PDN - Paladin Energy

dj_420 · 4 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

hmmmm we whatever happens it seems SMM has now unhinged from value that PDN put on them

SMM 4.80
SMM 4.80 x 1.67 = $8.02

PDN 8.75
PDN 8.75 / 1.67 = $5.24

dont know what will come for SMM holders now

Kauri · 4 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

For mine PDN may have bottomed out but I have been caught out too many times trying to anticipate the absolute bottom. Will watch and see how she reacts to the minor supp/res at the $9 level... if it is the start of the next leg there will still be plenty of meat on the bone for my trading style if I find an entry around there once the trend change has been confirmed, or not.

alankew · 4 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

What do you guys think will happen with Areva/SMM/PDN now.Not an ideal situation so waht will PDN/Areva do now.Does Areva t/o PDN SMM or both!Any other alternatives

dj_420 · 5 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

not sure alan but SMM value has been disconnected from PDN since offer closed

SMM 4.63 equivalent 1.67 PDN = $7.73
PDN $9.14

i think now PDN have around 90% interest in valhulla, it will be back to business as much as possible until SMM to is sorted out.

at least SMM holders that accepted have CGT relief now. phew!

prawn_86 · 5 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

lots of bot buying happening now that the price is below 9.20.
seems to me that something is happening, especially with how quickly that 500000 got taken up

eMark · 7 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

WOW! I'm impressed. With the DOW down 129 points overnight, and the TSX down 200 points, I wake to find PDN on the TSX down only 7c. PDN TSX closed at 7.93, down 7c from 8.00 with a high of 8.02 and a low of 7.95. That's a pretty good show of strength considering PDN usually reacts violently with days like this. The question remains will PDN on the ASX follow suit?

j4mesa · 7 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

It seems that the one in ASX is reacting more "violently" as usual.......
It is just weird that it does not follow one another pretty closely yeah ?

dj_420 · 7 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

j4mesa said:
It seems that the one in ASX is reacting more "violently" as usual.......
It is just weird that it does not follow one another pretty closely yeah ?

yeah i agree makes me think australian investors are much more emotional fickle beasts than overseas counterparts

billhill · 7 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

daredevil said:
What value do people see in PDN at current prices? It has returned nil since January 2007. One wonders whether its best off to concentrate on potential winners from a lower base.

PDN has had its run , evidence is simply no interest in it above nine. Its market cap is over 6 billion dollars. Cash flow? None.

One thing one must remember about this company is they have one active mine and will soon commission another. In australia apart from ERA and the diversified miners no other U companies are producing or likely close to doing so. This gives PDN a huge advantage as they have guaranteed exposure to current high U prices. In a sector that still has plenty of upside they are in a better position then most IMO.

rederob · 7 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

daredevil said:
Its market cap is over 6 billion dollars. Cash flow? None.

Oh, so PDN is giving away yellow cake.
Who is a donkey?

It is now a 100 characters so I could post!

rederob · 7 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

billhill said:
In a sector that still has plenty of upside they are in a better position then most IMO.

Every now and then a company hits a price that is outstanding value given the market and its attendant fundamentals.
That's where PDN is at the moment.
In a year's time everyone that jumped onto a hot uranium explorer that crashed and burned will wonder why they did not at least dabble in PDN.
I think it was BSD or Reece telling me BHP around $26 in the latter part of last year was a risky buy. Well, I got its dividend, sold some into the buyback, and am still up around 35% with the leftover holdings.
I thought BHP back then was a lay down misere.
By way of comparison, PDN will make my BHP adventure look rather gay.

billhill · 7 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

rederob said:
Every now and then a company hits a price that is outstanding value given the market and its attendant fundamentals.

Indeed. Negative sentiment towards the U sector of late seems to have created significant value. People got a little scared and started to jump ship because of excessive speculation and mania. The fundamentals haven't changed (if anything they are better, higher U price) and i don't think it will be long before people realise this and money starts returning albeit in a more sustained manner. Plus i beleive we are headed for another resources rally (BHP with a forward PE of 6ish, rediculously cheap) which will likely bode well for "good" uranium companies also.

It's Snake Pliskin · 8 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fundamentally what is the price likely to be worth in a year? PDN that is.

Maybe the current price is a reflection of the future expectation.

I don't know.

rederob · 8 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

It's Snake Pliskin said:
Fundamentally what is the price likely to be worth in a year? PDN that is.

Maybe the current price is a reflection of the future expectation.

I don't know.

As in investor it's somewhat irrelevant trying to pick next year's price.
The issue relates to buying a stock that will make one money.
The probability of this stock NOT performing exceptionally well in the months ahead is very low.
PDN will pocket well over $100/lb for its unhedged uranium,
PDN is targeting production of over 2.5 million pounds per year - with a 17 year life span at just one of its mines.
So we are looking at profits in AUD terms conservatively over half a billion dollars per year at present uranium prices.
At least you are honest, Snake, when you say you don't know.

Dutchy3 · 10 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Hi Dline

From recent PM

This stock at an interesting juncture ...

See the Big Black with the red arrow ... The arrow signifies volume > 150% of the 50 period average volume ... and has cast a shadow over the price since. Here's the rub though the blue oval around the Hanging Figure stopped any further price decline ... the subsequent move to 1050 failed ... and yet 850 now holds too ...

The sum of this for me is that momentum has dropped away ...

This stock will require new stronger hands to lift it from here through 1050 ... just as well the news is positive.

reece55 · 10 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

rederob said:
Every now and then a company hits a price that is outstanding value given the market and its attendant fundamentals.
That's where PDN is at the moment.
In a year's time everyone that jumped onto a hot uranium explorer that crashed and burned will wonder why they did not at least dabble in PDN.
I think it was BSD or Reece telling me BHP around $26 in the latter part of last year was a risky buy. Well, I got its dividend, sold some into the buyback, and am still up around 35% with the leftover holdings.
I thought BHP back then was a lay down misere.
By way of comparison, PDN will make my BHP adventure look rather gay.

Hey Rederob, I think it was me telling you that BHP was a risk at $26. Mind you, I bought when it was looking nice at 26.50 via a warrant and made 20% in a day prior to the half year results announcement, so I didn't really miss out here!!!

Now, good ole PDN - I think I remember copping grief at about $10 after the summit bid was announced when I said that until that was put away, you would want to stay away - what do you know, the chart doesn't look to pretty......

At the moment, PDN is showing lower highs and lower lows, so we really need some confirmation here that PDN wants to go higher. I see crucial support at the 7.50~ level, but personally I don't think we will get that low. Friday's Doji means the stock will most likely recover on Tuesday with the general market, but to me it will take some committed buyers to move it out of the down trend it's in at the moment. However, we are seeing some bullish movement on our MACD, so perhaps a recovery it not too far away.

Best of luck to all holders here.

rederob · 10 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Cheers Reece
The chart is not endearing, and it is obvious!
However, as a long termer in the market, the hunt for value is the holy grail,
By every measure PDN now represents outstanding value.
The foray into SMM has too many worrying unnecessarily.
If I see PDN dip into the $7 range, I will add some more, probably......
What the mug punters fail to understand is that PDN has moved from a cash burn explorer to a fully fledged producer: Read cash cow. And since that happened the price of its product has increased around 80%. Yet the stock's price has gone nowhere.
With SMM joining its stables, and the price of uranium set for further - perhaps less robust - increases, PDN really is a no brainer.
I know there are no guarantees in the market, but this one is about as good as it gets.
I'm not going to argue the toss a dollar either way; it's just not worth the anal analysis.

dlineinvestor · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PDN's turnaround can occur but to confirm I will be watching my price oscillator. When it turns up, it will be the "first" sign. Unfortunately last weeks candle had a high level of price rejection. Similar to the first candle that started the downturn. If S/P crosses the EMA line another bearish confirmation will take place.

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

dlineinvestor said:
PDN's turnaround can occur but to confirm I will be watching my price oscillator. When it turns up, it will be the "first" sign. Unfortunately last weeks candle had a high level of price rejection. Similar to the first candle that started the downturn. If S/P crosses the EMA line another bearish confirmation will take place.

mate, I'm scratcing my head on your post...........did you enter on the "price oscillator" xover and then exit on the next xover signal ? cos if you did then you lost a swag of percentage.........also where the exit xover signal occurs the price immediately swings back upto retest the previous highest high............also that "support" level ..........Ive never seen such a "suggested" support level......that's a curious one, please exapnd on that one, thanks

mm1

Joules MM1 · 11 June 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

reece55 said:
Hey Rederob, I think it was me telling you that BHP was a risk at $26. Mind you, I bought when it was looking nice at 26.50 via a warrant and made 20% in a day prior to the half year results announcement, so I didn't really miss out here!!!

Now, good ole PDN - I think I remember copping grief at about $10 after the summit bid was announced when I said that until that was put away, you would want to stay away - what do you know, the chart doesn't look to pretty......

At the moment, PDN is showing lower highs and lower lows, so we really need some confirmation here that PDN wants to go higher. I see crucial support at the 7.50~ level, but personally I don't think we will get that low. Friday's Doji means the stock will most likely recover on Tuesday with the general market, but to me it will take some committed buyers to move it out of the down trend it's in at the moment. However, we are seeing some bullish movement on our MACD, so perhaps a recovery it not too far away.

Best of luck to all holders here.

What's the volume telling you? Who is the buyer and who is the seller?

that the m/a "signal" shows a bullish divergence...........my question is; when is a divergence merely a signal of lessening sells versus increasing buy-up pressure? Is the divergence really a bullish signal (revert to strong trend up) or are we seeing a level where the largest players, who have assisted the price to decline (the recent support area) and where the retail players, who previously freaked, sold, on the move since the high, have exhausted their selling..........this is the real question...........are we seeing a base-build versus a "bullish divergence" afterall, a bullish divergence is time-limited ...........in other words a base for the smart money is being ensued here over a period of time that works for them..........not necessarily for the reatail public..........

your thoughts on that?

PDN - Paladin Energy

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