Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

MrBurns said:

Congratulations on post 2000

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Thx Burnsy.

Let's break that right now as I forgot to mention something.

As of late afternoon today, the futures began to trade at a discount to the cash, the 'boyz' pricing in a fall from grace.............?

UF

Ah yes, the infallible charts, which I have posted - explain the set ups forming right now. What is it saying to you?

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they don't say much cuz I don't look at em. I trade off a 15 min EUR/USD chart and i can't care less what is going on overall apart from minor interest.

Too high, too fast, based on hope & rhetoric, and perhaps a tiny little bit of fraud thrown in.

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In your opinion....

I remember several conversations with you, and others, before this all started and there was a high degree of skepticism and ignorance. Nothing has changed for the better, in fact things are several times worse. It's a technical rally?

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I never spoke to you about this rally, your mistaken.

I'ts human nature to want to believe that things are getting better when at the very best things are only getting less worse, but there are still the underlying severe structural imbalances that caused this in the first place ie too many Japanese Yens, and now too many US dollars, British pounds etc etc

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your opinion again.. nothing true in that till its confirmed.

I have found ascending wedges fairly reliable signals of rally exhaustion?

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One is close to failing on the aud/usd daily.... they are only reliable till confirmed.

you have an opinion and so do I, is mine better then yours, no. it's just an opinion. price cant lie as it's set by the players no matter what the reason for the move, whether u agree or not. its fact and you have to accepted what it tells u or you will lose...

hope you don't let your vision be clouded in any situation you see in the markets.

i still remember u could not accept the usd could ever rally that was a time your mind was clouded and you got it wrong......

I just lost on a trade just now.. do i care no cuz the market told me to buy then it told me i was wrong that's life and that's trading.....

cheers

>Apocalypto< said:

I never spoke to you about this rally, your mistaken.

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I'm going back to 2007 (on chat), before IT started - IT is still going.

>Apocalypto< said:

i still remember u could not accept the usd could ever rally that was a time your mind was clouded and you got it wrong......

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No, I don't recall that being my stance. I was skeptical about the claim that the USD was going to have a multi year advance. After your club made the call, it then subsequently tanked to 71.....your? opinion again.. nothing true in that till its confirmed. Multi year advance? It's still at the same level it was in Jan 07.

Any thoughts other that its bull**** etc with regard to the GE and Citi numbers being better or less worse than expected?

Can we expect a rally tonight on the Dow/S&P and will that push us over 3800 on monday? Are they any other results we should be watching today?

Futures are up for now.

Best

Well, both Citi and GE have posted better than expected results.... No, I don't care what anyone's longer term outlook is, or how cooked the books are. I trade what's on offer and this might offer some more up. Let's see.

An analyst (Charles Ortel) on bloomberg tv just trashed the results from GE (and Goldman): sees the need to raise more equity: global debt to GDP ratio's still massive! Rubbery figures to appease? After all the positive earnings, beating estimates, big profits etc, the Dow is little changed from 2 weeks ago? Quants work harder please (Bollinger bandwidth indicating a sizable move soon?)

In relation to Citibank: Do you really think people will trade the reality of the news? I think they will trade the news regardless of the intricacies ('new' accounting rule).

Seems allot of people closed out there positions today in anticipation of a collapse. It may very well happen but I don't think it will be from Monday!
I agree with most of you who say it will retrace but I have the feeling it will go higher than most expect.
I think we all have the feeling its manufactured but I think the real rally will start from Monday and that's got me a bit worried. Again I am certainly no expert, I would love a retrace to pick up some more at these levels.

Have a great weekend all!

G

Dead cat?

More like a headless chook.

Over-optimistic (however unjustified) rally ... will come back it will ...

Uncle Festivus said:

I'm going back to 2007 (on chat), before IT started - IT is still going.



No, I don't recall that being my stance. I was skeptical about the claim that the USD was going to have a multi year advance. After your club made the call, it then subsequently tanked to 71.....your? opinion again.. nothing true in that till its confirmed. Multi year advance? It's still at the same level it was in Jan 07.

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yes you did, posts in gold thread...... no we called it off the 71 area after it formed a base of support and the trend down went from normal to creeping, I never said muti year rally, again your wrong....

are you a compete fool? comparing a price now to jan 07 LOL mate your an idiot....... its like me comparing the xao to 2003 or 2005 or whenever it was the current level and saying well it's at the same level and done nothing since then! LOL i am thinking now u got real lucky on the subprime call.

I did respect u UF but after that I think very little of your trading ability.

after your last reply of utter rubbish my time with you is done......

(waves good bye)...............

Reality

I like Jim Willie. Not a bull****-artist by any stretch of the imagination!

Banks Must Brace For New Losses

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1239948720.php

One must give a tip of the hat to the Wall Street conmen for engineering a reasonably robust stock rally. The Dow and S&P were led by financials. The Financial Times out of London claims ‘no real money’ was behind the stock rally of over 20%. They must mean huge short covering, enhanced by pressure tactics from Wall Street brokerages themselves. They must mean Working Group For Financial Markets putting to work some of their ‘Black Bag’ money. They must mean influenced arbitrage games from preferred versus common shares, which harmed the public but enriched the insiders. Amazing how a better financial journal on US topics comes from outside the Untied States. A movement pervaded Lower Manhattan offices to formally call in all Citigroup shorted shares on loan. Whether legal or not, it helped cause a big bank stock rally. Other ‘C’ share games were played that enabled preferred shares to serve as collateral on common share shorts, as the plebeian shares descended to $1/share value. Never lose sight of the fact that Plunge Protection Team funds came in large part from missing $1.5 billion in Fannie Mae funds from 1988 to 2000, specifically out of the HUD offices in Houston (Papa Bush regional home) and in Oklahoma City (Clinton home region), whose funds keep America strong. Then you have all the absurd giant steps backwards to permit big banks to ignore Mark-to-Market and just conjure up asset values from indefensible models, with blessing from Financial Accounting Standards Board and the USCongress. This reform?



As citizens pay their income taxes, and observe the ‘Tea Parties’ around the nation, think deeper than the many plain shallow placards with great intention. The original Boston event prompted a Revolutionary War. The battle cry was over taxation without representation, a tax levy on tea to the colony, without a voice in the King George court. With the USCongress taking orders from Wall Street and having votes bought by lobbyists, the focus should be not on high taxes or low taxes, but taxation without proper representation by members of the USCongress. The august body in the USCongress has received countless million$ from Wall Street firms and Fannie Mae, along with dozens of other firms embroiled in the banking crisis that has destroyed the US banking system. Thousands of lobby groups have taken control of the USCongress, including the Council on Foreign Relations and AIPAC. My firm belief is that bribery is the way of the House & Senate. The people have little or no voice anymore, which is the basis of any charge of tyranny.

>Apocalypto< said:

yes you did, posts in gold thread...... no we called it off the 71 area after it formed a base of support and the trend down went from normal to creeping, I never said muti year rally, again your wrong....

are you a compete fool? comparing a price now to jan 07 LOL mate your an idiot....... its like me comparing the xao to 2003 or 2005 or whenever it was the current level and saying well it's at the same level and done nothing since then! LOL i am thinking now u got real lucky on the subprime call.

I did respect u UF but after that I think very little of your trading ability.

after your last reply of utter rubbish my time with you is done......

(waves good bye)...............

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I'm sorry you feel that way.

Play the ball, not the man.
Get at ideas, not people.

What a jerk, he must be very young or perhaps just ignorant.

MRC & Co said:

Nope, still waiting for a quick come-down, but I would really like to see a spike up into the 3800s (preferably high 800s) and hopefully the S&P does the same, hitting around 875s.

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Here is my previous post of what I wanted to see for a top to this rally.

I called this rally from the start and put an end on it in the 3800s, thinking not only this would suit the charts, but thinking sentiment would change if we could hit this zone, my two biggets 'indicators'.

All my 'indicators', chart patterns and sentiment, along with this extended move needing a retrace, have now been achieved.

We will gap up on Monday and from then on (bar a morning squeeze which won't move us too much higher, perhaps upto 3815-3825s on the SPI), we will come off, with a target of at least 3500 to begin with over the nxt several trading days.

That's my call and will be trading it, good luck whatever you do.

Keep you head up Uncle Festivus!

I enjoy reading your posts.

As long as there not to Bearish

ASX 200-4200 by Friday yeha!!!

Best

G

MRC & Co said:

I called this rally from the start and put an end on it in the 3800s, thinking not only this would suit the charts, but thinking sentiment would change if we could hit this zone, my two biggets 'indicators'.

All my 'indicators', chart patterns and sentiment, along with this extended move needing a retrace, have now been achieved.

We will gap up on Monday and from then on (bar a morning squeeze which won't move us too much higher, perhaps upto 3815-3825s on the SPI), we will come off, with a target of at least 3500 to begin with over the nxt several trading days.

That's my call and will be trading it, good luck whatever you do.

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thinking along the same lines. Don't think it has the legs to move beyond 3900towards 4000, if it does find strength to push through supports will adjust accordingly as my view will have changed, but till then will stay as neutral as possible & look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight to get the XJO back to 3500s. will see.

Grinder said:

thinking along the same lines. Don't think it has the legs to move beyond 3900towards 4000, if it does find strength to push through supports will adjust accordingly as my view will have changed, but till then will stay as neutral as possible & look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight to get the XJO back to 3500s. will see.

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A very wise assessment.

gg

Grinder said:

thinking along the same lines. Don't think it has the legs to move beyond 3900towards 4000, if it does find strength to push through supports will adjust accordingly as my view will have changed, but till then will stay as neutral as possible & look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight to get the XJO back to 3500s. will see.

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So your saying you are thinking bearishly, but will remain as neutral as possible, and if it does push through 4000 you will turn bullish, but till any play out, you will look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight? What do you mean by that last part?

MRC & Co said:

So your saying you are thinking bearishly, but will remain as neutral as possible, and if it does push through 4000 you will turn bullish, but till any play out, you will look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight? What do you mean by that last part?

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Its called

THE VIBE

MRC & Co.

THE VIBE.

gg