Recession - Yay or Nay?????

[DB008]

Hello all,
l have read a few articles and heard a few people mention the ''R'' word. Speculative comments about the housing bubble bursting in the US and more rate rises is generation some interest in the "R" word.
So my question is, if one is coming, what time period are we looking at?
I am fairly new to this stock market stuff, but l wanted to ask that if one does come and everything does crash, is there anything that does go up in the market? Or do we have to play short and make money off bear futures etc etc.
Go easy on me, l'm only a rookie.
DB008 out.

 

[Realist]

I would not have thought the Australian stock market could "crash" in the near future. Because it is not overvalued, the large corporates are making large profits and are fairly valued at the moment.

Still, maybe I am wrong. Fosters would be reasonable bet during a crash. People always need alcohol!! Especially if things are going badly.

 

[Ageo]

i suspect if we were to have 1 then around 2008-2010 (after the olympics and when the baby boomers pull all there cash out of super to retire).

Thats just an assumption thow and in no way advice.

 

[ghotib]

i suspect if we were to have 1 then around 2008-2010 (after the olympics and when the baby boomers pull all there cash out of super to retire).

Point of detail. In 2008 - 2010 the youngest baby boomers will only be 50: they won't even be starting to pull their cash out of super. Leading edge baby boomers like me will be in our very early 60s. We won't be pulling "all" our cash out of super either; it has to support us for another 30, 40, or 50 years. I wish people would realise that "baby boomer retirement" is not an instant thing. A lot of boomers are going to see a lot of changes yet.

 

[Realist]

Why would baby boomers pulling their money out of super affect the economy anyway?

A few old farts taking their super out is a drop in the ocean compared to the 9% of everyone elses income that goes into super each year.

Maybe it will affect city house prices negatively and beach town house prices positively - the wrinklies for instance may leave Sydney and Melbourne and move to the Sunshine Coast, Coffs Harbour or Forster??

 

[Ageo]

Point of detail. In 2008 - 2010 the youngest baby boomers will only be 50: they won't even be starting to pull their cash out of super. Leading edge baby boomers like me will be in our very early 60s. We won't be pulling "all" our cash out of super either; it has to support us for another 30, 40, or 50 years. I wish people would realise that "baby boomer retirement" is not an instant thing. A lot of boomers are going to see a lot of changes yet.

I was referring to the U.S as the aussies tend to work a tad longer.

anywayz i hope your right as personally it doesnt bother me if there is a recession or not (its actually a good thing for me, since interest rates drop and so does the cost of many other things).

 

[Sean K]

I actually think Howard and Costello's statements about POI are on the money. Be worried. Oil over $1.00 for a sustained period will bring on recession. Depending on the Middle East, and Hugo Chavez, sooner rather than later perhaps.

 

[Julia]

Why would baby boomers pulling their money out of super affect the economy anyway?

A few old farts taking their super out is a drop in the ocean compared to the 9% of everyone elses income that goes into super each year.

Maybe it will affect city house prices negatively and beach town house prices positively - the wrinklies for instance may leave Sydney and Melbourne and move to the Sunshine Coast, Coffs Harbour or Forster??

Realist

Is there really any need to be so disrespectful towards the generation which preceded you? Your arrogance does not become you.

Julia

 

[Realist]

Realist

Is there really any need to be so disrespectful towards the generation which preceded you?

Yes, of course there is.

 

[visual]

I`m not sure if this is relevant to this thread,but my husband keeps telling me that things arent right out there,he visits lots of workshops and everywhere he goes people are complaining they are too quiet,people aren`t getting their cars fixed,they are using public transport more,and spending less on maintenance,I suppose if things are coming off the rails the smallest business will feel the pinch first,

 

[swingstar]

Yay. This year / early next.

 

[The Mint Man]

the large corporates are making large profits and are fairly valued at the moment.

realist, I have never been through a recession (and I gather you havn't either) but would it matter if they are fairly valued???
point is, if there was a recession wouldn't they go down either way?

 

[Realist]

I hope there is a recession actually. House prices to crash, yuppies deep in credit to go bankrupt. Overpaid dickheads that do nothing to lose their jobs, Sounds good to me.

Are there any downsides to a recession if you have money sitting in safe shares and some in the bank and you are renting?

 

[Realist]

realist, I have never been through a recession (and I gather you havn't either) but would it matter if they are fairly valued???
point is, if there was a recession wouldn't they go down either way?

Yes they would go down if their profits went down, they'd go down less than overvalued or speculative shares would.

And houses and other things would go down, so you are no worse off in my situation. A recession if anything would suit me rather than hinder me. My shares are fairly recession proof as well. WDC, CBA, FGL, PRG etc.

 

[professor_frink]

realist, I have never been through a recession (and I gather you havn't either) but would it matter if they are fairly valued???
point is, if there was a recession wouldn't they go down either way?

Nobody our age has mint man. I wonder how alot people out there in their early to mid 20's will go if we hit some hard times :fan

 

[Ageo]

Nobody our age has mint man. I wonder how alot people out there in their early to mid 20's will go if we hit some hard times :fan

depends on what they do Frink. If they own a small business than maybe yes!

but if you have the option of making money in a Up and Down market than i see no difference?

 

[wayneL]

Neither.

I'm thinking more along the lines of the big "D".

(Just gotta to live up to my reputation)

 

[visual]

Nobody our age has mint man. I wonder how alot people out there in their early to mid 20's will go if we hit some hard times :fan

Professor,you have been through a recession,remember when you used to say,but mum!! but dad!!!!!!!!!! and your parents used to say no,and dont ask again.
That was the recession,you might have had enough to eat,but your parents were paying 27% on their mortgage or like me 13.5%capped thanks to the Hawke gorvernment,in order to win they capped the existing mortgage holders to that figure anyone who came after that they were on their own.

 

[professor_frink]

depends on what they do Frink. If they own a small business than maybe yes!

but if you have the option of making money in a Up and Down market than i see no difference?

I was mainly thinking of your average guy our age, has an average job, may have just bought a house, little in savings, and has no idea what it's like to live through a recession. Someone who loses their job and can't find another could suffer just as much as a small business owner.

 

[swingstar]

Nobody our age has mint man. I wonder how alot people out there in their early to mid 20's will go if we hit some hard times :fan

Absolutely great if they're shorting the market.