RIN - Rinker Group

noirua · 15 January 2007

Up 11 cents at $17.94 this morning. Price at the time of the original bid was $18.70 and RIN have withered on the vine since then.

I still hold my personal view that a counter-bidder is waiting to see if Cemex fail to obtain shares on this US$13 (minus divi) offer. Cemex can't sensibly bid against themselves and may be boxed into a corner.

the barry · 17 January 2007

Interesting article stating cemex has increased its loan facility by US$1 Billion with its bankers. Anyone got any ideas as to if this stock is a good buy???

Thanx

noirua · 17 January 2007

At last Rinker are showing signs of a bounce back with a 40c rise to $18.36 in very lively trading, welllll, lively for RIN.

Cemex have until the end of this Month to decide their next move. Next move? Yes, raise the bid or withdraw, as extending it would be kind a pointless. Hopefully, no more than that, a white night is waiting to bid on a withdrawal by Cemex.

I doubt a second bid is likely to come close to the $21.50 that is hoped for by some. Probably around US$15.50 ( A$19.80 ) or/and equivalent in bidders stock.

noirua · 22 January 2007

Rinker buys " The Walling Sand & Gravel Co., Salem, Oregon ":

http://www.rinkergroup.com/Newsroom/News/

Rinker traded at $18.27 a few minutes ago.

noirua · 23 January 2007

Cemex have extended their offer for Rinker Group to 30th March 2007.

I suppose this has been done to try and force another interested party to come out of the woodwork and bid. Cemex, are thought to be embarrassed by their clumsy original bid, and raising the bid, bidding against themselves, would make them look exceedingly silly.

noirua · 29 January 2007

Rinker Materials, a subsiduary of Rinker Group, have purchased two further bolt on acquisitions; Union Concrete Co., operates plants near Knoxville Tennessee; and J.R. & Sons, in Utah.

Garpal Gumnut · 29 January 2007

noirua said:
Rinker Materials, a subsiduary of Rinker Group, have purchased two further bolt on acquisitions; Union Concrete Co., operates plants near Knoxville Tennessee; and J.R. & Sons, in Utah.

Dear Noirua, Thanks for all the backgrounding you have done on RIN. Can you tell me why the price retraced from 22.22
on 26/4/06 to 12.11 on 12/9/06. Was it the poor housing starts in the US? Also if the Cemex offer is withdrawn has the price got the legs to stay above $18 in the absence of another or higher offer. I prefer to enter on trading ranges/sideways movements and RIN looks attractive on my entry criteria at present.

scsl · 30 January 2007

Garpal Gumnut said:
Dear Noirua, Thanks for all the backgrounding you have done on RIN. Can you tell me why the price retraced from 22.22
on 26/4/06 to 12.11 on 12/9/06. Was it the poor housing starts in the US? Also if the Cemex offer is withdrawn has the price got the legs to stay above $18 in the absence of another or higher offer. I prefer to enter on trading ranges/sideways movements and RIN looks attractive on my entry criteria at present.

The RIN sp fell together with most other stocks in the May correction, which hit stocks globally. RIN fell a lot more than most blue-chips because of fears that a slowdown in the US (where it derives 80% of income) housing sector would crimp earnings growth.

IMO, if Cemex withdraw their offer, the sp will immediately drop, but more as a psychological thing ie. investors will sell out believing that they are not going to get another offer. In the absence of such an offer, I think it comes down to investors' opinions on the state and outlook of the housing sector. Having said that, I don't think we are going to see RIN below $15-16 anytime soon - even if no bids ever come up again.

noirua · 30 January 2007

Rinker closed at $18.70, up 42 cents, after reaching $18.85 earlier. The second quarterly results show that RIN are still managing to increase profits in a difficult climate in the US.

noirua · 6 February 2007

Rinker are up to $18.78, up 4 cents this morning. Upbeat broker news in the US on the last Quarterly results, augers well for an attempt at the $19 level.

Cemex must now be wondering what to do next. NYSE rules would require them to pay US$75 million compensation to Rinker Group if they pull out before March 31st.

Garpal Gumnut · 6 February 2007

noirua said:
Rinker are up to $18.78, up 4 cents this morning. Upbeat broker news in the US on the last Quarterly results, augers well for an attempt at the $19 level.

Cemex must now be wondering what to do next. NYSE rules would require them to pay US$75 million compensation to Rinker Group if they pull out before March 31st.

Dear Noirua,
There is nothing to indicate on the charts that RIN is in anything but a sideways movement. Admittedly it has moved up in the last 15-20 days but on volume it has been a little lacking , no more than a little lacking, a lot lacking. I hope it does go through this resistance. I don't hold any but a rellie does. Personally I'd like to see it tank so that I could buy a few.

Garpal

noirua · 9 February 2007

Garpal Gumnut said:
Dear Noirua,
There is nothing to indicate on the charts that RIN is in anything but a sideways movement. Admittedly it has moved up in the last 15-20 days but on volume it has been a little lacking , no more than a little lacking, a lot lacking. I hope it does go through this resistance. I don't hold any but a rellie does. Personally I'd like to see it tank so that I could buy a few.

Garpal

Rinker closed at ADS$73.00 against an all-time high of ADS$83.46 and low of ADS$46.40, Thursday. The Cemex Bid is ADS$65.00 ( minus the last dividend ).

the barry · 9 February 2007

noirua said:
Rinker are up to $18.78, up 4 cents this morning. Upbeat broker news in the US on the last Quarterly results, augers well for an attempt at the $19 level.

Cemex must now be wondering what to do next. NYSE rules would require them to pay US$75 million compensation to Rinker Group if they pull out before March 31st.

Why would cemex pull out?

noirua · 9 February 2007

the barry said:
Why would cemex pull out?

Cemex have said, they would not raise the bid unless another party bids for Rinker Group. The major holders will not accept the bid price offered by Cemex, so the bid is almost certainly a basket case, in its present form.

The possible counter bidders are sitting on their hands waiting for Cemex to run out of time. There is no need for them to bid with virtually everyone ignoring the offer.

Cemex could lose face and withdraw and that would cost them US$75 million in compensation. Meanwhile, Rinker are not allowed to purchase assets above the value of US$200 million, if they do, Cemex may withdraw their bid and Rinker must compensate US shareholders.
Cemex could raise the bid. Either way, it's embarrassing to bid against themselves.

Garpal Gumnut · 11 February 2007

So basically we are all saying that if you hold Rinker , continue holding, those who buy are hoping for a higher bid, and there is a chance that Cemex withdrawing their offer will cause the price to tank., and the charts are most unhelpful. Might be a case for tossing a coin for those of us who considered buying before the offer.

Garpal

the barry · 11 February 2007

Garpal Gumnut said:
So basically we are all saying that if you hold Rinker , continue holding, those who buy are hoping for a higher bid, and there is a chance that Cemex withdrawing their offer will cause the price to tank., and the charts are most unhelpful. Might be a case for tossing a coin for those of us who considered buying before the offer.

Garpal

Basically nothing will happen from cemex until march when the ruling comes from the takeover panel as to wether they will be given clearance to take over rinker. Once they have been given clearance i believe we shall see a new raised offer.

the barry · 11 February 2007

noirua said:
Cemex have said, they would not raise the bid unless another party bids for Rinker Group. The major holders will not accept the bid price offered by Cemex, so the bid is almost certainly a basket case, in its present form.

The possible counter bidders are sitting on their hands waiting for Cemex to run out of time. There is no need for them to bid with virtually everyone ignoring the offer.

Cemex could lose face and withdraw and that would cost them US$75 million in compensation. Meanwhile, Rinker are not allowed to purchase assets above the value of US$200 million, if they do, Cemex may withdraw their bid and Rinker must compensate US shareholders.
Cemex could raise the bid. Either way, it's embarrassing to bid against themselves.

A couple of questions:

1. Why would cemex come out and say they will raise their bid?
2. Why would it be embarrising for them to raise their bid?

Also, they are waiting till March to get clearance from the take over board till they make their next move.

noirua · 12 February 2007

the barry said:
A couple of questions:

1. Why would cemex come out and say they will raise their bid?
2. Why would it be embarrising for them to raise their bid?

Also, they are waiting till March to get clearance from the take over board till they make their next move.

Cemex have been told that a decision on "Antitrust clearance" can be expected by the end of March.
Speculation is that Rinker have been in talks with Holcim Ltd., that have been denied by Mr Clarke of Rinker Group.

2) Embarrassing to bid against themselves. ( A bit like bidding $13 dollars at an auction and then surprising everyone by raising it to $15 dollars with no higher bid being made against you. )
1) Cemex have said they will not raise their bid unless there is a counterbid.

Rinker are now trading close to A$19.00 on the ASX this morning.

Garpal Gumnut · 13 February 2007

noirua said:
Cemex have been told that a decision on "Antitrust clearance" can be expected by the end of March.
Speculation is that Rinker have been in talks with Holcim Ltd., that have been denied by Mr Clarke of Rinker Group.

2) Embarrassing to bid against themselves. ( A bit like bidding $13 dollars at an auction and then surprising everyone by raising it to $15 dollars with no higher bid being made against you. )
1) Cemex have said they will not raise their bid unless there is a counterbid.

Rinker are now trading close to A$19.00 on the ASX this morning.

So again it comes down to the toss of a coin. I have 2 lucky anzac pennies so will trust them on this. I feel , I don't know why, that rin could be a $30+ stock. Who knows.

Garpal

noirua · 13 February 2007

It has been reported that Cemex have arranged for an increased loan from their Bankers of US$1 billion. IF they decided to use it in a bid, that would raise the offer to US$14.10 or A$18.26 ( exchange rate A$1.2944 to the US$ ). More likely, they will add an alternative cash and Cemex share packaged bid worth nearer US$15 or A$19.40.

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