Profit Downgrades

ALLIED BRANDS (ABQ) down 7c to 24c. The operator of the Baskin-Robbins and Saint Cinnamon franchise brands warned last night that earnings for the eight months to June would be 25 to 30 per cent lower than prospectus forecast.

I do not hold.

HUDSON TIMBER PRODUCTS (HTL) warned it is likely to report a loss of $5.4 million for the year.

I do not hold.

SDI has issued a big profit downgrade.

ABN Amro has reduced target SP to $0.61 from $1.25.

In Dec. 2004, the target SP was $2.10 by ABN Amro.

I do not hold.

Investor said:

AVJ AVJenning...This company almost collapsed during the last economic recession. From memory, it was bailed out by investors from Singapore.

I do not hold.

Click to expand...

Does anyone have a long term chart of this stock covering the last recession? My broker only supplies past 10 years worth of data.

Emperor Mines' (EMP), which lost $5.8 million in the first half to December 31, today warned it expected to lose more than $18 million in the second half and incur a deficit for the full June 30 year of about $24 million.

I do not hold. If anyone here holds, this is now in the "flying with one wing and a prayer" classification.

RHD issued a profit downgrade today.

I do not hold.

Cheviot Bridge Ltd (CVB) today announced a reduced profit forecast for
the seven months to June 2005.

The year-end EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $1,050,000
to $1,100,000 while net profit before litigation costs is expected to be
within the range of $400,000 to $450,000 against a prospectus forecast
of $984,000.

I do not hold.

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Carter Holt Harvey Ltd., the biggest lumber maker in Australia and New Zealand, may miss its earnings forecast as a record-high New Zealand dollar and a drop in Australian construction erode earnings.

Carter Holt, whose stock slid 24 percent the past year, posted a 19 percent decline in first-quarter profit.

I do not hold.

Just Group Ltd today warned earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) for the year to July 31 would be in a range of $67 million to $73 million.

This compares with previous guidance of EBITA exceeding $80 million and the prospectus forecast of $73 million.

I do not hold.

Argus Solutions (ASV) is embarking on a restructuring program.

"The likelihood is that this year's revenues will be lower than previously advised."

I do not hold.

Cellnet Group Ltd. fell 19 cents, or 15 percent, to A$1.12. The mobile telephone wholesaler said yesterday full-year net income will fall to between A$7.3 million ($5.53 million) and A$7.5 million because of a ``general downturn'' in the retail sector. Last year Cellnet had net income of A$9.1 million.

I do not hold.

VLL - the ink had hardly dried from the last profit downgrade

markrmau said:

VLL - the ink had hardly dried from the last profit downgrade

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Yes, the last episode was merely 9/5/05. Now 2 weeks later, here is what it has to say:

The Directors of Village Life Ltd (VLL) request a voluntary suspension of trading of VLL shares with immediate effect.

The Directors have become aware of information that leads them to believe that the financial forecasts announced to the market on 9 May 2005 for the year ending 30 June 2005 will not be achieved. The Directors believe that the voluntary suspension is necessary until they can provide clarity to the market
about the financial performance of the company for this period.

Background – arrangements with ING
On 9 May 2005, the Directors announced a revised forecast net profit after tax for the financial year ending 30 June 2005 of between $4.5 million and $4.7 million.

This was announced in conjunction with a significant transaction with ING Real Estate Investment Management Australia Pty Ltd (“ING”) and was based on a proposal to sell 10 new villages to the Village Life Trust (“VTR”), partly financed by a placement to ING of approximately 15% of the issued units in VTR. That placement was made last week. As foreshadowed in the 9 May 2005 announcement ING has requested VLL to convene a meeting to consider ING’s appointment as responsible entity of VTR.

Pending the unitholder meeting, VLL in its capacity as responsible entity of the Village Life Trust today appointed ING to provide management services to VTR, subject to approval from the Trust’s financiers.

The forecasts released by the Directors on 9 May 2005 included a contribution from the anticipated sale of 10 new villages to VTR. The Directors, in preparing the forecasts, assumed certain development and construction costs, and those assumptions were reviewed by a Quantity Surveyor.

The Directors subsequently received construction tenders for the development of a village at Sunshine Ave, Victoria, one of the properties that were to be sold to VTR. The construction costs included within that tender were substantially higher than those assumed by the Directors. As a result of these cost increases, the Directors have concluded this property is uneconomic to develop in accordance with the current development plan.

The Sunshine Ave property was designed to be a larger, two-storey village with the capacity for 182 units. A multi-storey development at Bribie Island, Queensland had previously been developed by a Village Life licensee developer at a much lower cost.

Multi-storey villages were also planned for two other properties proposed to be sold to VTR (Sydenham, Victoria, and Welcome Inn 2, Tasmania).

Although construction tenders are yet to be received for those properties, it now appears likely that similar higher costs may eventuate. Therefore,
three of the proposed properties may not be able to be delivered to VTR under the current development plan.

The development plans for the villages at Sydenham, Sunshine Ave, and Welcome Inn 2 are currently being reviewed to ensure that they become viable projects for the company in FY06.

As a result, the revised net profit forecast of $4.5 million to $4.7 million for the financial year ending 30 June 2005 will not be achieved.

National footwear and apparel retailer and wholesaler COLORADO (CDO) group today announced that while it was not adjusting its year-end earnings guidance, a subdued start to the year meant it was unlikely to produce results in excess of forecasts.

Managing Director Mr Webb confirmed Q1 earnings were marginally below internal forecasts and sales were flat, reflecting difficult market conditions and a late start to winter.

"With Q1 representing less than 10% of the year's profit however, the earnings shortfall is not material and in itself does not justify any change to our full year earnings guidance," he told the company's annual meeting today.

"We still believe we are a good chance of achieving a 10% increase on last year's adjusted NPAT of $42.6 million.

"We accept however that the market conditions have changed which has made the task more difficult.

"We have already taken action against the changed conditions so we are prepared for the second half, particularly the all important Christmas quarter when the majority of our profit is made."

Mr Webb said the company remained focused in 2005 on implementing strategies to improve top line sales through organic growth and increased scale while maximising system benefits from its new retail merchandising system, RETEK, to lower operating costs.

"A significant increase in capital expenditure for stores of $8 million will see us open around 30 stores and refurbish up to 100 stores which should stimulate customer traffic particularly in the second half,” he said.

Mr Webb said that in line with expectations, the first half results would be affected by IFRS accounting policy changes, the change from retail to cost accounting for inventory, a prior year one off currency benefit, and some unusual one off costs including legal, due diligence and RETEK.

"We budgeted first half earnings to be down by around $4.5 million on the record $19 million prior half year result," he said.

"Given the difficult trading conditions we may fall a little short of that target although a lot still depends on the next two months' trading."

Hmmm ... no fast and furious selling of CDO following the expertly worded profit downgrade warning?

Either the selling has already been done or most of the investors are retail investors.

I do not hold.

Here is another downgrade today:

Following a review of unaudited management accounts to 30 April the Board has revised down the Supply Network Ltd (SNL) full-year profit forecast to between 5.0c and 5.5c a share.

This is below indications given at the November AGM of a similar result to that of 2004 (6.2c).

I do not hold.

And another one:

Gregory Australia Ltd (GIL) today warned its anticipated loss for the year ending June 30 would be in the range of $1.5 to $1.75 million.

This follows one-off charges of about $2.8 million ($750,000 cash impact and $2.05m non-cash impact) due to a reorganisation of certain aspects of the company, in particular the Pluto business bought in April 2002, and a review of assets.

Chairman Mr Richard Sealy said all the key stakeholders of the company remained supportive and agreed with the decisions taken by directors.

Excluding the one-off costs, the company would have been trading in profit for this year.

"The reorganisation has removed significant recurring operating expenditure and highlights that the underlying profitability of Gregory Australia is intact," Mr Sealy said.

"This gives the directors confidence that the company will return to profitability in 2005/06 financial year with considerably improved performance as a result of the benefits gained, particularly from the reorganisation of Pluto."

Shares in Gregory fell 0.5c to 22.5c today. I do not hold.

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM) today warned profit for the 2005 and 2006 financial years would be affected by the late start and slower-than-anticipated ramp-up at its Telfer mine, which was reported in the company's March quarter report (released April 20).

In addition, volatility in the level of inventory of copper concentrate expected to be held at June 30, may also have an impact on the result.

The company says it will continue to take steps to minimise inventory levels at all sites but it currently estimates full-year net profit for 2005 will be in the range of $130 to $145 million.

This compares with the net profit of $122.9 million in 2004.

In the 2006 year Newcrest expects to produce between 1.7 and 1.8 million ounces of gold and between 110,000 and 120,000 tonnes of copper metal, compared with the forecast 2005 figures of almost 1.2 million ounces of gold and more than 90,000 tonnes of copper metal.

The new Telfer mine is expected to contribute more than 800,000 ounces of gold and 55,000 tonnes of copper in 2006.

The concentrator at Telfer continues to outperform in terms of tonnage treated and additional open-pit mining equipment will be mobilised to the Telfer mine to maintain the high tonnage rates.

In 2006, the Toguraci production is expected to be similar to 2005 but at Ridgeway the mine grade will fall, as previously flagged, to an average of 2.35g/t, resulting in lower production from that mine in 2006. Cracow production is expected to be as anticipated.

Higher cash costs, higher interest charges and expected lower copper prices will further offset the increased revenue from Telfer and hit the 2006 profit.

The company says its commitment to the conversion of resources to reserves is being maintained.

When appropriate work is completed, significant reserve increases are expected in 2005 and 2006 in both the Cadia East and Kencana projects.

Shares in Newcrest fell $1.39 to $13.46 this morning.

I do not hold.

NCM also released an update today on the fire and explosion in the Telfer mine. Price closed at $13.24.

GP

Im scared of what will happen to my 2000 multiplex shares tomorrow. After their announcement today

The price will plunge.

What you need to decide is whether you exit and take the loss now or risk further losses down the track.

As it is your money, you will need to make that decision yourself.

Sydney - Monday - May 30: (RWE Australian Business News) -

Multiplex Group has revised its forecast aggregated group profit after
tax and before stapling eliminations for FY2005 to $170 million.

This compares to previous guidance of $235 million, which
specifically excluded the accounting impact of Multiplex's investment in
Duelguide.

The forecast result has been affected substantially by the
Wembley National Stadium project and the accounting impact of
Multiplex's investment in Duelguide.

This can be reconciled with the earlier guidance as follows:
* Previous guidance $235m
* Accounting impact of Duelguide investment (after tax) ($18m)
* Additional Wembley writedown (after tax and indemnity) ($41m)
* Other ($6m)
* Leaving $170m.

Multiplex has made a pre-tax provision on its Wembley National
Stadium project in the United Kingdom of 24 million pounds ($59
million pre-tax or $41 million after tax), from a previous break-even
position.

As previously advised, Multiplex completed a detailed review of
program and costs relating to Wembley National Stadium in February.

Following that review, Multiplex recognised a material increase
in the expected cost to complete the project and subsequently wrote the
project back to a break-even position.

At that time, the scheduled completion date was December 2005.

Multiplex has introduced various enhanced risk procedures since
February, including a process whereby all of its major construction
contracts (exceeding $100m contract value) are to be subjected to an
additional internal review on a regular basis.

Most particularly, an internal peer review has been undertaken
on the Wembley project.

This review has highlighted that the productivity levels that
had been assumed previously are not currently being achieved.

The peer review has concluded that while Wembley is now expected
to be completed by the end of March 2006, in time for the FA Cup Final
to be played in May 2006, the costs associated with completion of this
program are anticipated to have further increased which is expected to
result in a loss on the project.

Multiplex anticipates being able to commence a staged handover
of the project to its client in January 2006.

Multiplex estimates the loss in relation to Wembley to be 45
million pounds ($109 million) excluding the $50 million Roberts Family
indemnity, announced in February 2005.

As a result of the review, Multiplex is now recognising a
pre-tax provision on the project of 24 million pounds ($59 million
pre-tax or $41 million after tax) including allowance for receipt of the
Roberts Family indemnity.

This position assumes no change in the level of claims
recoveries previously advised.

Multiplex Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Mr
Andrew Roberts, said: "The Wembley result is unacceptable and completely
overshadows the strong results from all other parts of the business.

"Since February, we have implemented a range of measures to
isolate and address problems at Wembley including a peer review that has
just completed, the appointment of new senior management and new risk
management procedures.

"However, this latest result is extremely disappointing and we
acknowledge it will take some time to earn back investors' confidence.

"Despite the disappointing revision to our earnings forecasts,
all other operating divisions within the company and Multiplex Property
Trust continue to perform at or above expectations.

"We have completed a review of a significant number of major
projects and no material issues have been identified other than
Wembley," he said.


I do not hold.