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If this is not a reasonal trade off, the logical extension is to burst the Wivenhoe Dam and let the whole lot down in one hit.The trade-off though for a lower level this time seems to be a much longer inundation of those who do go under because of the necessary releases from Wivenhoe. That means a lot of things like timber in floors and frames and even vegetation that normally survives a short inundation may be ruined beyound repair.
If this is not a reasonal trade off, the logical extension is to burst the Wivenhoe Dam and let the whole lot down in one hit.
... but I just can't help considering the worst case scenerio.
And I just can't help feeling that this is what you would like
And I just can't help feeling that this is what you would like
Full Supply Level (FSL) is 67m AHD (metres above sea level - dam levels are commonly measured this way).I see on that graph at Wivenhoe it's nudging 75 meters, with full supp level apparently 50 meters.
I've ben unable to find a total wall height, but the max level appears to be 225%, reaching about 192% yesterday and apparently still about 190%, and not going to scale back releases for some time yet.
Where are all the mathematicans and hydrologists... how much more rain will it take in the next two or three days, when it seems not much is going to change in terms of water levels and inflow before the 225% is reached and the wall starts overflowing?
I'll suggest that smoothing the peak is preferrable to an unrestrained flood.I'm just highlighting that I hope someone has a contingency plan for the Wivenhoe overflowing the wall, cos regardless of the recent downfall considered a bit unusual, because the Wivenhoe was already well over full and releasing water for weeks, it's probably not going to buff the effects much other than cutting the peak off a bit as I say at the expense of longer lower level flows which I'm curious to see the final analysis come June or so when the wet is over and the costs are weighed up.
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It's not about beeing gloomy or pessimestic, but prepared.
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Smurf, thank you for - as always - a coherent explanation of how the dam works.So why is water being released from Wivenhoe? The storage (as distinct from the physical dam wall itself) is not large enough to hold back the full volume of water entering it during this flood event. Consequently, some water must be released. From the perspective of the dam itself, they could let the level rise further - the only reason to not do so is that if they did this, peak release volumes would need to be higher, since the dam would not then be storing any additional water at all, and that would cause greater flooding downstream.
If I were in Brisbane right now then there are plenty of things I would be worried about. The structural safety of Wivenhoe would be well down the list unless there's an earthquake or something like that.
Petrol - I hear that Caltex has had to stop production at their refinery (in Brisbane) due to the floods. There are only two oil refineries in Qld - I'm not sure how the other one is doing but it too is in Brisbane so may be affected. Given that the floods may have contaiminated stocks at service stations etc, a petrol shortage is a possible outcome.
Food - Lots of panic buying at the shops according to the media. And of course lots of crops wiped out too, farm machinery damaged etc.
Water supply - Ironic though it may seem, but lack of drinkable water will quite likely be a problem in the days and weeks ahead.
Agreed that people should be prepared.Rings my bell, when after bringing up some possible scenarios I got the tag of bringing bad luck, because sometimes things happened as I assumed they could.
If in 1974 there was similar event and people did not gradually move away from 100 YEARS EVENT AREA, well they could build some better facilities upstream.
Not to mention that 100 YEARS EVENT will not necessarily happen 100 years from now.
(It is only statistical expression of usually rare events, but it is not set in stone)
If you are forced to drink potentially contaminated water then boil it first as this should kill the bacteria. Not ideal but better than nothing.Re food and water: already some regional Qld towns are out of drinking water as at news bulletin I heard at 6pm. Other towns were being told they must use water only for drinking and showers. Nothing else. Even with such measures, they anticipated having no water available for drinking within a further day.
Supermarkets and fruit/veg shops in the regional centre in which I live have no food available, not even any tinned products or packets of rice/pasta. No petrol left as of this morning.
God is giving us a message that he is angry with our commodities exports and their contribution to Global Warming.
First stop coal industry in QLD, next stop will be something major happening in the WA.
Unprecedented commodities export growth, comes with unprecedented environmental natural disaster.
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