And the key point here is not don't listen to the market...the point is COMPLETELY IGNORE IT.
The market is a million Muppet's behaving like a million Muppet's....fact is there are no genuine believers selling FGE at under $5
Emotion is the right word. You bang on about how great a company X is from a fundamental point of view, then a week or so later it's all changed and you sell it.
I think you can argue that being impatient and impetuous are strongly related to emotions. You can learn to recognize and control your emotions.
You must be hurt'n buddy. Are you sure about this margin loan thingo you are rabbiting on about? I know you also have MCE. It's like some stockbroker in China read this post and said to himself "I'm going to stick the boot into Robusta."
FGE today is selling for $4.780 I'm sure it's undervalued, but atm that's all anyone is willing to pay for it. What a difference a couple of months make?
Do you use stops at all Robusta?
I can only gather from your reply that if the decisions you are making are not emotional - you must be......
Well - you said it.
I could be mistaken but there is a chance I may have made some errors is stock selection, entry and exit points.
The main errors IMO have either been by not executing my strategy properly or from deviating from my strategy but I digress... the question was about emotion.
Well you have given me pause for thought. Often I hear the main emotions that drive participants in the market are fear and greed.
Will have to put my hand up for greed, I waited a long time for the LOC to be activated and threw money into a falling market not wanting to miss out on the great prices on offer.
Also arrogance would have to be on the list as it has taken me a long time to admit mistakes.
Fear?? not so much, even when I sold FGE I was not afraid of holding a loosing position but looking to crystalize a loss and pick up more at a cheaper price
You posted this back in September and as dark and dire as things seemed I was not hurt'n or depressed but rather confident that lessons would be learnt and positive returns will come - this has not changed.
So after that revelation the best way forward would be to work with my overconfidence and greed and resolve to seek higher quality businesses at a larger margin of safety.
Greedy, overconfident, impatient, arrogant, Mum will be so proud.
Think I might spent the afternoon on the couch - watching F1
Yes I did, note how i have tried to throw some non-stupid sounding words in this post, maybe we should add insecure?
MML is quite easy to value IF and its a big IF the gold price was stable. Obviously this is not the case and that means their sales have the possibility to vary widely. As its a single mine operating so one stream of cash flows that should make it fairly easy to come to some sort of valuation. I posted some share price estimates based on the gold price and what Price/Cashflow ratio the company trades on in the MML thread if your interested.
Due to their margins even if the gold price drops to say $1,300 /oz there is no reason MML still can push through the $10 mark in 2 years time pending their expansion plans.
Anyway just an ideaI'm refining my approach a little at the moment and will probably start a thread similar to this robusta so stay tuned
As its a single mine operating so one stream of cash flows that should make it fairly easy to come to some sort of valuation.
Due to their margins even if the gold price drops to say $1,300 /oz there is no reason MML still can push through the $10 mark in 2 years time pending their expansion plans.
Not fussed with it's long term prospects, I take it?Looking forward to April will be selling QBE if prices are anywhere neat current levels after my minuscule allocation in the SPP.
Not fussed with it's long term prospects, I take it?
edit: also, if COH is a core position, does paying 5-10% more per share matter too much over the long-term? If you think they can repeat their past performance to some degree you should try this exercise. Go back to their listing and allocate capital equally each year at their peak price. Then do the same with their low price. See how much it varies over 10 or 20 years. You will be surprised.
also, if COH is a core position, does paying 5-10% more per share matter too much over the long-term? If you think they can repeat their past performance to some degree you should try this exercise. Go back to their listing and allocate capital equally each year at their peak price. Then do the same with their low price. See how much it varies over 10 or 20 years. You will be surprised.
Seriously insightful observation.
Its a bit late at night to be doing pivot tables - but I make it:
Luckiest person in the world who got the best close price every year for a 10K injection into COH would now have 1.05 Million in stock.
Unluckiest person who picked the worst close price every year would now have 745K in stock.
Person who never pulled the trigger still has their 180K.
Dividends and Interest excluded.
At some point COH will fail, who knows when but it will fail.
It doesn't have to fail. It only needs the market stop pricing it for perfection and holders are in for a big reduction in their capital.
IMHO that is happening now, even though there's still a lot of past aura associated with the stock.
I have an observation regarding COH. The EPS (TTM) is 1.27 AUD according to ft.com. If one knows the future earnings with certainty then a DCF is the correct way to value the business. I will therefore perform a reverse 2 stage DCF on the current share price. (Assumptions EPS = FCF per share, Stage 2 annual growth rate = 3% and discount rate = 12.4%)
If Stage 1= 10 years then the current share price of $60.74 implies an earnings growth rate of approx 24% for the next 10 years. Or if Stage 1 = 20 years then the current share price of $60.74 implies an earnings growth rate of 15.7%
Priced for absolute perfection. Are there thousands of investors who are able to read annual reports, do internet research, read magazines, industry analysis and business analysis so that they have that much confidence in the future earnings of COH? Me thinks not. If I was to buy at that price I would need to have spent minimum twenty years working at the company/industry and a have controlling influence to even get close to feeling comfortable that I am ‘investing’ rather than ‘speculating’. At some point COH will fail, who knows when but it will fail.
Cheers
Oddson
It doesn't have to fail. It only needs the market stop pricing it for perfection and holders are in for a big reduction in their capital.
IMHO that is happening now, even though there's still a lot of past aura associated with the stock.
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