PDN - Paladin Energy

Sean K · 3 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
Indeed the market cap is obscene then there is nothing else to compare it to as we have not had a U boom in the past

Yes, agree, no U boom like this in the past that I know of.

There was some type of Nickel boom wasn't there? How did that end up. I don't know all the details, but I have a feeling it was pain. Is that anything like this? Maybe not.

Dot com? Hard to compare apples with oranges but the reason the tech stocks flew was becasue of the 'potential' that the market saw in them, not just sentiment, or traders. Perhaps.

I am definately not saying all these U stocks are going to crash. I don't know enough about economics or even the industry to make a truely qualified comment. Plus, I just don't know what's going to happen with the supply demand equation in say 10-15 years, when all these new mines come on line. At what point does the market realise that once the juniors get to production, uranium spot price will be back at $10? Maybe. Or, does the supply outstrip demand forever? Unlikely.

Obviously though, PDN isn't in this situation. It's just about to start production so it's going to see the full value of the short to mid term appreciation of uranium spot. Perhaps one of the only ones along with current producers who haven't hedged their contacts too greatly.

lancer · 3 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
Indeed the market cap is obscene then there is nothing else to compare it to as we have not had a U boom in the past

I concur. However this stock (and the rest of Juniors) are most likely being priced off the current spot price, which may justify it more so. For SURE nothing esle has risen like the spot price for Uranium, EVER in the sector. And PDN is the closest to mine especially compared to all the rest

billhill · 3 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I think we can definitely say that PDN and the whole uranium sector is substantially overpriced. However saying that from the research i have done uranium demand is going to continue to outstrip supply for many years to come. So the question is whether a rising uranium price is a sufficient reason for people to continue to buy into the sector? Would overvaluation result in a crash in U shares.

Fab · 3 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

billhill said:
I think we can definitely say that PDN and the whole uranium sector is substantially overpriced. However saying that from the research i have done uranium demand is going to continue to outstrip supply for many years to come. So the question is whether a rising uranium price is a sufficient reason for people to continue to buy into the sector? Would overvaluation result in a crash in U shares.

PDN is now producing and that is very valuable when other are still trying to extract the stuff. I think PDN is going through a short term correction after a big rise in the last few days.

bigdog · 3 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

ASX ann PDN 1:57 PM GRD's ann:Commissioning of Langer Heinrich Uranium Project

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00682888

Fab · 3 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Profit taking today ? I was expecting better after today annoucement.

Fab · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Taking an hamering today but then it is not the only one. I am wondering where the next resistance point is ?

Sean K · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
Taking an hamering today but then it is not the only one. I am wondering where the next resistance point is ?

Should be support between $6.60 and $7.50.

Hard to see this current trend channel continuing, but stranger things have happened.

Rafa · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

cheers for the chart kennas...
given it was only yesterday you were talking about locking in those gains, how did you go?

I still hold all my U stocks, and overall, i am amazed that they have only fallen ONLY about 5%.... after almost all of them doubled in the matter of months!

IF i had liquidated yesterday, i dare say i would be buying back in today...

what are your thoughts on the U sector in particular?

Fab · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I believe stock like PDN will bounce back are they are the one that are close to generate U

Sean K · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Rafa said:
cheers for the chart kennas...
given it was only yesterday you were talking about locking in those gains, how did you go?

I still hold all my U stocks, and overall, i am amazed that they have only fallen ONLY about 5%.... after almost all of them doubled in the matter of months!

IF i had liquidated yesterday, i dare say i would be buying back in today...

what are your thoughts on the U sector in particular?

I didn't sell anything

I'm riding that wave right up to the edge, and probably over it!

I think today might be part of a healthy break in the upward trend for uranium. NOTHING goes straight up forever and there will ALWAYS be corrections.

I don't think it's a bubble yet, but it's bubbly close! I might be wrong and this is the start of the end but some stocks have a little way to go and the ones with known resources that are likely to start mining in the next few years should stay afloat. PDN is one of them, but is it worth $4.5b?

Perhaps the Christmas period and Little Johnny's 'Go Nuclear Taskforce' have put the recent bomb under U stocks and the U phoria is over for a little while until Little Kevie changes Labor policy for the States to follow......Maybe a pause until the run up to April..........

Overall, risky game this - backing company's riding a wave of speculative trading money. Just where is the top? I'm treading very carefully at the moment. Lost too much in 99 to not have a parachute ready.

Fab · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

kennas said:
I didn't sell anything

I'm riding that wave right up to the edge, and probably over it!

I think today might be part of a healthy break in the upward trend for uranium. NOTHING goes straight up forever and there will ALWAYS be corrections.

I don't think it's a bubble yet, but it's bubbly close! I might be wrong and this is the start of the end but some stocks have a little way to go and the ones with known resources that are likely to start mining in the next few years should stay afloat. PDN is one of them, but is it worth $4.5b?

Perhaps the Christmas period and Little Johnny's 'Go Nuclear Taskforce' have put the recent bomb under U stocks and the U phoria is over for a little while until Little Kevie changes Labor policy for the States to follow......Maybe a pause until the run up to April..........

Overall, risky game this - backing company's riding a wave of speculative trading money. Just where is the top? I'm treading very carefully at the moment. Lost too much in 99 to not have a parachute ready.

Yep that sounds like a good analysis. i could not help nevertheless I could not help myself today and bought some more BHP as I believe they are really undervalue at the moment

Rafa · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

so far, corrections in U stocks have lasted no more than a day or two...
URA for example, has gone up 80 cents (from 80 cents) in 5 days, but today its barely fallen 10 cents!

Yeah, tomorrow is going to be interesting... but of all the resources, i am most confident about Uranium.

I added a bit more AGS today....

As for the rest of the commodoties, their corrections last a lot longer. I thought one was coming soon, so I sold ZFX yesterday cause technically that was looking very toppy...

But I still held INL... more for the technology rather than the zinc.

Fab · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Rafa said:
so far, corrections in U stocks have lasted no more than a day or two...
URA for example, has gone up 80 cents (from 80 cents) in 5 days, but today its barely fallen 10 cents!

Yeah, tomorrow is going to be interesting... but of all the resources, i am most confident about Uranium.

I added a bit more AGS today....

As for the rest of the commodoties, their corrections last a lot longer. I thought one was coming soon, so I sold ZFX yesterday cause technically that was looking very toppy...

But I still held INL... more for the technology rather than the zinc.

I hope you are right about the U stock correction not lasting too long.
I am wondering if PDN is actually already producing or are we still waiting for start of production. I know I stated that they started producing but now I have a doubt.If they are not yet then when they go into prod this should boost them back up

tybutler · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
I hope you are right about the U stock correction not lasting too long.
I am wondering if PDN is actually already producing or are we still waiting for start of production. I know I stated that they started producing but now I have a doubt.If they are not yet then when they go into prod this should boost them back up

What do you mean "I stated that they started producing....". Isn't that what Paladin said in their press release??? Do you ever have any facts Fab, or do you only make vague comments about nothing, and always ask for basic information which you could easily find yourself???

Fab · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

tybutler said:
What do you mean "I stated that they started producing....". Isn't that what Paladin said in their press release??? Do you ever have any facts Fab, or do you only make vague comments about nothing, and always ask for basic information which you could easily find yourself???

Just read the announcement quickly that is why I could not remember.

nizar · 4 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
I am wondering if PDN is actually already producing or are we still waiting for start of production. I know I stated that they started producing but now I have a doubt.If they are not yet then when they go into prod this should boost them back up

LOL if you base your stock picking on fundamentals, then do some research buddy. Please.

Fab · 5 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

nizar said:
LOL if you base your stock picking on fundamentals, then do some research buddy. Please.

I actually bought into this one because I believe in Nuclear technology and they were at the time the closest to production and owning asset overseas which are easier to develop than Oz one. That is my fundamental analysis of this stock. I did not do too bad as I bought at $2.45. My problem now is to know when to sell as pdn has corrected quite strongly in the last few days. I still think it will go above $10 and more if the U mining policy is changed in June

lancer · 5 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
I actually bought into this one because I believe in Nuclear technology and they were at the time the closest to production and owning asset overseas which are easier to develop than Oz one. That is my fundamental analysis of this stock. I did not do too bad as I bought at $2.45. My problem now is to know when to sell as pdn has corrected quite strongly in the last few days. I still think it will go above $10 and more if the U mining policy is changed in June

Wow nice, as much as I like research sometimes looking at the big picture works better than finding a stock that has a good pe ratio etc....Especially in the case of PDN which you would have never bought if you based it on earnings and such...Good job!

Sean K · 5 January 2007

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Fab said:
I actually bought into this one because I believe in Nuclear technology and they were at the time the closest to production and owning asset overseas which are easier to develop than Oz one. That is my fundamental analysis of this stock. I did not do too bad as I bought at $2.45. My problem now is to know when to sell as pdn has corrected quite strongly in the last few days. I still think it will go above $10 and more if the U mining policy is changed in June

Fab, why is there so much upside in PDN if the Aust policy is changed in June, and why $10+?

Firstly, the Labor Party national conference is in April which is when the policy will be changed. Then it will take some time for the Labor State Govs to ratify the decision. This could take any time up to 6 months probably.

Second, do you think that PDNs upside is in their Australian projects? Their projects in Australia are JVs with SMM and EME. Sure the IUJV is a good project but I'm not sure about Bigryli yet.

With a $10 sp what market cap do you have for PDN?

PDN - Paladin Energy

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