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PEN - Peninsula Energy

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Dr Cowie note on daily reckoning.

Though he has not specified PEN by name but PEN management has released this article in their website.

I am almost sure there will be some positive reaction on PEN shares on Thursday as a reaction to his article

I was hoping Hang Seng to take the honour to publish this in PEN forum. But for a change let me be his assistant

Good luck PEN holders
 

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could someone please predict what would be the direction of sp movement tomorrow? Not interested what will be after 2 years...
 
axelord said:
could someone please predict what would be the direction of sp movement tomorrow? Not interested what will be after 2 years...
Click to expand...

Actually there was a good observation made a while ago but most didn't listen.

tech/a said:
This minnow is churning nothing more.
If you care to look back it's performing as expected ranging and will do for a LONG time.--- in my not so humble technical view.
Click to expand...

Here is another prediction:

Boggo said:
I predict that maximum it can go down from here is 6.6 cents
Click to expand...

Actually, the maximum it can go down from here is to zero.

So much energy exerted in all the postings in this thread about a dog which has dropped 57% over the last 16 weeks which averages out at about 5% fall per week. Talk about misdirected effort.

Cheers
Country Lad
 
IMHO It would be wise to avoid getting into stock until the negative sentiment stops and the share price begins to advance again. However, IMO, there's also no point in selling now because there's a very very high probability that the price will recover. It always does when the negative sentiment stops.


Current holders and people who invest in PEN during this negative sentiment phase will undoubetdly be richer if and ONLY if PEN advances and turns out to be successful. So the MOST important question is: Will PEN become a failure or a success. Yes that depends to some degree on future uranium prices (which depends on supply and demand and the presence of nuclear power in the world) but in reality it depends far more on whether PEN will survive through the difficult phase. We should stop spending so much time reading news articles regarding the future of uranium and spend more time keeping a close eye on the company's progress and financial position.


axelord said:
could someone please predict what would be the direction of sp movement tomorrow? Not interested what will be after 2 years...
Click to expand...

If someone knew that they would be a billionaire by the end of tomorrow.

P.s my 2 cents only.
 
Boggo said:
That's when it was at 6.6, 6.6 less 6.6 is zero !
Click to expand...

Sorry, Boggo, I obviously didn't read it correctly.


No, not just you, I also can not understand why anybody hangs on to a share obviously in downtrend, but maybe after 30 years playing with shares I still haven't got the hang of it.

A good example of your point is one of my favourite holding, MSB. I have on a number of occasions sold when a trend downwards became obvious and then invested the same value when the trend changed to up. Initially I had bought a small parcel of 15,000 in Sep 2005. I now hold six times this initial parcel without investing one more cent.

Cheers
Country Lad
 

Well done Miner.

I had only just opened my email to see this a moment ago.

Most of it I have expelled since the rot set in, however there is a telling point that really should be highlighted. PEN is securing US contracts (not German, Italian or Japanese) at the "LONG TERM CONTRACT PRICE" and escalated at that.

I agree the uranium market will turn, and PEN along with it. So much so I have freed up enough funds to purchase another 1.5m PEN shares. I will be doing some "grave dancing" of my own, on the shares that someone no doubt will offload to me fairly shortly I suspect.

My long term view has not changed, neither has PEN's fundamentals except to improve substantially.

Today the next producer of uranium was the biggest % fall in all of the uranium stocks. This is beyond comprehension and so illogical as to bring me to the conclusion PEN is being mercilessly sold off by irrational and illogical fear and nothing more.

This is buy time for me, I will gladly take up what others can't or won't see. This time next year I will be seen either as an astute investor, or an extremely stupid one. I believe the former will be most likely to occur.

I have done all the homework I need and PEN is going to be a great company. What happens short term means little, it is pay day that I am looking forward to now.

Some can see it, some can't...so be it.
 


hangseng said:
This time next year I will be seen either as an astute investor, or an extremely stupid one. I believe the former will be most likely to occur.
Click to expand...

HS, with all due respect mate, at the moment you would have to admit that you are taking a gamble.
The post I have quoted by Country Lad is what I consider to be a perfect example of what an astute investor would do, ie, accumulate more if you really believe in the stock.
I have added an extra 17100 PRR shares to my original outlay without spending any extra money (and it keeps the broker happy )
That method is precisely what I was referring to in an earlier post.

Do you not see the sense in that approach, he would be buying double what he originally sold without outlaying an extra cent.
Market or individual stock price corrections are much better money makers than just buying and holding even if the stock is continuing to rise, it just requires some management.

Not having a go HS, just trying to comprehend the logic based on the assumption that you are here to make money.
 
Boggo said:
Do you not see the sense in that approach, he would be buying double what he originally sold without outlaying an extra cent.
Click to expand...

There is a corollary and using PEN as an example, it has fallen 57%. This means that holding on all the way down, it will require a rise of 133% just to get back to where it was and it is likely that if it does somehow manage to increase that much, it will take a substantial period of time.

So there is the cost of lost opportunity had the shares been sold early in their fall and then invested in one rising.

Cheers
Country Lad
 
CL BOGGO and others
I will start another thread so
(1) we don't get accused of side teaming the Pen thread
(2) we have somewhere to discuss not only Pen but other threads and attitudes to them which are clearly poor trading practices--- and others can join in the discussion.

Both of you have been around long enough to have a good grasp of the topic.
CL must have had his 80th birthday by now !
 

Hold that thought boggo...Firstly I don't gamble, I do take highly calculated risks based on factual information and knowledge. I don't bet on horses, play cards, spin the wheel or flip coins. I am a risk analyst with in depth working knowledge of the sector I choose to invest in.

This morning bought my largest single parcel of PEN being 1.5m shares by simply sitting and waiting at what I believed would be the turning point. I missed the bottom by .002 and I dont regret it one bit. I had to make some rather large adjustments to accomodate this but it was woth it.

I buy and hold PEN as a long term investment, I dont get perturbed by irrational and illogical events such has recently occurred. I concentrate on what is fundamentally happening with the company and PEN is going from strength to strength in that regard.

As I said I will be judged next year as to whether I was right or wrong. What short term traders think of me now means little to nothing to me.

Each to their own but what I am doing is and has been making me a lot of money. More than any so called fund manager ever did for me.

I am also a very patient person...I look for "hitting out of the ballpark" opportunities, I am sure you know what I am referring to.

IMO one is staring people in the faces right now and they either won't or can't see it for whatever reason. It isn't popular being a contrarian investor, but it sure as hell is profitable.
 
Thats fair enough, I understand where you are coming from.

Not my way of doing it, in, out, park the profit and then back in for 3 million at the turn would be my approach.
 
Boggo said:
Thats fair enough, I understand where you are coming from.

Not my way of doing it, in, out, park the profit and then back in for 3 million at the turn would be my approach.
Click to expand...

Of which is all good if:

  1. You manage to perfectly pick every turn
  2. Have the time to watch every movement every day
  3. Are happy not to have the taxation benefits of long term hold and prefer to pay the tax at a higher rate as you go.
  4. Can be bothered with ethe need to studiously and religously monitor every trade going through to identify what you believe is the turn (refer to point 2)
  5. Enjoy paying brokerage (win or lose)
  6. Have the discipline to take losses quickly and accept they will be losses along the way as nobody picks perfectly every swing.


I actually respect (open and honest) traders who do all of the above and are successful at it. However I have seen quite a few that thought they would make a killing and simply didn't. I simply don't have the time to do so....Yet

My method isn't always successful however I am doing far better than I ever did trying to pick the next winner and trading it.

With a crystal ball I would have sold at 15.5 and then bought back at 5.6...the perfect trade. I don't know of one person with that level of skill, let alone crystal ball gazing ability. If they exist here it would be outstanding if they shared with all this great and unique skill that no doubt has made them millionaires >10 times over.

Each method has its place, both need to be "managed".
 
hangseng said:
This morning bought my largest single parcel of PEN being 1.5m shares by simply sitting and waiting at what I believed would be the turning point. I missed the bottom by .002
Click to expand...

How do you know we hit the bottom? Could the share price not fall again tomorrow? Just asking out of curiosity, that's all.
 
Boggo and Country Lad,

Interested to know your reasons for calling PEN a dog?

What is your basis for this analysis?

Is it simply the SP falling or have you an understanding of the FA of this particular CO/Sector and its longer term prospects.

I don't have a great understanding of the FA myself other than the LT need for energy sources but it seems a bit premature to be calling a CO a dog when its yet to begin producing anything.

Has the PEN story even started yet? (As an earlier contributor wrote around the time of the Tsunami)

I'd be interested to hear your views and am hoping you both have something more to offer than the perennial TA vs FA debate.
 
ob1kinobi said:
Interested to know your reasons for calling PEN a dog?
Click to expand...

Simply my description of a share whose price has performed rather abysmally. In my mind anything that has fallen 57% and at a fairly rapid rate averaging 5% per week is a dog regardless of how some people may positively interpret the fundamentals. The market has given its verdict on the company and the fundamentals for the time being.

Cheers
Country Lad
 
Yes I must say that the stock does smell like value. It appears to have been having good announcements for quite some time, but the stock has been on the way down ever since the collapse+bounce following the Fukushima incident.
Ultimately I don't see countries ditching uranium as a fuel, despite all the fear following Germany's new anti-nuclear stance. The US, India, China, Britain, even Japan have made it very clear that there will be no roll back on nuclear construction plans (although all have made noises to the effect of 'we will be more careful'). Practically speaking, ditching nuclear power is completely impossible and unreasonable.
In my opinion people are discounting PEN stock too much.
 
ob1kinobi said:
Boggo and Country Lad,

Interested to know your reasons for calling PEN a dog?

What is your basis for this analysis?

I'd be interested to hear your views and am hoping you both have something more to offer than the perennial TA vs FA debate.
Click to expand...

No need to involve either TA or FA to see that something that drops from around 15c to 6c can't be classed as a blue chip investment, call it what you like but I reckon its fair game.

Even at its high of around 15c it is still a pup.
It probably will rise again and it will probably get my interest as it did with others when it made them 30%+ on the way up last time.
I actually see its current behaviour as that of a stock that is oversold but that doesn't make it any less a dog at the moment until proves otherwise.

Specky stocks seem to have a lot of smart traders on the way up but the ones who hang on and give back their profits become investors on way down
 



I admire your sentiments hs, however as a chartist I recognise that investors can never trust all the fundamental information they accept as reasons for their investments in stocks because


1. It is false
2. It is not timely
3. It is filtered with essental information removed
4. It is embellished
5. It is incomplete


One or more or all of the above seem to operate with PEN.

It is a sick puppy and should it continue it's dowmward path it will soon be worth zilch.

Somehow I feel you are not in possession of all the facts, or else you are.


gg
 

What I don't understand is, if one is bullish uranium (which may not be correct but certainly valid), why wouldn't you just buy something like PDN that has fallen just as much but is actually producing...
 
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