Risks to world markets and their potential impacts

[KIWIKARLOS]

At the moment there appear to be a few big events on the horizon that could cause chaos to world economies, the ones that I'm mainly concerned with are:

*A pre-emptive strick / broadening of war into Iran:
This seems to becoming a real threat with the US send F16s to Turkey, Subs and carriers to the gulf and deploying Patriot missiles everywhere. Perhapes this scenario could boost oil/gold prices and send other sectors into a downhill spiral? Any thoughts.

*The supposed housing bubble in America which has the potential to lead the US into a recession, perhapes triggering other foriegn markets into decline. There are many questions here. Will it actually happen. Will it impact on commoditiy prices, if it hasn't already then why would it (with new building figures falling rapidly), can the rapid development of India and China make this irrelavent

Any thoughts

 

[coyotte]

Thats what TRADING is all about!
Be willing to accept that "anything can happen" and could be entirely different to what you anticipated.


Cheers

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

I don't think anybody is really willing to accept the loss of their life savings. :

Isn't it all about buying in when you think things will go up and hopefully selling out before the S&^t hits the fan. I'm simply putting up the idea on anticipating a big fall soon, personally I will be very cautious this year as there seem to be world events building up.

 

[bvbfan]

Derivatives time bomb, no one is worried?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Derivatives time bomb, no one is worried?

There are people that believe if markets weaken then derivative instrument trades will decrease in response to that. A kind of self-correction.

 

[coyotte]

Pull back of course.
Correction -- what is there to correct?
Plunge/Bear --- unlikely!

But the charts will give a Warning:
Just don't take anything for granted


Cheers

 

[coyotte]

As a rule of thumb a comparision of the DJIA & NDX can often give a early warning.

The theory goes -- when Speculators are in the markets the NDX (NASDAQ100) will be strongly out performing the DJIA .

When Investors are in control the DJIA will be out performing the NDX .

But if the NDX starts to CORRECT then it is probably time to look at easing up on ALL positions


The current chart of NDX is hardly anything to write home about

 

[Sean K]

At the moment there appear to be a few big events on the horizon that could cause chaos to world economies, the ones that I'm mainly concerned with are:

*A pre-emptive strick / broadening of war into Iran:
This seems to becoming a real threat with the US send F16s to Turkey, Subs and carriers to the gulf and deploying Patriot missiles everywhere. Perhapes this scenario could boost oil/gold prices and send other sectors into a downhill spiral? Any thoughts.

*The supposed housing bubble in America which has the potential to lead the US into a recession, perhapes triggering other foriegn markets into decline. There are many questions here. Will it actually happen. Will it impact on commoditiy prices, if it hasn't already then why would it (with new building figures falling rapidly), can the rapid development of India and China make this irrelavent

Any thoughts

Kiwi,

I wouldn't limit point 1 just to Iran but general US v Anyone who might disrupt their economy.

No 2, I think we might be coming closer to this being fixed with the Chinese middle class starting to consume just us much as the US, but it's not there yet...there will be a tipping point I suppose. Who knows exactly when that will happen....

I think there are other short term factors that will cause hiccups, but not recession unless combined with other factors, such as above.

kennas

 

[ducati916]

*An end to the Yen Carry trade
*Rising Inflation in rest of the world [excluding Japan]
*Increasing defaults in subprime markets leading to defaults in prime markets
*Oil @ $80+ [watch nationalization in Russia & South America]
*Deflation

jog on
d998

 

[Wysiwyg]

*The supposed housing bubble in America which has the potential to lead the US into a recession, perhapes triggering other foriegn markets into decline. There are many questions here. Will it actually happen. Will it impact on commoditiy prices, if it hasn't already

My super fund has O.S. listed property as the best returns (better than Aussie shares) in the last 6 months at 31.1%.So it might be close to a change I suppose.These are the investment gurus....


Overseas Listed Property
(UBS Global Real Estate Investors Only Index (Hedged))
- AMP Capital Investors Limited
- Perennial Investment Partners Limited

 

[scsl]

There are people that believe if markets weaken then derivative instrument trades will decrease in response to that. A kind of self-correction.

All we need is for a few counterparties to default and BOOM, say hello to a potentially disastrous chain of events. Derivatives make up 75% of the world's liquidity and a massive (and no doubt increasing) 802% of world GDP! (source: The Bulletin, Jan 16, 2007)