PDN - Paladin Energy

Bush Trader · 31 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
Indeed the downtrend has to stop first. Very surprising to me that PDN is actually in a downtrend so any explanation would be welcome?

Remember before early this year it was not an approved security with many margin lenders. It is now, and when the boat gets rocky many are forced to jump. This share has attracted a lot of hot mony over the past 12 months, some were buying the dips and getting out on the highs, for many others it must be over 12 months since their initial purchases, CGT Discount, Stock appears to be softining, anyway iv'e made my 65%, etc - time to sell?

If you've got a long view and can handle some red in your portfolio I would be loking at any weakness as a oportunity. It worked for me with BHP last year, when we all knew that the super cycle was not over and brokers had not upgraded their commodity pricing forward, and the maket fell out of favour with the stock and chased industrials and finiancials. This could be the same scenario.

FN Arena - Broker Reports as follows

1 Neutral 3 Buys - Average target Price $9.92 or 38.7% upside

All brokers have factored in the disappointing production numbers reported

Cheers

BT

reece55 · 31 July 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

kennas said:
Wow, dline, great find. I haven't seen this stock before, thanks for introducing it to us!! Looks like a goer!

Strong emphasis on U?
Recent acquisition of LH?

..decline only positive...?????

What the???

HAHAHAHAHA.... very subtle Kennas..... LOL......

Remind me everyone, because last time I checked lower lows and low highs constitutes a down trend, albeit on the short term time frame?????? I know we have had a pretty bearish run of trading sessions recently, but the price action is as clear as day............

PDN shows exactly why I was wary when it's share price went up to 11.00 - inevitably, the bar is set too high and Companies just can't deliver on the hype. Yes, the long term fundamentals are there, but is it really under or overvalued if they can't mine the thing quickly enough (now 2x downgrades, which now questions the reliability of managements assurances), we are now 2.2 Mil from 2.6.

All in all, it's stay well away at present IMO.........

Cheers

Sean K · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Could Borshoff be talking up takeover spec to lift his share price?

The Australian said:
Paladin a tempting target
Kevin Andrusiak, Resources | August 01, 2007

PALADIN Resources managing director John Borshoff admits the recent plunge in the value of Paladin scrip might tempt a potential suitor.

Paladin has shed about 16.3 per cent of its market capitalisation since July 20, as word filtered out about a production downgrade and the uranium spot price slipped lower.

From a record share price of $10.80 in October, Paladin has lost about $2.2 billion in market capitalisation.

"The price weakness might tempt somebody," Mr Borshoff said. "I had no worries up until six months ago and I still believe I don't have anything major to worry about.

"We have had defence advisers on the matter for the past 18 months. But you can't deny there seems to be a rationalisation of the whole uranium market at the moment."

Paladin's biggest threat could come from French uranium giant Areva, which recently paid about $US2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) for South African-based UraMin, which has its flagship project in Namibia with an inferred resource of 139 million pounds.

Paladin's Langer Heinrich operation has an inferred resource of nearly four times that amount, at much higher grades.

Areva has made no secret of its intentions to double uranium production capacity to 10,000 tonnes a year by 2010.

Despite a shock announcement on Monday that Paladin would fall well short of production targets for the six months to the end of June, Mr Borshoff said the company was well on track to be at full production in 2008, producing 1180 tonnes of uranium.

"You do have to work on your credibility after a production downgrade," he said.

"Full quota shouldn't be a problem next year. We produced in July what we produced over the previous six months."

Deutsche Bank analysts Brendan James and Brendan Fitzpatrick said in a note to clients that commissioning problems as Paladin moved from explorer to producer were to be expected.

"What we are more concerned about, however, is that the company has not yet attained production capacity, despite previous guidance to that effect," the analysts said.

Paladin's shares closed 25c lower yesterday at $7.18.

Looks more and more a possibility by the day. Maybe watch for some unusual accumulation/volume for hints. Could be worth a nice stag gain if an offer does come in. I wouldn't expect a one horse race either, as PDN do have some outstanding long term potential projects.

Damuzzdu · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

reece55 said:
HAHAHAHAHA.... very subtle Kennas..... LOL......

Remind me everyone, because last time I checked lower lows and low highs constitutes a down trend, albeit on the short term time frame?????? I know we have had a pretty bearish run of trading sessions recently, but the price action is as clear as day............

PDN shows exactly why I was wary when it's share price went up to 11.00 - inevitably, the bar is set too high and Companies just can't deliver on the hype. Yes, the long term fundamentals are there, but is it really under or overvalued if they can't mine the thing quickly enough (now 2x downgrades, which now questions the reliability of managements assurances), we are now 2.2 Mil from 2.6.

All in all, it's stay well away at present IMO.........

Cheers

Reece55,

Ahhh a downtrend, you mean something like this i'm guessing....mmmmmmmmm

PDN down again in Canada o/nite and with DJIA tanking again, PDN will be in big danger of testing the important $7 support level.

If PDN continues to go lower, some will say "Oh, this might bring out some predator", but they are going to want to buy PDN at the cheapest price possible, so why would they buy up shares to drive the price higher??? Just let it keep falling and then bid 20% over the current share price at the time and watch the acceptances flood in..

Cheers
Muzz

nizar · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

kennas said:
Wow, dline, great find. I haven't seen this stock before, thanks for introducing it to us!! Looks like a goer!

Strong emphasis on U?
Recent acquisition of LH?

..decline only positive...?????

What the???

LOL.
Hahaha, great call bro.
I was gonna say the same thing.

Solid downtrend this one.

I thought it was a sure buy after the Feb correction, and that it would run like a champion once the correction was over.... lol. How wrong was I?

Good thing I use stops

dlineinvestor · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

What fun it is to be the centre of attention, I did post an explanation for the lame text in post #976 but to add some humour into our thread the explanation post was deleted by Kenna's, of course only to add to the fun. Consequently those that replied were lead wrongly to believe the reason for the text.
The copied text was to bypass typing up 100 characters in order to post the chart in a hurry. (not very clear I apologise) and not good judgement on my part. A lesson learned and a lesson for all.

PhoenixXx · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Damuzzdu said:
PDN down again in Canada o/nite and with DJIA tanking again, PDN will be in big danger of testing the important $7 support level.

PDN really makes my day...even broke the $7 support level. Hmmmh...what's the next support level we are looking then

Morgan · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Oh dear- into the sixes now- so much for investing in a U producer rather than an explorer.
Strapping on the parachute and watching............:couch

Sean K · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

dlineinvestor said:
What fun it is to be the centre of attention, I did post an explanation for the lame text in post #976 but to add some humour into our thread the explanation post was deleted by Kenna's, of course only to add to the fun. Consequently those that replied were lead wrongly to believe the reason for the text.
The copied text was to bypass typing up 100 characters in order to post the chart in a hurry. (not very clear I apologise) and not good judgement on my part. A lesson learned and a lesson for all.

he he. And thanks for the PM. :chainsaw:

I deleted that second post because it made absolutely no sence whatsoever. Many appologies if it did!

Your first post was rather funny though. PDN 'specialising in uranium'. LOL.

By the way, please read the 100 character rule. It includes a clause about padding out posts to satisfy the rule, which results in a 2 point infraction!!! You probably shouldn't be admitting that right now.

Now, PDN, what 'news' do you have for us??

Ken · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I am no expert but looking at the chart, next support below $7 is $5.00

Can't see PDN at $5 considering the price of uranium.

Sean K · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PhoenixXx said:
PDN really makes my day...even broke the $7 support level. Hmmmh...what's the next support level we are looking then

$7.50 was probably more important IMO. Now there looks to be support in 50c increments on the way down to $5, which should be a floor, if it gets there. Impossible to call right now. Much depends on the overall market atm. Good luck to longs.

PhoenixXx · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

kennas said:
Good luck to longs.

Thx...badly need it atm. Anyway, talking about the $7.50 support.
It was broken easily down to $7.20-ish on Monday (30/7) when the ann came out about the downgrade in Langer Heinrich.
So far...i haven't seen any light coming out soon of PDN. Will keep holding though

shag · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

kennas said:
$7.50 was probably more important IMO. Now there looks to be support in 50c increments on the way down to $5, which should be a floor, if it gets there. Impossible to call right now. Much depends on the overall market atm. Good luck to longs.

i wish i had listened more to yr downtrend talk kennas. i inherited my stock from summit so thats my excuse for today, tho i bought more unfortunately.
what books/web pages do u suggest to learn charting, i'd beter learn about downtrends and support levels esp. uranium is still essential to getting greenhouse gasses down untill some other energy source is cracked(fusion).

Damuzzdu · 1 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Ken said:
I am no expert but looking at the chart, next support below $7 is $5.00

Can't see PDN at $5 considering the price of uranium.

Ken,

Next major support is at $5.50, although today's low gives some minor support.

This has now broken all support lines and is now trading well outside the channel that PDN had formed over the past 3.5 months, since the double top.

Can't see PDN at $5.00...mmmm....Now we are not living down the back of the garden with the pixies are we Ken ???....mmmmm. And, if the U price keeps going down, what then? Sentiment is driving the price action in PDN right now and ain't good.

Will it bounce, well I guess it will at some stage but when, that is the $64K question.?

Cheers
Muzz

Sean K · 2 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Somewhere between here and $5.00 you could possibly anticipate some sort of consolidation, IMO. This has crept on to the list of quite a few managers recently, and with U still looking promising long term hmmmmm....

Brokers opinions:

Broker..................date..............reco...........12 month target

Macquarie ........... 31-Jul-07 .... Neutral ...... $7.75
UBS ................... 31-Jul-07 .... Buy 2 ........ $10.70
Deutsche Bank .....31-Jul-07 ..... Buy ........... $9.12
ABN Amro ........... 13-Apr-07 ... Buy .......... $12.10

That's quite a variation on the current price.

hacheln_mice · 2 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Those who are still long this thing must have balls of steel. Talk about fighting the trend.

The best the PDN bulls can hope for now is mass capitulation.

shag · 2 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

the question is will it shoot up as fast as its fallen, and for as long?
did anyone notice today how most of the miners at least lost all their gains(including paladin) and well below mid afternooon, only to shoot back up all in a matter or under ten minutes. the warrants seemed to be pulled due to the volatillity.
i've gone in even deeper, so hope the downtrend is a goner.

Uncle Festivus · 3 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Well I have no knowledge of the U industry or an in depth knowledge of PDN for that matter but there comes a point in any stock where it's obviously oversold. Judging by the negativity in general going around on this stock, it must be a contrarians pick of the year almost? The players are watching this one I think. Forget about your TA support points & have a look at the fundamentals again.

Ken · 3 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Would you say the same thing about Progen when it was at $6 after it had been $10, and still with a price target of $14.

Current price of PGL $3.60.

aussienorm · 3 August 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

hacheln_mice said:
Those who are still long this thing must have balls of steel. Talk about fighting the trend.

The best the PDN bulls can hope for now is mass capitulation.

As a user of charts to predict a "turning point",i am constantly amazed as to how "gaps" are usually "Filled",..........PDN has a huge gap at $4.93 to 5.35, have made some cash on this and SMM in the past 2 years and sold all around $9. Any comment from other chartist.........I am Suprised it could get back to this level.Regard to all,

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