my guess small run and then retrace below yesterdays pricewatsonc said:Anyone jumping on board this morning? What do you think it will do on open?
exberliner1 said:I posted this on HC today......anyone got any comments??
_____Post Reads____
I think the main thing to bear in mind here is that OVR is a tiny micro cap company that has 2 very good projects underway now...
While it is very difficult to ascertain an in situ value based upon the ann. of this morning it beholds us speculative investors to try.
The following is therefore, after looking at the map supplied with today's ann and should be considered a "back of the envelope" type calculation as the strike remains open in length and depth. What I am saying is therefore that this is the absolute minimum in situ value which further drilling can and will only increase.
Depth of the higher grades varies between 30m and 6m - so lets take an average of 18m
Current length of the strike is 2000m
Width - again looking at the map seems to vary between 100m and 300m so let's call it 150m average
%ZN varies between 14.89 and 5.02 - call it 9% for a simple average.
I have no idea about the SG but let's take a guess at 3
So we get:
18 X 2000 X 150 X 3 = 16,200,000 tonnes
16.2mn at 9% = 1,458,000 tonnes of zinc.
Zinc is about US$ 3,100 per tonne or AU$4,108 per tonne.
so we get 1,458,000 X 4,108 = AU$5,989,464,000
or close on AU$6bn
Remember this find remains open at depth and strike length so the AU$6bn based on my conservative calculations should be considered the absolute minimum.
The Zinc is also shallow from surface not 200m down hole and will be quite easy to make into a JORC compliant quote . OVR has already said it will be doing this forthwith. It will also be very easy to mine.
Then there is the copper find already well reported in the IPO document....although I will not confuse myself and others by doing sums on OVR's CU as the excitement today was over the ZN ann.
Now let's look at the number of shares and the current market value of OVR after today's stellar performance.
Number of shares in issue 34mn
Of these 26,400,000 are held by the top 20
Of the 34mn only 17mn are quoted. I do not know how many of the quoted shares are helf by the top 20.
But at the worst case scenario there are only 7.6mn shares available as quoted and outside the top 20. This figure will in reailty be much less as some of the quote's float will be held by longer term investors too.
We saw today in the market action that there was very little selling going on....buyers had to bid up the SP to get a holding.
Now let's go back to the zinc - how do you value an in situ - I have heard lots of people give theories here is it 10% or 5%......how about we be super conservative and give the ZN strike a value of 1% while it is in situ.
That would put a value of AU$60mn on the zinc find against the company's value at today's close of AU$22.1mn
Plus add in the CU project as well - although I do not have time to calculate that right now - perhaps someone else could do this and combine it with my figures.
So back to the ZN to get to the AU$60mn figure with a mkt cap we find ourselves with an SP of AU$1.76 - this is just valuing the ZN at 1% while it is in situ and before OVR produces a JORC comliant quote on a strike that remains open at depth and in length and ignoring the CU strike underway in another OVR project.
Bearing that in mind AU$1.76 is therefore cheap and I say again an absolute minimum.
Finally for those of you who might be concerned about the location of the strike I have an answer. Transport becomes a big and expensive issue here. Over Christmas I was visiting my parents in WA and I met a geologist who works primarily with the juniors. I asked him about MMB and their CU being in the middle of Canada and mostly under a lake.
He told me transport is not an issue - the companies just stockpile the ore and drive it across the frozen lakes to the nearest road. The image of 80 tonne lorries driving across ice I found a bit wierd but that is apparently what they do.... and yes occasionally a truck does fall through the ice... transport will not be a problem especially for a resource with a minimum value of AU$6bn.
Anyway what I was trying to do here was to give a reason why the SP had a good run today and while it will do so again tomorrow.
To further add spice to the situation there are hardly any shares available so the moment a good parcel comes up for sale it will be bought....the only other alternative is to keep bidding up the market in multiple stages as I had to do today in the 40s to get the number of shares I wanted.
To conclude....this is only the beginning OVR has only just begun a huge market re rating...
Any sensible comments on the above would be greatly appreciated...
EB
sp response, down 15% on smallish volumeTotal JORC compliant resource increased by 77% to:
8.95Mt at 6.3% Zn & 1.2% Pb1, or
8.95Mt at 7.5% Zn equivalent2
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there is considerable potential to increase the resource base at the Andrew Zinc Deposit with further drilling.
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The Company is finalising a study into the economics of developing a mining operation at the Yukon Base Metal Project, incorporating the new resource calculation and latest economic figures. Results are anticipated within the coming weeks.
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