RBA meeting 5-2-08 and interest rates

[MS+Tradesim]

So who's for what?

I'm thinking 25bps up. I think Hold would be the best bet but they probably want to be seen to be doing something about inflation. By the time the effect of a rate rise actually filters through the economy, I suspect we'll have slowed down anyway making this coming rise redundant.

EDIT: I wonder how much of the sell-off today from the XAO high is due to discounting possible rise tomorrow? Rhetorical question, of course.

 

[Real1ty]

25 for me also.

 

[Buffettology]

25pb rise for me also.

 

[adobee]

I think it will be hold.. however I think if they go up tenants across Sydney are going to cop it !

 

[marklar]

I'm sitting at 90% cash at the moment, trying to decide whether to put it on my mortgage (probably should) or into some oversold blue chip stocks, or park it in a term deposit until a better idea comes along. I'll decide tomorrow once the news is out, but I'm expecting 25bp rise.

m.

 

[moXJO]

Someone want to throw up a poll of what percentage of peoples portfolios are cash. Not that forum savvy atm

 

[Kimosabi]

The RBA is a sick joke.

The people that create the Inflation, try to control the Inflation that they create through manipulating Interest Rates...

They must have a good laugh at how stupid the Australian people are every month...

 

[numbercruncher]

Private sector figures showing underlying inflation has risen to record highs leaves the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) with little choice but to raise interest rates on Tuesday.

The TD Securities/Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.3 per cent in January, after a 0.6 per cent rise in December for an annual rate of 3.9 per cent - the highest annualised rate for the measure since May 2006.

It was also the second highest recorded in the gauge's history.

http://news.theage.com.au/inflation-figures-point-to-rate-rise/20080204-1py6.html

They should raise it .5pc , Inflation is clearly getting out of control.

 

[Kauri]

As Swan has/will say..
- We Have A Substantial Inflation Problem.... might be getting us ready..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[The Mint Man]

As Swan has/will say..
- We Have A Substantial Inflation Problem.... might be getting us ready..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Swan is, well...... a goose!
Already had enough of his buck passing

Cheers

 

[ithatheekret]

I put my hand up for 25 with another 25 to come ......... unless Kauris filled him [ Wayno ] up on his Chateau Plonk ... then we could get 50 , 75 if Kauri runs down and grabs another squeeze box of ala rusty grape

Believe it not , the RBA will be doing the country a favour , I have more faith in them than Mr C. and he was right wasn't folks ..... rhetorical ............

 

[Nyden]

Up 25, but hoping for 50.

 

[Nick Radge]

25bp has been priced in for some time and today saw the futures start to price in more. The important aspect tomorrow is the rhetoric from the bank.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

So current consensus from our friendly forum punters is that we're about to get the big finger :bananasmi
(Childish, I know)

 

[Real1ty]

So current consensus from our friendly forum punters is that we're about to get the big finger :bananasmi
(Childish, I know)

Very clever actually and in volatile times like these, why not have a laugh and a light hearted look at the issues :hide:

Good work for mine

 

[Mofra]

I have to admit to being a "mug punter" who reads the comments of the big banks' cheif economists with interest.
Shane Oliver was tipping on the weekend rates to be put on hold as most lenders had put rates up independantly anyway, with one Mac. Bank economist also stating rates may well be on hold.

The four majors all seem to be betting on 25 pts and it would be rare for all four of them to be wrong on RBA results.

 

[bvbfan]

Others may be interested in the ASX / SFE implied interest rates from the futures on 30 day bills

http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm

 

[bvbfan]

Currently at 89% chance of a 25bp rise

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Officially up 25bps

http://www.rba.gov.au/

 

[Kauri]

As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate target by 25bp to an eleven-year high of 7.00% in an effort to keep a grip on inflationary pressures. With the labour market remaining tight and much of the economy posting firm growth, the central bank is worried that a wage-price spiral might get underway as underlying inflation moves stubbornly above its 2- 3% target band at least until 2009. Capacity constraints and a shortage of skilled labour, combined with the global trends of rising food and energy prices (exacerbated in Australia by the extended drought), suggest that price pressures will remain firm without some easing in the pace of activity. Indeed, the RBA noted that a 'significant slowing in demand' may be needed to push inflation lower over time. Slower global growth alone will not be enough to curb Australia's economy as the commodities boom looks set to continue regardless. The hawkish tone of the statement suggests that the risks to interest rates remain to the upside