RIN - Rinker Group

michael_selway · 4 April 2006

noirua said:
Rinker have closed today at A$20, spot on. Interesting to see if they can reach the analysts A$22.50 valuation to bring them into line with similar USA stocks. USA sentiment index has moved to 77, closed in NY at US$71.03 ( ADR's x 5 ), 12 month chart looks excellent.

its very peaky at 22.50, dont think it can double from here on in

thx

MS

noirua · 6 April 2006

A new all-time closing high in NY at US$73.18 ( ADR's x 5 ) and the sentiment index reaching 80.
The feeling is that Rinker are likely to move on up from here, target US$80.00.

noirua · 6 April 2006

noirua said:
A new all-time closing high in NY at US$73.18 ( ADR's x 5 ) and the sentiment index reaching 80.
The feeling is that Rinker are likely to move on up from here, target US$80.00.

Rinker have raised Annual profit expectations - see ASX.

michael_selway · 6 April 2006

noirua said:
Rinker have raised Annual profit expectations - see ASX.

http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060406/pdf/3w6mf3y4jdfd8.pdf

but are those below consensus forecasts?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 62.8 100.3 127.6 141.8
DPS 21.0 35.0 43.6 49.7

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-06 100.3 20.1 59.8%
Year Ending 30-03-07 127.6 15.8 27.2%

thx

MS

noirua · 6 April 2006

michael_selway said:
http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060406/pdf/3w6mf3y4jdfd8.pdf

but are those below consensus forecasts?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 62.8 100.3 127.6 141.8
DPS 21.0 35.0 43.6 49.7

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-06 100.3 20.1 59.8%
Year Ending 30-03-07 127.6 15.8 27.2%

thx

MS

Reuters state that this is 13% to 21% over estimates. Whether this means that the A$22.50 target is raised to between A$25.50 and A$27.80, I really don't know. We must wait and see.

Julia · 6 April 2006

SP up $1.22 to $21.40 this afternoon.

Julia

noirua · 7 April 2006

Rinker finished on the NYSE at US$79, up US$5.82. The US sentiment index rose to 83.

michael_selway · 7 April 2006

noirua said:
Rinker finished on the NYSE at US$79, up US$5.82. The US sentiment index rose to 83.

does US follow AUS, or AUS follow US?

thx

MS

noirua · 8 April 2006

michael_selway said:
does US follow AUS, or AUS follow US?

thx

MS

Today the US market followed Aus, falling from the previous close of US$79 to US$76.80 about 3 hours before the close.

michael_selway · 16 April 2006

noirua said:
Today the US market followed Aus, falling from the previous close of US$79 to US$76.80 about 3 hours before the close.

Ok yep thanks, thats what i thought

Btw updated consensus forecasts on Comsec

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 62.8 106.0 132.8 149.9
DPS 21.0 34.6 40.5 45.6

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-06 106.0 19.7 68.9%
Year Ending 30-03-07 132.8 15.7 25.3%

CONTRIBUTING ANALYSTS
ABN AMRO, CREDIT SUISSE - AUSTRALIA, UBS, E.L. & C. BAILLIEU STOCKBROKING LTD., MERRILL LYNCH (INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH), MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES, GOLDMAN SACHS JB WERE, J.P. MORGAN, CITIGROUP, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES

was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 62.8 100.3 127.6 141.8
DPS 21.0 35.0 43.6 49.7

Note they are forecasting 25.3% growth next FY, but CEO is forecasting 13-21% only. However exchange rates also affect their earnings:

Rinker expects to deliver another year of strong growth in revenue and profit in YEM07. EPS is expected to be in the range of 86 to 92 US cents, up 13% to 21% over Rinker’s EPS estimates for the fiscal year just ended, excluding one off gains.

These expectations assume the construction activity levels cited above and that mining activity is not significantly curtailed due to future developments in the Florida Lake Belt litigation (most recently discussed by Rinker in its 23 March 2006 advice to the market), the outcome/s of which Rinker is
unable to predict.

http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060406/pdf/3w6mf3y4jdfd8.pdf

noirua · 18 April 2006

michael_selway said:
Ok yep thanks, thats what i thought

Btw updated consensus forecasts on Comsec

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 62.8 106.0 132.8 149.9
DPS 21.0 34.6 40.5 45.6

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-06 106.0 19.7 68.9%
Year Ending 30-03-07 132.8 15.7 25.3%

CONTRIBUTING ANALYSTS
ABN AMRO, CREDIT SUISSE - AUSTRALIA, UBS, E.L. & C. BAILLIEU STOCKBROKING LTD., MERRILL LYNCH (INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH), MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES, GOLDMAN SACHS JB WERE, J.P. MORGAN, CITIGROUP, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES

was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 62.8 100.3 127.6 141.8
DPS 21.0 35.0 43.6 49.7

Note they are forecasting 25.3% growth next FY, but CEO is forecasting 13-21% only. However exchange rates also affect their earnings:

http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060406/pdf/3w6mf3y4jdfd8.pdf

Certainly looks to have a strong outlook and the way looks paved for RIN' to go on higher from here. $22 should be an easy target.

noirua · 21 April 2006

Rinker closed on the NYSE unchanged at US$79.10 ( all-time closing high was US$79.80 ), and the sentiment index reached 79 ( 81 earlier in the week ).

Closed on the ASX at A$21.55.

noirua · 22 April 2006

Rinker closed the week on the NYSE at an all-time closing high of US$80.00. The sentiment index moved up to 82 and the signal stockscore to 98.

michael_selway · 22 April 2006

noirua said:
Rinker closed the week on the NYSE at an all-time closing high of US$80.00 and the sentiment index moved up to 82.

wow nice

Date: 19/4/2006
Author: Henry Byrne
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 17

Shares in US-based, Australian-listed construction materials group, Rinker, hit a record $A21.94 on 6 April 2006. Since then they have eased back, closing at $A21.19 on 18 April. Investor confidence in Rinker is not surprising given that the company issued five profit upgrades over the 12 months to 31 March. It expects to report earnings of about $A740 million for the fiscal year and anticipates that growth will continue through 2007. On the downside, Rinker may have to fight a legal battle over rock mining permits in South Florida. Some brokers are suggesting the stock might be too expensive

noirua · 24 April 2006

michael_selway said:
wow nice

Date: 19/4/2006
Author: Henry Byrne
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 17

Shares in US-based, Australian-listed construction materials group, Rinker, hit a record $A21.94 on 6 April 2006. Since then they have eased back, closing at $A21.19 on 18 April. Investor confidence in Rinker is not surprising given that the company issued five profit upgrades over the 12 months to 31 March. It expects to report earnings of about $A740 million for the fiscal year and anticipates that growth will continue through 2007. On the downside, Rinker may have to fight a legal battle over rock mining permits in South Florida. Some brokers are suggesting the stock might be too expensive

Those who review Rinker Group appear to me to be a long way behind on events. The USA stock market is moving ahead and like many I think it will continue in this bull phase for many years to come - my target for the DOW 40 is 12,500 for 2006, 14,000 for 2007 and 16,000 for 2008.

There are the ifs and buts concerning the price and demand for new housing. Should the market stay on track with a bouyant NYSE, then Rinker Group with its growth prospects remain cheap.

noirua · 25 April 2006

Rinker trade at US$79.69 ( equates to A$21.56 a share, Aus v greenback dollar spot ), 5 hours before the opening on the ASX, after closing Friday at US$80.00 and opening this morning on the NYSE at US$80.22.
The sentiment index stands at 81 and the signal stockscore is down to 73. The candle reading is bearish today and the 5 day support level is at US$76.30.

noirua · 26 April 2006

Looks promising now as Rinker reach A$22, a push on in the States could see the A$22.50 target by ML passed at the gallop.

Jay-684 · 26 April 2006

sold today @ 22.01 for 55% profit so happy

seen a few articles lately (and comments here and elsewhere) thinking RIN is a little over priced.

In the Money section of the SMH today there is an article on them too.

noirua · 27 April 2006

Jay-684 said:
sold today @ 22.01 for 55% profit so happy

seen a few articles lately (and comments here and elsewhere) thinking RIN is a little over priced.

In the Money section of the SMH today there is an article on them too.

A good price A$22.01. My sleepless nights will continue as I hold on and cross my fingers.

Closed in New York at a new all-time high of US$82.50, sentiment index is up to 83 and the signal score a heady 98 today. My sell target is in the range A$26.00 - A$29.00.

noirua · 28 April 2006

http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?tkr=rin

Closed on the NYSE at US$81.41, sentiment index at 82 and signal score down to 75.

RIN - Rinker Group

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