PEN - Peninsula Energy

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Back in yesterday at 6.5c avg, gap is filled & I think this range holds some resistance. buys starting to appear which means if we're not at bottom...then we're close.

willing to take some paperloss if it dives as I think it won't be long before it goes up again.

cheers,

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

trend channel has been broken out of downwards which means caution needed. an article in the afr on the weekend was negative towards smaller uranium explorers which might explain sentiment this week.

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Looks like it has come out of the flag and has done a reversal. July 10 and 11 candlesticks created a bullish homing pigeon. of course DYOR

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

mu5hu said:

Looks like it has come out of the flag and has done a reversal. July 10 and 11 candlesticks created a bullish homing pigeon. of course DYOR

Click to expand...

From what I remember from being on colours parades a flag is not allowed to touch the ground, and this one comes perilously close.. ..
A bullish homing pidgeon ???? whats that.. ............I think its more like a McGrath-Peterson bouncer.. it will rise to around .08 before going down like it's been shot.

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Kauri said:

From what I remember from being on colours parades a flag is not allowed to touch the ground, and this one comes perilously close.. ..
A bullish homing pidgeon ???? whats that.. ............I think its more like a McGrath-Peterson bouncer.. it will rise to around .08 before going down like it's been shot.

Click to expand...

Doesn't qualify for any 'reversal' that I know of. The two prior trading days could have been a harami, but the second last day had to be a positive candle. The bounce has been at support around $0.065 ish I think. The general short term uptrend is still in tact though. Needs to keep making higher highs, or it will then start to look vulnerable. Certainly, breaking down through $0.065 will be negative IMO.

Happy to have the reversal identified explained in a little more detail so I understand though.....thanks.

(not holding)

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

kennas said:

Doesn't qualify for any 'reversal' that I know of. The two prior trading days could have been a harami, but the second last day had to be a positive candle. The bounce has been at support around $0.065 ish I think. The general short term uptrend is still in tact though. Needs to keep making higher highs, or it will then start to look vulnerable. Certainly, breaking down through $0.065 will be negative IMO.

Happy to have the reversal identified explained in a little more detail so I understand though.....thanks.

(not holding)

Click to expand...

From what I understand of bullish flags the pole should consist of 1 or more days of consecutive rises on high vol. The flag usually has decreasing vol, and be of 3-10 days duration. The b/o should occur on increased vol and the point at the top edge of the flag where it breaks should not be below 50% of the poles height. So basically I don't see a flag here.

As for the reversal, I don't usually chart the specs but for some reason I did with Pen when it was around the 7c mark. So far it has performed as expected. I don't hold now but did take a bite from .72 to .9.... Have been tracking it since out of interest to see if I can work out a method of trading these minnows.

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

candlesticks created a bullish homing pigeon

Click to expand...

From litwick.com (candlestick patterns illustrated there...)

Homing Pigeon Bullish
Pattern: Reversal
Trend: Bullish
Reliability: Moderate

How to Identify it
The first day is a long black day
The second day is a smaller black day that is within the body of the first day

What it Means
In a downtrend, the bears continue to have their way. However, the second day opening and closing within the body of the first day suggests an erosion of the downtrend. Ensuing sell-offs, followed by buy-ins could result in a bullish reversal.

Click to expand...

Then, again,

Harami Cross Bullish

Pattern: Reversal
Trend: Bullish
Reliability: Low

How to Identify it
A long black day occurs
The second day is a doji within the real body of the previous day

What it Means
After a long black day at the low end of a downtrend, the market opens higher than the previous day’s close and closes at the open. The Harami Cross indicator is more definite than the basic Harami indcator, and signifies a reversal for the bulls.

Click to expand...

Note: Reliability moderate and low. Would wait for further confirmation, imo, esp. after such a volatile week.

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Kauri,
Just curious which software do you use with the Fibs?

Cheers, ezy.

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Ezytrader, So the 'Homing Pigeon Bullish' fits the mould, with a moderare reliability? Perhaps it was confirmed with the positive day yesterday? The Harami Cross doesn't fit. Interesting, I hadn't read about this pigeon before, must look it up. Thanks.

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

A good site for candle patterns...
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bull/abandoned_baby_bullish.cfm

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Kauri said:

A good site for candle patterns...
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bull/abandoned_baby_bullish.cfm

Click to expand...

Kauri, thanks for this link. Love the 'abandoned baby' pattern. Noise!!! Anothing one I must learn!!!!! No, haven't been there yet and not planning to. That is, abondoning a baby - because I don't have any. Just soft toys...

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Kauri said:

From what I understand of bullish flags the pole should consist of 1 or more days of consecutive rises on high vol. The flag usually has decreasing vol, and be of 3-10 days duration. The b/o should occur on increased vol and the point at the top edge of the flag where it breaks should not be below 50% of the poles height. So basically I don't see a flag here.

As for the reversal, I don't usually chart the specs but for some reason I did with Pen when it was around the 7c mark. So far it has performed as expected. I don't hold now but did take a bite from .72 to .9.... Have been tracking it since out of interest to see if I can work out a method of trading these minnows.

Click to expand...

Hi Kauri,

From your graph, I don't see a reason for your prediction for your mentioned fourth wave to stop at 8c. do you any reasoning for it?

last high was a new high at 9.4c & last low was 6.4c which is higher than previous low of 5.9c, which in theory, should mean that we're on the way to retest last high of 9.4c....failing, in case of failure, should be around mid or end of 8c & most likely early 9c......don't forget.....many are stuck at the top & have to exit ...... or make some profits

if we use your waves theory, we could also assume that last wave (which you mentioned to be wave 3) could be wave 4 or 5....depends on how far will we start counting.

I always support the theory of the retest to highs regardless of the sitiuation, as long as last high is record high & most likely any failure to achieve it could be viewed if increase stops around 5-10% before it reaches the record high & of course it will be followed by the fast volume charged decline.

But from what I see, its a simple retest to the highest level reached, if it succeeds, then an increase to 10-10.5c is immenent (depends on volume) & if it fails then a high of I would assume 9c will be reached first then followed by a fast volumed decline.

but as far as I can see, there's more evidence to support a new highest high is coming (which is the higher low achieved) than to support the theory of a failure to a retest that hasn't officially started as yet

In my understanding, if we had a "lower" low (below 5.9c) then we could simply say that coming higher will be lower than previous high & a downtrend will begin!

would like to hear everyone's opinion.

cheers,

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

IGO4IT said:

Hi Kauri,

From your graph, I don't see a reason for your prediction for your mentioned fourth wave to stop at 8c. do you any reasoning for it?

last high was a new high at 9.4c & last low was 6.4c which is higher than previous low of 5.9c, which in theory, should mean that we're on the way to retest last high of 9.4c....failing, in case of failure, should be around mid or end of 8c & most likely early 9c......don't forget.....many are stuck at the top & have to exit ...... or make some profits

if we use your waves theory, we could also assume that last wave (which you mentioned to be wave 3) could be wave 4 or 5....depends on how far will we start counting.

I always support the theory of the retest to highs regardless of the sitiuation, as long as last high is record high & most likely any failure to achieve it could be viewed if increase stops around 5-10% before it reaches the record high & of course it will be followed by the fast volume charged decline.

But from what I see, its a simple retest to the highest level reached, if it succeeds, then an increase to 10-10.5c is immenent (depends on volume) & if it fails then a high of I would assume 9c will be reached first then followed by a fast volumed decline.

but as far as I can see, there's more evidence to support a new highest high is coming (which is the higher low achieved) than to support the theory of a failure to a retest that hasn't officially started as yet

would like to hear everyone's opinion.

cheers,

Click to expand...

Well, I'm no EW fan, but I've punched this out to see what could occur before the next sustained uptrend.

I've chosen around 6 ish as the bottom on support levels as it's about a 50% fib retractment but 5 might be a possibility too.

(generally speaking)

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Kauri's lines are not predictions purely a representation that most corrective patterns are in 3 waves.

However if a forth wave developes then it will turn into a 5 wave pattern of which the completed 5 waves could be wave 1 of a 3 wave pattern.
Complex wave corrections are common.

The correction will be more prolonged obviously than a simple 3 wave pattern.

Elliot Wave analysis is a facsinating subject and for those who are interested in taking the time (usually a couple of years) to learn it the Bible is

" Dynamic Trading" by Robert Miner ISBN 0-934380-83-X

and if your really interested Join Nick Radges "The Chartist" for a year or so.

Proficient understanding doesnt come easy---nothing worth doing in life normally is.
Its not something you'll pick up in a few weeks---well not to a degree that will give you the edge that this form of analysis can give those who become expert.

Its not voodoo (once you gain an understanding) but has been around since the early 1900s,Miner has taken the analysis into the 21s century.

Not for everyone but generally followed by those who notice that Elliot Analysis has a habit of getting it right so often that you just have to know more.

How much of a difference would it make to your trading if you had the ability to know before hand with above average accuracy where a trade was going to go and how long it would take to get there?

Kennas---your analysis may well be close as fib is definately part of the use of Elliot Analysis.

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

tech/a said:

Kennas---your analysis may well be close as fib is definately part of the use of Elliot Analysis.

Click to expand...

Hi Tech, Intersting without any real true understaning of EW I have the bottom at somewhere between 5 and 6 - say 5.5. Kauri's EW target is 5.3, but I have the bottom approximate spt line at 5......I should really learn some of this EW stuff one day....

I have actually noticed over the last little while that support and resistance lines are appearing around 38%, 50% and 62% quite consistantly......Self fulfilling prophecy maybe??

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Same here, Kennas.

Am currently reading Nick Radge's book "Adaptive Analysis" which discusses the EW trading with Fibs. Certainly, a refreshing style. I'd probably need to read his book a few times tho...

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Playing PEN likes playing fire. Trading maybe OK if you know what you are doing. But for investment purpose, this stock may not have the grade comparing other uranium stocks. Just be careful.

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

tech/a said:

Kauri's lines are not predictions purely a representation that most corrective patterns are in 3 waves.

However if a forth wave developes then it will turn into a 5 wave pattern of which the completed 5 waves could be wave 1 of a 3 wave pattern.
Complex wave corrections are common.

The correction will be more prolonged obviously than a simple 3 wave pattern.

Elliot Wave analysis is a facsinating subject and for those who are interested in taking the time (usually a couple of years) to learn it the Bible is

" Dynamic Trading" by Robert Miner ISBN 0-934380-83-X

and if your really interested Join Nick Radges "The Chartist" for a year or so.

Proficient understanding doesnt come easy---nothing worth doing in life normally is.
Its not something you'll pick up in a few weeks---well not to a degree that will give you the edge that this form of analysis can give those who become expert.

Its not voodoo (once you gain an understanding) but has been around since the early 1900s,Miner has taken the analysis into the 21s century.

Not for everyone but generally followed by those who notice that Elliot Analysis has a habit of getting it right so often that you just have to know more.

How much of a difference would it make to your trading if you had the ability to know before hand with above average accuracy where a trade was going to go and how long it would take to get there?

Kennas---your analysis may well be close as fib is definately part of the use of Elliot Analysis.

Click to expand...

Tech/a,

I have to admit that I've never been a fan of EW, specially into the current mining industry as fundemental events are often & market reaction is not usually logical to event, as you & many will know.....forces of an inc. or dec. or even favoriting most of mining stocks are coming from base metals markets increase & decrease & of course each company's case is differnet but mostly for instance if zinc producers are favourites for a prediction of zinc increase then all smalls & bigs will have a share of the fun, same with Uranium producers, etc...

I read a couple of books on EW & I found them to be more appropriate to what I call "basic blue chip companies" , retailers, banks, etc....
the reason I thought it will only fit such industries is that market dynamics of buy/sell is usually based on forcasted profits/dividends & general market/economy indicators could give investors indication to what's coming up.

In mining section, specially specs., there's no such "organised" buy/sell dynamics as fundemental events & speculations of what could come up is what controls the predicted profitablity of the company NOT a calculated measure of profits as retailers/banks/etc...

For instance, you have DYL which is almost 50c now.......for no particular reason other than the interest of big companies in it, EXT, AEX, PEN, AAR WMT,etc.... all these if weighted on general calculated buy/sell dynamics...they won't be worth 1c, they haven't produced 1c as yet of their expected productions even some are back to drawing board & have years of loss to come before they make any profits.

That was my idea on EW, I think its generally implemented on stable buy/sell demand with basic profit/loss/dividend expectation, but mining companies buy/sell dynamics are based mainly on fundemental events that could double the company price overnight just because another big player bought $1M worth of shares in it , not to mention that if a broker is stuck in at a high avg, then most likely it will move higher at some stage....again for NO fundemental/logical reason.

Sorry to go a bit off topic, but as you can tell, EW theory is not my favourite when it comes to mining...of course I could be wrong.

would also love to see if anyone has any example of how EW ever worked on any mining stock in the period after 2003.

cheers,

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Kauri said:

From what I remember from being on colours parades a flag is not allowed to touch the ground, and this one comes perilously close.. ..
A bullish homing pidgeon ???? whats that.. ............I think its more like a McGrath-Peterson bouncer.. it will rise to around .08 before going down like it's been shot.

Click to expand...

Playing out so far, has turned at .08.....

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

PEN is up 12.82% today. Sorry I can't post a chart don't have the software or no how at the moment.