Still nothing of substance on the fundamentals of PEN, and now quickly shifting to personal attacks.
Grant
Definition of Platitude: A platitude is a trite, meaningless, biased, or prosaic statement, often presented as if it were significant and original.
I take umbrage at your post.
I find it offensive. It is in itself a platitude and offers nothing constructive to the determination of dealing with PEN as a short term or long term investor/trader.
I note that you only joined the ASF in April 2011 and have contributed little, other than deride the position/perspective of other longer term members of the ASF. IMO you would do well to observe and learn until you have have something constructive to contribute.
Lots of platitudes tonight. Still no debate on the current value of PEN.
I take it we all agree that the 5.5 - 10.7 cent range is fair value then, and that we should only expect the upper end of that range if both the AUD/USD rate falls to 0.80 and the spot/term price rises to $70 USD/lb.
Grant
I TAKE UMBRAGE hahahahah this thread is horrible.
Yes all the talk about the nuclear industry is important but you can't make a call unless you do a valuation.
There are three main variables to PEN's price.
1. uranium price
2. aud/usd exchange rate
3. amount of resources in the ground
Speculating on 1 in view of recent events is probably fair enough, although hard to quantify. Speculating on 2 using PEN as an vehicle is plain silly. The only other reason for bullish stance on PEN would be if one sees substantial upside in the resource estimates. If the investor holds that view then I suppose they will wait for announcements to bring such assumption into actual fact, hopefully soon.
Still nothing of substance on the fundamentals of PEN, and now quickly shifting to personal attacks.
Grant
Fact 1: Fukishima is not the only Nuclear Power Station in the world;
Fact 2: There are hundreds more Nuclear Power stations in the planning stages for China, India and the rest of the world;
Fact 3: The demand for Yellow Cake is not going to evaporate any time soon.
If PEN can produce yellowcake, they will have a market. If they can sell it for a profit then PEN will be arround for a long time to come regardless of where they started out and what they did in the past. If they found uranium on their leases instead of gold and had the kudos' to mine it in the face of a lot of political opposition in the past, good on them.
Get over it, move on, cut the bulldust. If you like uranium stocks buy PEN, trade PEN and post your comments on the PEN thread. If you don't like uranium stocks, don't waste your time posting on the PEN thread.
Personally If there is a trade opportunity with PEN and I see it, I will take it. It owes me nothing, I owe it nothing and all the other crap is just background noise. Also all the crap about protecting newbies is just that...crap. There is a well worn expression on the ASF site, it is DYOR. Do Your Own Research.
For instance, do you think what I wrote about the RCR valuation of PEN being 5.5-10.5 cents was incorrect?
Do you agree that the market got ahead of itself when PEN rose above 11 cents?
How much do you expect the DFS announcement to impact the NPV (your best case/worst case estimates)?
I'm with Nulla...the Fundamentals for PEN are all still in place, fear is driving the SP and 9 times outa 10 that translates to opportunity.
Even though I am a little confused regarding your motives with PEN .....
Just for some balance
...
Would be pure speculation either way. Currently possibly a slight increase in the SP.
Personally I am more interested in the possible increase in the resource base over the near term post DFS, and the possible acquisition of suitable projects ........... which may well be purchased at a discount due to the perceived deteriorating fundamentals for Uranium. Opportunism in the short term by the Company may well lead to more significant gains in the longer term ............ A traders needs to balance his/her risk tolerance when investing of course.
My main motive is to stamp out the bullying of anyone with a neutral or negative view in here. I've been reading for a long time and finally got sick of it.
True, but careful you don't fall for the pounds in the ground mistake. Value is produced by increasing the rate we can sell pounds of Uranium and reducing the cost of producing them. It's no good to double our resource base if we can't also increase our production rate or reduce our production costs. Pounds we can only extract 20 years from now don't add much value in NPV calculations today.
I also think it's too soon to be contemplating acquisitions when we haven't got any cashflow yet. Nothing wrong with speculation, but where's the limit?
On HotCopper I agree that does happen, but to be honest I hadn't noticed it much on ASF.
Bullying is really just holders trying to verbally "protect" their position, which is fairly normal human behaviour.
PEN's proposed production costs are extremely competitive compared to its peers. It is more likely to succeed where other Juniors might get squeezed out due to reduced margins.
If this happens, PEN may end up in a better position in the medium/longer term based purely on supply and demand ...... None of these things can be measured at this stage of course, so its a personal investor decision on whether to take the punt.
If we are to believe the management, near term acquisition/s is/are very much on the agenda
Purchase of an additional existing resource (perhaps now at a discounted price??), would allow for immediate higher production rates and provide the capital required to speed up the delineation of our existing resources.
How does Fukushima differ from Chernobyl?
Japanese authorities have raised the severity rating of the nuclear crisis at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi power plant to the highest level, seven.
The decision reflects the ongoing release of radiation, rather than a sudden deterioration. Level seven previously only applied to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, where 10 times as much radiation was emitted.
But most experts agree the two nuclear incidents are very different.
Explore the table below to find out how they compare.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13050228.
From a charting view, PEN has displayed two nice triangles recently.
The latest, a descending indicates a probable down move to 0.055.
gg
"How much has management actually alluded to and how much has been baked in by internet pundits though?"
A few facts surounding "aquisition(s)" and toll milling:
Fact 1.
- Hartleys report 16 Feb 2011 "potential growth driven by acquisitions".
- In the company presentation PEN stated "Look at near production acquisition opportunities in areas of existing operation"
Fact 2. [/U][/B]
PEN has applied for a Permit to "Toll for others" and this is publicly available information on ADAMS.
Mostly missed by all commentators and public forums, except for those that read all available information and didn't skim. This aspect would make a significant difference to both cashflow and the NPV if successful, as it would also utilise unused initial process plant capability.
RCR Report...I don't disagree with it at all. Except for PEN to have an NPV of 5c it requires a uranium price of $40/lb, the bottom of the uranium market that has now passed. Now history and irrelevant IMO.
PEN remains on-track for completing the Lance DFS and timely permitting of its WY based ISR project, with production visibility 4Q12. The “nuclear renaissance” is expected to regain momentum, notwithstanding recent events in Japan.
Lance base case NPV A$165m (A$0.08/share; US$50/lb realised uranium price, vanadium US$7.50/lb).
With full de-risking of Lance, post commissioning, PEN NPV is A$0.10/share fully diluted (discounting a realised uranium price of US$50/lb, AUD/USD 0.80 and 10% discount rate).
Assuming a US$60/lb uranium price, post commissioning, NPV rises to A$0.13/share fully diluted.
WY is a uranium friendly state, and combined with PEN’s experienced permitting consultants, and new streamlined US permitting procedures, the company is well positioned to fast track regulatory approvals."[/I]
I still hold firm that the current irrational sentiment has provided an unprecedented opportunity. However I am a contrarian investor prepare to take calculate risk (based on knowledge and known facts) and don't follow herd mentality, nor take notice of media hype.
Did PEN run ahead of itself? IMO no it didn't and albiet not for Japan would be still there or even higher leading into the DFS and other postive news.
Can you please provide the Fundamental basis for your assertion that PEN was correctly valued by the market at 15.5 cents in February.
Hartleys Research Report
16 Feb 2011
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--wugiwethoh.pdf
Price Target Increased to 16cps
We have tweaked our model based on the sales price achieved and decreased the dilution effect of any future financing due to the increased share price. The result is an increase in our valuation from 17cps to 18cps, and we have increased our price target from 14cps to 16cps.
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