pixel
DIY Trader
- Joined
- 3 February 2010
- Posts
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- 345
I routinely run a special scan across the entire ASX, trying to pick up just this kind of stocks that look like having found a bottom and about to reverse back up.
As I can't trade everything, there are times when many really promising results of these market analysis runs "go to waste". So, here is the deal:
I'll post the results in bulk in this thread; if time permits, i may add a chart or two with my interpretation and ideas of what I might or might not do. If members want to add their own ideas, the more, the merrier. Stock-specific discussion may be best transferred to the individual stock's thread: Search for the code and open the pertinent topic. In here, I am happy to explain the selection criteria, which some members may know already by the name of "Trinity". I maintain a website, where the basics are explained, in case someone is really eager, visit my website http://rettmer.com.au/ and use the left-most green entrance. Here is the essence in a nutshell:
In my market analysis, I look for stocks that have fallen a fair bit, giving me some reasonable targets to aim for. Momentum must be turning up on average volume or better. And the price must definitely have left the "Volatility Envelope" on the upside. The V.E. is a band either side of the price at a distance that is determined by the rate of risk I intend to accept. In my routine run, I accept a move of 1.5 average days' volatility going against me.
These are simply the parameters that I'm looking for. The algorithms and scripts are my IP.
On charts, I use the same algorithm to draw a "Volatility Envelope", accentuated by several markers. The important ones are two kinds of arrows on or near the daily candles; these suggest Buy and Sell levels, usually when a candle leaves the relevant extreme of the Volatility Envelope. Orange "Ft" markets at the top show the origin of a new Primary Resistance, marked as a horizontal orange line at the resistance price level. And then there is a green triangle which will show below the candle on a day where Trinity believes a turn of trend might be in progress.
tonight, I only start with a snapshot of today's four results. I have, however, posted a couple of charts in their respective threads. I'll also post a chart of one of yesterday's results, AFI, where it belongs.
View attachment 59981
Is this the only method you use to make picks?
Or just for new opportunities of growth?
Also is that little scan tool available for free?
Cheers Pixel
It's my main tool, but not the only one.
I'll post the results free of charge; free of obligation; free to use, reject, or criticize; the script itself runs under the Market Analyser 7 by MDS Financial, an add-on to webIRESS. They attract subscription fees.
At the risk of going slightly off-topic here, Pixel - do you prefer webIress to Pulse for this type of trading?
I spotted that percentage change up too. Looking back they do have some pointy tops and bottoms so this could be a pivot point. Special dividends going ballistic this year is very unusual and share price must be adjusting downwards accordingly? I don't like their exposure to gold mines with gold price in a down trend but iron ore mine services (Atlas, Karara, Arrium) I would think will hold out for the longer term.MLD is still very risky, but, if successful, will also offer high reward:
It's a very interesting approach, looks like it has a high success rate. Do you usually let the stocks run after a breakout? or do you have a sell price as well?
So much for that idea ...
Wherever support will be found, it's not going to establish a Higher Low.
Consequently, MYR gets booted off the watchlist, only to return if a new signal emerges.
This example demonstrates the importance of working to a consistent Plan: It's okay to trade the first impulsive leg, as long as a tight stop is used to exit at the first sign of a pullback. Then we MUST wait patiently for the Primary Resistance to be broken - and stay away if that break does not happen.
That's a valid point and applies regardless of the method you use to pick entries and exits.OR... know the stock better and don't hold in a scheduled event (like quarterly sales update) unless that is part of the plan.
That's a valid point and applies regardless of the method you use to pick entries and exits.
However, unless you know which way the announcement will swing - iow have some inside info or the uncanny ability to "guess correctly" - not owning into a scheduled event is a double-edged sword: Had the sales result been better, or had the Market expected them to be worse than they turned out to be, we might have cursed our caution - or scrambled to get on board.
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