QPM - QPM Energy

Dona Ferentes said:

which could catapult @Sdajii to the top of the October comp.

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Seeing this coming is why I tipped it and why I'm holding There's another announcement probably coming this month, maybe next, which should be even bigger (or will send me to near the other end of the ladder)

Well, we didn't see the DFS in October, so I didn't win. The GM announcement meant QPM performed well in October but the DFS, if it actually does come, will hopefully make November a bigger month for QPM than October was. I have 160,001 reasons to hope QPM has a good month.

I believe these guys start construction of a nickel and cobalt processing plant possibly about end of March this year, directly after the road to their site is constructed, which is happening now I believe.
Interesting stage seemingly not noticed by the market in the current share price.
I will dig deeper on this and I am wondering what his Eminence Mr @Garpal Gumnut Esq. thinks of this one with his local insider knowledge of events? ?
I see a gap that needs filling, to the upside there at $0.15 however I am unsure what caused the gap. The market was fickle back then...

frugal.rock said:

I believe these guys start construction of a nickel and cobalt processing plant possibly about end of March this year, directly after the road to their site is constructed, which is happening now I believe.
Interesting stage seemingly not noticed by the market in the current share price.
I will dig deeper on this and I am wondering what his Eminence Mr @Garpal Gumnut Esq. thinks of this one with his local insider knowledge of events? ?
I see a gap that needs filling, to the upside there at $0.15 however I am unsure what caused the gap. The market was fickle back then...

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That's some fierce optimism you have there!

They have still failed to deliver a DFS, but they've had a massive capital requirement blowout. They need about $2B in funding which is about 10x their current market cap!

That's going to make it mighty difficult to get the ball rolling!

It's not that the market hasn't noticed, it's that the market knows it's extremely difficult to raise 10x your market cap at the best of times, but this is not a conventional play, it's not like they've found a huge resource in the ground and just need the funds to set up a conventional mine to dig it up and sell it. They're pioneering a new, and importantly, unproven method of chemical processing.

Once the capital requirement was made known to the market I dropped this like the hot potato it is. I only took a small loss but it would have been a bigger one by now if I'd kept holding. To raise that sort of money in these economic conditions for this type of project is going to be expensive. They're either going to get themselves into crippling debt or dilute holders excruciatingly painfully or a combination. Dilution is obviously not good for existing holders so it doesn't pay to be one until after the dilution happens. Debt is going to be nasty especially given the inevitable delays; management has already clearly demonstrated that one thing they excel at is creating delays and failing to meet their own deadlines even after multiple delays, and when pioneering an ambitious new method of anything, delays are pretty much guaranteed, so all this together, we can expect things to run far behind the given schedule, which isn't fun if you're carrying a massive debt. All the while there will be doubt about the ultimate success of the project since it's unproven (even if it does ultimately turn out to be a huge technical success).

We're presumably going to see a big crash in share price when funding is arranged, then a multi year orphan period, very likely further capex blowouts and more debt and/or dilution, and this could well be a case where we see the price crash to 1c or less (possibly with a consolidation at some point) and then a multibagger for those who buy at the bottom when it eventually gets back up to 5c (or post consolidation equivalent).

I like the technology, I like the project, I hope it's a big success, but it just seems like a bad time to be a shareholder; I don't see any reason to sign up at this point for the chance to spend the next few years being a long-suffering shareholder. I'd prefer to just buy in at a fraction of the price in a few years.

frugal.rock said:

I believe these guys start construction of a nickel and cobalt processing plant possibly about end of March this year, directly after the road to their site is constructed, which is happening now I believe.
Interesting stage seemingly not noticed by the market in the current share price.
I will dig deeper on this and I am wondering what his Eminence Mr @Garpal Gumnut Esq. thinks of this one with his local insider knowledge of events? ?
I see a gap that needs filling, to the upside there at $0.15 however I am unsure what caused the gap. The market was fickle back then...

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I have no inside knowledge of QPM, nor outside neither, so you will have to do your own digging.

The Lansdown project where I believe QPM have a spot, has been very controversial in Townsville and particularly in relation to council, the local enterprise association and a blogger called the Townsville Magpie ( not me btw, google him + Lansdown to see what he thinks ) who has an interesting take on the Lansdown Eco Industrial Park. I have been out past it and it's an unremarkable piece of scrub.

Thirdly it has been raining quite heavily around about, so I have no idea what condition an access road started in Nov 22 is in atm.

I trust this helps.

gg

Thanks @Sdajii and @Garpal Gumnut

Your information has been very helpful.
I inputted it into my AI device and it translated it all to one word, "fear".

Hugely significant corporate news (price spike yesterday indicates some news leakage before the trading halt).

QPM has bought Moranbah Gas project (waste coal mine gas project).
This acquisition will produce revenue (profit) to help finance their TECH project and several other projects.

My choice for june; low enough SP, and the preferred choice for the VWMA weekly system
Bit of a dog but yes

qldfrog said:

My choice for june; low enough SP, and the preferred choice for the VWMA weekly system
Bit of a dog but yes

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I was surprised when I saw you choose this for June, I looked forward to your 'explanation post' here and was amused to read a short post along the lines of 'it's a bit of a dog'! Haha!

Sdajii said:

I was surprised when I saw you choose this for June, I looked forward to your 'explanation post' here and was amused to read a short post along the lines of 'it's a bit of a dog'! Haha!

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Just want to change for the sake of change I still own some LRS and do not plant to buy much , if any of qpm.
Might get a $1K or $2K
just to be involved, but not more

qldfrog said:

My choice for june; low enough SP, and the preferred choice for the VWMA weekly system
Bit of a dog but yes

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Good morning qldfrog
QPM has just received (18/05/23) some federal government Critical Minerals Development funding along with twelve or so other companies.




Have a very nice Sunday.
Kind regards
rcw1

I have selected QPM for the October Monthly Comp. Yes, I know this is not going to be easy going this month but I had to pick something .

As a little positive it finished above the 2ATR level with above Average Volume on Friday so it would be a Peter2 - 1st HVBB.
With a bit of luck it will close the gap above and carry on with it.



Queensland Pacific Metals (ASX:QPM) - from Stockhead 22nd September 23
Dr Stephen Grocott, managing director and CEO
With a focus on energy sources old and new, Queensland Pacific Metals is operating in a league of its own. And while the company’s TECH battery chemicals hub is its flagship project, there’s another asset that’s become a talking point.
“We’ve recently become the sixth-largest domestic gas producer listed on the ASX,” managing director and CEO Dr Stephen Grocott said of the company’s Moranbah project.
“In 12 months’ time, that [project] will lead us to around $200m in revenue and more than $50m in EBIDTA.”
There’s no sign of slowing down: QPM plans to bolster gas production to support the TECH project, vertically integrating the energy supply chain to achieve negative carbon emissions.
It’s part of the reason why QPM has one of the best ESG track records of ASX-listed resources stocks — credential that has attracted investment from global battery bigwigs and automakers like General Motors, LG Energy Solution and POSCO.

Sdajii said:

I was surprised when I saw you choose this for June, I looked forward to your 'explanation post' here and was amused to read a short post along the lines of 'it's a bit of a dog'! Haha!

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I'm here for the same reasons as you were back in June.
I looked at the chart before arriving here and could see why someone might choose it.
I'm wondering if it puts in a double bottom this month?
Good luck @debtfree

frugal.rock said:

I'm here for the same reasons as you were back in June.
I looked at the chart before arriving here and could see why someone might choose it.
I'm wondering if it puts in a double bottom this month?
Good luck @debtfree

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Haha, I came here to check the explanation this time too! "I had to pick something " sums it up!

I think QPM might have a bright future... emphasis on future... a long way into it. Very short term (this month, relevant to this competition) it might bounce up off the lows caused by the CR, but I doubt that bounce would be enough to place in the competition and just as likely it could since lower.

Hey, it's not an entirely bad pick though; it's possible they could announce something at the end of the month which could briefly excite the market. With huge potential in the future there are plenty of very hopeful people desperate to see some developments, and while the trend will probably be down until they somehow get funded and then after the funding crash there will be the recovery/'we're funded hooray!' rally there will be another downwards trend for a few years during construction and delays and cost blowouts etc, the huge future potential gives the opportunity for price spikes along the way. I definitely wouldn't hold it, I might consider trading it keeping in mind it's dangerous, but as a free competition pick, hey, if you have nothing else in mind, why not?

Yes I should have just taken the 1st dart pick I threw at @Garpal Gumnut - TOE

Is the change to gas the right direction for QPM? Time will tell. Regardless, some very interesting technical setups are definitely developing in the charts to indicate that this may, in fact, be the case. A volume spike of activity off extreme lows was observed on 22nd April, followed by a gap-up the next day, which resulted in a potential outside week on the daily chart. That outside week was activated earlier today with another volume spike of activity, so many traders and investors are taking notice.

Depending on risk tolerance, traders and investors may wish to utilise the local gap-up as a stop loss, or prefer to use the extreme low as a stop loss, in combination with position sizing aspects and risk management techniques. An Elliott Wave 5 buy set-up has also been noted on the daily chart which suggests that a possible target of $0.07 exists, should the resistance areas of $0.061 and $0.069 be surpassed.

IvoryWolf said:

Is the change to gas the right direction for QPM? Time will tell. Regardless, some very interesting technical setups are definitely developing in the charts to indicate that this may, in fact, be the case. A volume spike of activity off extreme lows was observed on 22nd April, followed by a gap-up the next day, which resulted in a potential outside week on the daily chart. That outside week was activated earlier today with another volume spike of activity, so many traders and investors are taking notice.

Depending on risk tolerance, traders and investors may wish to utilise the local gap-up as a stop loss, or prefer to use the extreme low as a stop loss, in combination with position sizing aspects and risk management techniques. An Elliott Wave 5 buy set-up has also been noted on the daily chart which suggests that a possible target of $0.07 exists, should the resistance areas of $0.061 and $0.069 be surpassed.




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@IvoryWolf - I was intrigued at your selection, analysis charts and prediction on QPM only to find that it rose at a very high level in late April to be returned at a very low now.
What do you reckon and your analysis (due respect as your charts appeared to be intensely researched)
Why the pick was so sharp ?

Miner said:

@IvoryWolf - I was intrigued at your selection, analysis charts and prediction on QPM only to find that it rose at a very high level in late April to be returned at a very low now.
What do you reckon and your analysis (due respect as your charts appeared to be intensely researched)
Why the pick was so sharp ?

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Great question @Miner - latest weekly update says it all - full transparency provided (recorded on Monday).

Cheers!

IvoryWolf said:

Great question @Miner - latest weekly update says it all - full transparency provided (recorded on Monday).

Cheers!

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Now, the week's stock has gone into TH for CR. Ready for a bloodshed when QPM returns totrade in

Miner said:

Now, the week's stock has gone into TH for CR. Ready for a bloodshed when QPM returns totrade in

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02806331-6A1207341

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Judging by how quickly everyone was aiming to get out of the stock (bids drying up), I tend to agree with you... I suspect that a lot of people "in the know" (i.e.: institutional and sophisticated investors) have had the 'heads up' as to the value of the capital raising and got out whilst the going was good... ahem... whilst the going was 'reasonable'.