and market entry/timing is of importance to ensure that the great entry and exit prices. Because the trades are short term (< 1 year) - he's more likely to get his gains from the movement of prices based on sentiment, than any movement in prices based on changing intrinsic value (which I see as growing slowly over many years - barring major company changing events).
I believe a learning is really for Robusta to focus on market entry and market timing. Both fundamental and technical analysis is important, especially if he plans on trading companies. If however, the plan is to buy and hold for a longer period (1+ years), market timing is less relevant in my opinion.
I myself am a fundamental investor, but always keep an eye on the price action / volumes etc to ensure I'm getting the best bang for my buck.
slooi1
The problem with something like PET is that, if there's something wrong, you can expect horrible slippage on exit because of the lack of liquidity. It's like staying in an overseas hotel with no fire escape. It's cheap and doesn't really matter if nothing goes wrong. But if there's a fire...
And the fact that with something like PET, you can't really expect it to outperform your interest cost by more than a few percent over the long run... which happens to be your entry/exit spread.
Should be no surprise I disagree on this one SKC. I would expect a minimum 10% CAGR, but probably closer to 15% on NTA, the sp should follow and even close the discount to NTA on these positive results, also a nice little franked dividend while I wait.
I won't pretend I am interested in LICs, but I think it is better to focus not on the current gap between share price and NTA, but the historical average discount to NTA that it trades on. Robusta, do you know the long-term average discount of PET's share price to NTA? This would most likely fluctuate during the market cycle, of course. Probably handy to figure out where it is at the moment. Best to buy when this the current NTA discount is greater than the average by a reasonable margin; if you think the LICs investments are sound.
There isn't a lot left after paying 6-7% interest on your loan. IMO the majority of LICs only offer great return for the management team, and is a relatively lazy way to "value invest".
Curious, do you know what pay-out ratio and forecast dividend for 2012? I looked at this stock late last year, but have found better opportunities so far. Looks interesting still. Another profit downgrade and it could be under $1.This is a bit of a departure from the high ROE stocks in the portfolio but the dividend should more than cover my cost of money and the growth should provide a nice margin on top of inflation.
Curious, do you know what pay-out ratio and forecast dividend for 2012? I looked at this stock late last year, but have found better opportunities so far. Looks interesting still. Another profit downgrade and it could be under $1.
You know what? I have no idea, I imagine in this type of business somewhere either side of a third of profits will be retained for costs and growth and the remainder will be paid to us as owners.
Another downgrade and it will be earning 14 to 16 cents per share, may pick up some more if the price is right.
Not at all. Hence why I have not been in any rush to even look at it properly for the time being.Is there any hurry to pick up the stock? All it's technical indicators are still pointing downward in circumstances where the fundamentals don't appear to be capable of a quick about-face in the current macro economic environment.
Or am I missing something?
Not at all. Hence why I have not been in any rush to even look at it properly for the time being.
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