RIN - Rinker Group

arlee123 · 9 November 2006

imaginator said:
hey this stock was basic buffetology.
Good company, but hit down by bad market.
Does anyone know any stocks like this lurking around?

Had a look at CSR...looks pretty good to me..good potential...but...just had a profit downgrade...so yeah....anyone have any opinions ?

TheRage · 9 November 2006

I bought into CSR at 3.20 yesterday. Personally I think the share price may be hammered a little now that interest rates went up yesterday and considering the company announced a 4% reduction in EBITA. However in my mind the 4% reduction was partly due to the higher costs of the share repurchase which ultimately increases EPS by reducing the S in the equation. The problem I had buying into CSR was the lack of financial data available for CSR minus it's Rinker component. I tried running several forecasting models on 3 years worth of data and the share didn't really stack up. However when I included the pre-demerger data aswell the CSR looked very promising. So in effect I am buying knowing that some of the data I used probably belonged to the combination of CSR and Rinker. However this did not deter me from buying because I like the management of the company and CSR only has 600 million debt on a cashflow of 300 million. Therefore it would only take csr 2 yrs to pay back its debt. This is in no shape or form financial advice to buy CSR I am merely expressing my opinion on why I bought the stock. By the way I traditionally use fundamentals and forecasting techniques I am not really into charting. Not that there is anything wrong with charting.

Ferret · 9 November 2006

I thought RINs result looked quite good today and won't do any harm to their prospects of getting a better offer from Cemex or anyone else.

Decided to pick up some more at $18.61 on the closing bell and before they go ex div. We'll see what happens. At least the offer puts a bit of a floor under the share price.

Ferret

noirua · 25 November 2006

Came back to have a look at Rinker as they slip to A$18.35 after news of further weakness in the USA property sector. The market is now doubting that any counter-bid will be anywhere near the hopefulls A$21 - A$22. The weak US Dollar and strong Aussie Dollar has also put a dampener on it as well.

How much? If another bid comes, well it will be an all stock bid or nearly all stock bid, that's my thinking anyway. That bid may then have the possibility of withering on the vine and I doubt Rinker are worth more than A$19 in their cloud covered market.

Lert · 26 November 2006

Well, I've held RIN for over 12months, the dividend is more or less in the bag and the future is uncertain.. I might just jump ship next week. I was lucky with EXL with the upgraded offer and still holding CML.. the suspense is killing me.

noirua · 29 November 2006

Lert said:
Well, I've held RIN for over 12months, the dividend is more or less in the bag and the future is uncertain.. I might just jump ship next week. I was lucky with EXL with the upgraded offer and still holding CML.. the suspense is killing me.

I bought back my stock this morning at about 40 cents under my selling price. Maybe, just maybe, there's a bid coming shortly and it may well be between A$20 and A$21, imho.

Lert · 30 November 2006

Well, I'm still in there with RIN. Some nice buying support yesterday.

noirua · 30 November 2006

Rinker closed on the NYSE at US$72.50 ( ADR = 5 shares ) ( US$14.53 against Cemex bid of US$13 ) after reaching US$72.65.

noirua · 1 December 2006

A report by Bloomberg now further information is available on Rinker: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2n0qjoc28o8

noirua · 12 December 2006

Cemex are playing the slow game after not raising previous bids; the closure date is 31st Jan 07.

Would be embarrassing for Cemex if they got acceptances for less than 5%.

No need for any new bidder to make a move yet as they can let Cemex sweat.

shinobi346 · 12 December 2006

I wonder how much money Rinker had to waste making that document advising s/h to reject Cemex's laughable bid.

scsl · 13 December 2006

shinobi346 said:
I wonder how much money Rinker had to waste making that document advising s/h to reject Cemex's laughable bid.

It's big alright!!

Though it'll probably end up being worthwhile. Having said that, I think most Rinker shareholders wouldn't need to receive the document to make up their minds about rejecting the current offer.

noirua · 13 December 2006

shinobi346 said:
I wonder how much money Rinker had to waste making that document advising s/h to reject Cemex's laughable bid.

Yes that's a very good point and indicates that Rinker Directors may have their eyes off the ball as they concentrate on resisting the bid. They have to also spend time talking to the companies major shareholders and to possible white knights.

noirua · 29 December 2006

Starting to wonder why I bought back into this stock again, though it's probably because I want to see Cemex thoroughly beaten on this one. In the past they dug their heals in and won the day with offers that were certainly not generous.

Cemex have sent a reminder to all shareholders with an extra envelope, BUT failed to say how many have accepted the offer so far.

No need for a rival to show their face yet, as they see Cemex struggling away to get old Fred from his Melbourne corner shop to accept their offer with his 10 Rinker shares. They can't up the offer as they would be bidding against themselves and many would have to pay capital gains on the all cash offer anyway.

I wouldn't say that CEMEX haven't got a clue what they are doing, only that everyone else could have done better and old Fred from the Melbourne corner shop is offering help and advice for a small fee. Take his offer CEMEX as no one's taking yours.

noirua · 2 January 2007

Rinker Group trade a little over $18. It would be difficult for Cemex if no bidder arrives and no one accepts their offer either. They can't really bid against themselves and why should a counter-bidder come forward in this situation.
Red faced Cemex may have to withdraw with their tails between their legs.

TheRage · 2 January 2007

noirua said:
Red faced Cemex may have to withdraw with their tails between their legs.

I hope your right. It would be nice to keep this little gem Australia owned.

noirua · 3 January 2007

TheRage said:
I hope your right. It would be nice to keep this little gem Australia owned.

Looks as if it's taken over a bit of the USA at the moment. Hit $18.14 before falling back to $18.10 today. The US quote was up yesterday.

noirua · 4 January 2007

USA quote is up 1.2% as views become more widespread, so Bloomberg report, that the US property market has finished its slide and should firm up from here.

ducati916 · 4 January 2007

Housing will not unwind in this short a timeframe, plenty more pain to come;

AP
Sector Snap: Home Builders
Wednesday January 3, 12:04 pm ET
Shares of Home Builders Fall As Lennar Warns of Fourth-Quarter Loss

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of home builders fell Wednesday after the largest U.S. builder said it lost money in the fourth quarter, dashing hopes the housing market is poised to recover.
Lennar Corp. said Tuesday it sold fewer homes in the fourth quarter this year than in the final three months of fiscal 2005. Orders fell and backlog shrank. The Miami-based home builder also expects to record a fourth-quarter charge of as much as $500 million because land the company is building homes on has become less valuable.

Shares of Lennar dropped $1.54, or 2.9 percent, to $50.93 in midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The fourth-quarter preannouncement disappointed some investors who bet housing's slide almost over. Lennar Chief Executive Stuart Miller said the housing market deteriorated throughout the quarter and he saw no signs of a recovery.

"The housing market's lousy," said JMP Securities analyst James F. Wilson. "Various people seem to be out there saying there's stabilization or a bottoming. I don't know where that would be coming from. It keeps getting worse."

Wilson said sellers need to clear the inventory that built up as speculators bailed out of their investments before the market can recover. Stock investors were too early in their prediction that would happen early this year, he said.

Among the biggest losers in the sector were Standard Pacific Corp., which fell $1.44, or 5.4 percent, to $25.35; Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., which lost $1.54, or 4.5 percent, to $32.37; Toll Brothers Inc., which gave up 97 cents, or 3 percent, to $31.26; and Beazer Homes USA Inc., which fell $1.01, or 2.2 percent, to $46.

jog on
d998

noirua · 8 January 2007

Unwind, plenty more pain to come, well, maybe not.
The reason I purchased some more shares this morning are: The US Dollar will continue to strengthen, IMHO, and fuel and metal costs will drop for Rinker.

The property negatives, I believe, are overdone. Sure, we have a bid situation and who knows what will happen next. One thing is sure and that is, low commodity prices will strengthen the US Currency and weaken the Aussie - good news for this Aussie ASX 20 stock with most of its assets in the States.

RIN - Rinker Group

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