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Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

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There's a lot of brave people calling March 6, 2009 All Ords 3145 the bottom. I hope they are right, but I think we are yet to see the full flow on impact from rising unemployment and the retrace in home building/developments.
 
nulla nulla said:
There's a lot of brave people calling March 6, 2009 All Ords 3145 the bottom. I hope they are right, but I think we are yet to see the full flow on impact from rising unemployment and the retrace in home building/developments.
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I still belive that 3145 is/was the bottom but I have recentley sold half my position and will be happy to sit 50/50 cash/stock in anticipation of a pull back.

If it does not happen well then at least I will sleep better at night. I was over weight shares anyway. $200 in the bank and every other cent I've worked for in the past 5 years for tied up in the Aussie market. I have not lost a cent other than brokerage so thats a plus and I am still in a good position for the next Bull when ever that may be.
I still feel there is further upside but now the risk of a pull back imho out weigh any greed that I may be feeling.

Best
G
 


I thought I would post this chart which I found at Decison Point. All though the indicators at the moment are showing divergence and suggesting we are in an over bought stage, it dosn't necessarily mean we have to experience a decline to get this cleared. There has been two instances in the past few years were overbought conditions were cleared by going higher.

One must also remember that retracements of 35, 50 and 62% are common in bull/bear markets.

Wonder.
 
I`m not at all happy about this market continuing to rise as I do feel I missed the bottom of the market.
 

i'm doing the opposite. pulled half my money out about 3 weeks ago because i thought a pull back was due. Am more confident that it will go on with it now than i was 3 weeks ago so the money has gone back in this morning.
 
jersey10 said:
i'm doing the opposite. pulled half my money out about 3 weeks ago because i thought a pull back was due. Am more confident that it will go on with it now than i was 3 weeks ago so the money has gone back in this morning.
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Be fearfull when others are greedy..........

Best of luck

G
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Be fearfull when others are greedy..........


G
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i was 3 weeks ago.

Now the charts say lets go to 4400 so that will do me. Stops are in so if i'm wrong i'll take the medicine and congratulate you on picking it correctly.

Good luck to you also, i think
 
Who is predicting what about the Stress test for the Banks? Will they tell the truth and say we are insolvent or doctor up the figures and let the suckers keep going and the Dow to hit 9K+
 
Glen48 said:
Who is predicting what about the Stress test for the Banks? Will they tell the truth and say we are insolvent or doctor up the figures and let the suckers keep going and the Dow to hit 9K+
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i reckon more chance of option B.
 
All the rumors are how the banks are OK re the stress tests. Of course all that has happened is that the parameters of the tests were set so that the banks could pass them.

It is standard political stuff, never ask a question unless you know the answer.

This is probably a case of buy the rumor, sell the news, especially if the news is as good as the rumors.

brty
 

When the time is right whether the news is good or bad or even not true is irrelevant IMO. One will recall that this whole rally started with a leaked memo from Citi, saying they were profitable, i don't remember them being flush at their results but no one looked back.... Markets had to rally so companies can go to them for more capital..... when the time is right for markets to reverse they will do so with whatever news good or bad. however i have noticed that at a proximity of market reversal there is more and more member of ASF that start being unsettled with whether trend will continue or reverse which seems to be the case again. The ASF indicator
 
brty said:
This is probably a case of buy the rumor, sell the news, especially if the news is as good as the rumors.

brty
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The amount of people still hoping for bad news, shorting the market, and/or hoping for markets to hit new lows, still seem to outweigh those that are actually enjoying these gains. Therefore, at least in my opinion - there are still many waves of new people to continue driving this rally.

3 Weeks ago, the bears were 'ready for new lows', now they're only hoping for 'em :
 
Wysiwyg said:
I`m not at all happy about this market continuing to rise as I do feel I missed the bottom of the market.
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Many Bears feeling that way i suspect....even if there's a new bottom to come its still
a great rally...its like buy anything and watch it go up.

I half got the bottom..sold to early twice now...left the profits in for the longer term.

there's still some good stocks under performing the index.
 
Its gonna be some crash in a few months when more figures come out and the punters realise what they thought was correct but got sucked in.
 
Its gonna be some crash in a few months when more figures come out and the punters realise what they thought was correct but got sucked in.
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You have to see it realistically.

For our market to get back down to 3145, BHP, RIO and the 4 big banks have to pull it down as they make up the bulk of the index.

I don't see the CRB index hitting its lows again, even if it does BHP will have to go down $8 atleast and Rio it was at $29 to bring the index down to 3300. There is a lot of money behind both these now with people buying in the dips.

Likewise institutions have poured a lot into the banks. They would have to pull back 25-30% or so.

Speculation is coming into the market now, with oil going higher, even though fundamentals are weak. Oil reserves are in hugh supply.

And if oil goes up so will Woodside, Santos and Origin. These 3 between them can pull up the index if the banks go down. Add on Newcrest and Lihr these will help the index as well.

What is going to be the catalyst, the panic to cause redemptions and people dropping shares again like they did last Novemeber. Then again the market drifted in May 2008 without a catalyst so it is possible.

I have to say I think the bottom has been reached. I was expecting to see 2800 like many of you so was caught a bit off guard. Averaged down a bit, bought some underperformers in Nov and held too long and didn't have the capital to get a good portion of the upside.

I expect a pullback, but not back down to March lows.

Just another opinion. Lucky I don't have my own newsletter and charge people $650 a year to read it. Huntley for example, he has picked more false bottoms than Cramer.

Signed realistically...lol
 
Glen48 said:
Its gonna be some crash in a few months when more figures come out and the punters realise what they thought was correct but got sucked in.
Click to expand...

How much money is to be made before that happens though?

Already we have seen some great opportunities while the bears keep calling for a crash and a new bottom. Even if we do head straight down from here if you have managed your risks and trades well you should have done very well out of this rally.
 
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