PDN - Paladin Energy

dlineinvestor · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Joules,

My chart shows neither my entry nor exit, why I posted PDN with the price oscillator is because I use it to show me when a share starts to turnaround.
I use other another sytem for entries. I find the price oscillator less volatile so when a cross over occurs its fairly substantial.
The support line of 8.42 shows where buyers have come in lately to shore up the S/P from falling further. This may be broken or may hold. I labeled "shaky support" because of current market conditions here and the US.

Cheers
dline

Kauri · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

At the moment the volume and price range/movement isn't telling me too much apart from that there is a lot of indecision and it would seem that there is "Harvey Norman" activity by the larger players??
In (my) perfect world we would have a fake of the horizontal support that closed up at its high on high buying volume that also co-incided with the typical larger W(4) and also the typical intermediate W5 and that also came close to the trading chanell. If a strong buyer supported minor W1-W2 then happened I would probably be in with my ears pinned back.. : .. Now back to work on my Lotto system...

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Kauri said:
At the moment the volume and price range/movement isn't telling me too much apart from that there is a lot of indecision and it would seem that there is "Harvey Norman" activity by the larger players??

erm.........so does that mean you think that "some" people are indecisve and some are not? if so, then who is being indecisive and who is not?

there is a very large bar at the bottom of the chart........what is that telling you?

reece55 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Joules MM1 said:
What's the volume telling you? Who is the buyer and who is the seller?

that the m/a "signal" shows a bullish divergence...........my question is; when is a divergence merely a signal of lessening sells versus increasing buy-up pressure? Is the divergence really a bullish signal (revert to strong trend up) or are we seeing a level where the largest players, who have assisted the price to decline (the recent support area) and where the retail players, who previously freaked, sold, on the move since the high, have exhausted their selling..........this is the real question...........are we seeing a base-build versus a "bullish divergence" afterall, a bullish divergence is time-limited ...........in other words a base for the smart money is being ensued here over a period of time that works for them..........not necessarily for the reatail public..........

your thoughts on that?

Hi Joules
I'm with Kauri here - I can't really see anything in our volume and ranges that suggest anything except for the fact that at each lower high, volume is at it's peak, suggesting selling interest, which is what I had illustrated in my post.

As for what distinguishes bullish divergence that will simply fall over from that over a trend changing event is a break of the trend channel, on high volume and a nice green candle..... Until that occurs, I will be on the sidelines personally. I was just stating that we were seeing some positive elements that required confirmation before invoking a possible entry.

What did you see that was so special in the volume? I would be interested in your reply.

Cheers

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

reece55 said:
Hi Joules
I'm with Kauri here - I can't really see anything in our volume ...........

thanks for your honesty.........you know, honesty in understanding and knowledge are the coner-stones to advancing as a trader........thanks

the best that I can do and that you may do, in the future, is know the right questions to ask..........you could throw away the indicia and all the fancy packages if you could ask the right questions about price and who is involved........for now my question to you is:

In the expanse of the volume at the low, who bought and who sold..........therein lays your key.........I would be rude to simply pose an answer to that question because it would rob you of the ability to think (not-withstading that the question of "whom and at what time" is different for each trade set-up)...........

I am simply asking, who is at play.............for what purpose?

the only hint I may give at this stage is that all price movment (that is, up, down and sideways) benefits someone.......who?

Kauri · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Joules MM1 said:
erm.........so does that mean you think that "some" people are indecisve and some are not? if so, then who is being indecisive and who is not?

there is a very large bar at the bottom of the chart........what is that telling you?

errrmm... in my view... from the larger players... "Harvey Norman". as in the interminable T.V adverts.. no interest.. and the smaller investors..indecision... as evidenced by the posts for example in this thread... most people trying to second-guess the bottom of the current move but without any conviction...
any large bar with no follow-up strength indications is telling me nothing... but please tell me...what is it telling you???

rederob · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Joules MM1 said:
I am simply asking, who is at play.............for what purpose?

the only hint I may give at this stage is that all price movment (that is, up, down and sideways) benefits someone.......who?

Might be relevant to the traders.
I look at the numbers that make up the company's bottom line.
Those numbers are not as erratic as the stock market.
They also give the best clue as to the company's future direction.
Whether it takes a week, month or longer is not an issue for me, so I will read with interest who has the funniest slant on the technical front.

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Kauri said:
errrmm... in my view... from the larger players... "Harvey Norman". as in the interminable T.V adverts.. no interest.. and the smaller investors..indecision... as evidenced by the posts for example in this thread... most people trying to second-guess the bottom of the current move but without any conviction...
any large bar with no follow-up strength indications is telling me nothing... but please tell me...what is it telling you???

uh-huh.........youre still only answering half the price/volume question .......there are two sides to the trade and there are two sides to the volume.........again, who is buying/selling and who is not buying/selling.........think on this.........maybe you could ask this relevant question (imo) who best benefits from the price fall............one of the greatest traps set for retail traders is set by whom? when the retail trader sell on the emotion, then, who knows this and who gets to buy this "emotional" volume? not all traders are emotional..........in that case,who is and who is not?

does that clarify ?

you see, the answer is not so black and white all the time and for me to answer with "these people sold and these people bought (that) volume" is like me managing your trade for you, or, thinking for you..........that's one of the biggest pit-falls of a chat site..........everyone pumping their own dispositions rather than asking the right questions........haha..........its called a market.........

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

see that big volume spike? Do you think that the people who bought that volume are "indecisive".

volume has two sides.......buyers and sellers......who bought that volume, who sold that volume......

.......forget the elliott count........that hindsight stuff........concentrate on forward looking.......and who else is forward looking.......what are THEIR reasons?

reece55 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

OK, well if I had to draw one conclusion, I would say that the indecisiveness is benefiting the smart money, as the volume is way up on the gap down to that 7.50 level. And then, if we were going with this theme, the volume acceleration in the downtrend of late is benefiting the smart money in being able to acquire the stock at cheap levels prior to the resumption of the uptrend. In the last month, we have seen steady volume acceleration and a base forming at the 8.50 level....

Your views on summation???

I might add that even if we could accurately form this conclusion (which personally I think is a stab at best), from a risk/reward perspective I would still wait for the same signs I previously indicated before making a long entry. And to me, E/W provides a leading view on where a stock is going, not a lagging view.....

Cheers
Reece

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

reece55 said:
OK, well if I had to draw one conclusion, I would say that the indecisiveness is benefiting the smart money, as the volume is way up on the gap down to that 7.50 level. And then, if we were going with this theme, the volume acceleration in the downtrend of late is benefiting the smart money in being able to acquire the stock at cheap levels prior to the resumption of the uptrend. In the last month, we have seen steady volume acceleration and a base forming at the 8.50 level....

Your views on summation???

Cheers
Reece

so close, so close indeed........you see, volume activity tells you more than is currently summised, by you........you have just told me that you opine that the smart money is benefiting from indecision (theirs or yours?) so, did the people who bought all the volume do so with indecision? Did all the sellers of that volume sell with indecision ?

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Joules MM1 said:
so close, so close indeed........you see, volume activity tells you more than is currently summised, by you........you have just told me that you opine that the smart money is benefiting from indecision (theirs or yours?) so, did the people who bought all the volume do so with indecision? Did all the sellers of that volume sell with indecision ?

the position of price relative to the time that supply and demand "appears" to be biased is an important point to take into consideration.......the supply of sell versus the demand to be long on that stock/instrument ...........who is taking the long position? all that purging sell volume......who bought that.........do you think they consider themselves indecisive?

........in fact, I think the indecision is within the realms of the person asking the question........imo, the buyers are not indecisive.......so what makes them decisive? what makes them buy at this level when the retail sector is rushing for the gates?

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

reece55 said:
I might add that even if we could accurately form this conclusion (which personally I think is a stab at best), from a risk/reward perspective I would still wait for the same signs I previously indicated before making a long entry. And to me, E/W provides a leading view on where a stock is going, not a lagging view.....

Cheers
Reece

Ralph Nelson Elliott is one of my heros.........what I guy........how he uncovered the supply/demand in waves is outstanding.......but, he would ask today, the same he asked back then, where's the evidence? how do you put into context what you are seeing now? how are you INTERPRETING price versus position and time? What is your own emotional bias versus the alternative count?

good hunting.

OZ market closed today so a good time to reflect.

Cheers

Joules

Kauri · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Joules,
Have attached a chart with only price and vol, could you please share your understanding of what is happening on it re the smart-money and or retail traders that you refer to so as we can all learn from your invaluable experience , preferably without riddles or answering questions with more questions. After all

honesty in understanding and knowledge are the coner-stones to advancing as a trader

...

It's Snake Pliskin · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Joules,
Does it really matter who is buying or selling?

I think not. The fact the price went down and there was an increase in volume does indicate selling pressure. If the buyers were more in control maybe it would have gone up with follow through. It didn't and the subsequent action was down.

Weak. Period.

Lets fnd the low risk entry by BEING SURE of the strength.

Who is buyign selling does not matter. The result of that does.

Kauri, Reece,
You have missed what Joules picked up.

Cheers
Snake

It's Snake Pliskin · 12 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

reece55 said:
And to me, E/W provides a leading view on where a stock is going, not a lagging view.....
Cheers
Reece

Reece,

... a possible route it MAY take but it is not set in stone as I am sure you know. The trouble I find with EW is it is only confirmed in hindsight: "that was a wave 3"

"weakness" be prepared / go short.
"strength" take an entry / be prepared.

Simple stuff and in the case of PDN no long entry in sight unless scalping.

reece55 · 12 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

It's Snake Pliskin said:
Reece,

... a possible route it MAY take but it is not set in stone as I am sure you know. The trouble I find with EW is it is only confirmed in hindsight: "that was a wave 3"

"weakness" be prepared / go short.
"strength" take an entry / be prepared.

Simple stuff and in the case of PDN no long entry in sight unless scalping.

I do agree that EW is subjective, but still provides a good indication of a likely move. I wait for other confirmation before committing $$ however, although some here do make a good $$ from just EW (look at Kauri, he has come up with some rippers).

I am with you here Snake - PDN = downtrend, equals either sidelines or short until down trend broken.

Cheers
Reece

Kauri · 12 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

It's Snake Pliskin said:
Lets fnd the low risk entry by BEING SURE of the strength.

Who is buyign selling does not matter. The result of that does.

Kauri, Reece,
You have missed what Joules picked up.

Cheers
Snake

Hi Snake,
Rather than miss what Joules saw I was looking a little further afield, taking into consideration that the price has reacted with strong volume the three times it has touched my tentative upper chanell/resistance, but also noting that the four times it has touched the horizontal resistance it has also re-acted, albeit not as conclusively, but none the less rejected breaking it, hence my opinion of indecivesness. I thought that the tone of his posts suggested he saw more than just one rejection of the upper trendline and I suggested he share his thoughts. Maybe he was looking at the larger picture, maybe not.
Whether it goes up/down/sideways from here I don't know.. a prediction of the future direction, I don't have one.... but I am, like a good boy scout, ready to act if and when it shows its hand/strength.
Cheers
Kauri

barney · 12 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Howdy Lads, Just my 2 bobs worth ................. Lowish Volatility relative to the low sp, and divergance on price and Momentum (rising) over the last week or so tells me a turn around may be close (or at least a solid consolidation phase) ...... I wouldn't be brave enough to short it atm ........... Cheers.

alankew · 13 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Did anyone get to the bottom of Joules riddles and question and answer session.Joules are you hinting at a takeover perhaps,perhaps you could enlighten the rest of the board.Certainly taking a hammering

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