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- 2 June 2011
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McLovin - You can actually download pirated blu-ray's now (if you have a big enough download limit - each movie is about 50gb from memory). Obviously not endorsing pirating but there is simply no way around it. I play computer games occasionally and almost every gamer has a range of shows they love and download within an hour of it being aired in america. Some local stations tried to combat this with something like the following:
"See NCIS straight from America this season, etc etc etc" and in reality it was still about a week behind the US (instead of maybe a month or more previously).
As McLovin said unless you have scale like ebay/facebook/amazon you've really got no chance. And you don't just get scale overnight unless you go about things in a way that is efficient and something nobody else does. You look at facebook, twitter, instagram, ebay - they are all about speed and efficiency.
Something I've been thinking about recently is just how much longer companies like CRZ/REA/SEK can remain profitable. It wouldn't surprise me at all if in ~5 years time SEK is significantly less profitable in Australia, on a margin and absolute basis. That's why they're trying to diversify their revenue base in places like China and Brazil. Maybe it's already happening, ANZ job ads has been weak for months but unemployment hasn't really moved, is it possible they're missing ads on things like Gumtree
Hard to get growth when each year more and more people simply pirate.
McLovin - You can actually download pirated blu-ray's now (if you have a big enough download limit - each movie is about 50gb from memory). .
Completely off topic but I think they are going to be OK. They are all established in their respective sector and have some diversification going on. Each have a clear No.2 competitor on their tail (Carsguide / Domain / CareerOne). It would take someone a lot of money and a long time to butt in what's inherently a small Australian market. Monster jobs was here not long ago and they barely made a splash.
However, I think while their earnings has some resilience, their valuation will be under-threat in the next 2-3 years. They can't trade on PE 18-22x for very much longer, when most of the growth at home would be exhausted.
SEEK published its internet job ads data for November today. The number of new job ads declined 3.6% m/m following a 2.7% fall in October. SEEK job ads are now 21% lower than the peak in April last year (-16.1% over the year to November) and have fallen in each of the past ten months. The trend in the SEEK data is consistent with ANZ’s job advertisements series which has declined for the past eight months.
Now over that same period the unemployment rate has barely moved...So what's going on to explain the divergence, I wonder?
Market uncertainty so no one is hiring even though no one is firing?
This is probably better placed in the SEK thread tbh.
I did a little further digging. Year to November 2011, 91k jobs created. Year to November 2012, 120k jobs created. But they're reporting a 16% fall over the same period in job ads.
Interesting times we live in.
This is probably better placed in the SEK thread tbh.
Anyone had much to do with these guys? I own 139,xxx odd shares and am unsure as to where they might be headed / what to look out for? Im still green to the market so any tips would be muchly appreciated!
Cheers..
The net worth of these guys is still way too low to invest although the model is good. Delivery of the service in Australia is still primitive and struggling for customer base. I'd dump shares and chase Netflix. Has a huge market and much more established although not in Australia yet.
Undervalued stock with positive announcements and large volume trading
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